Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (Issue No. 64)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement


Technical Annex

Epidemiology is the study of how diseases spread within populations. One way we do this is using our best understanding of the way the infection is passed on and how it affects people who catch it to create mathematical simulations. Because people who catch Covid-19 have a relatively long period in which they can pass it on to others before they begin to have symptoms, and the majority of people infected with the virus will experience mild symptoms, this "epidemiological modelling" provides insights into the epidemic that cannot easily be measured through testing e.g. of those with symptoms, as it estimates the total number of new daily infections and infectious people, including those who are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms.

Modelling also allows us to make short-term forecasts of what may happen with a degree of uncertainty. These can be used in health care and other planning. The modelling in this research findings is undertaken using different types of data which going forward aims to both model the progress of the epidemic in Scotland and provide early indications of where any changes are taking place.

The delivery of the vaccination programme will offer protection against severe disease and death. The modelling includes assumptions about compliance with restrictions and vaccine take-up. Work is still ongoing to understand how many vaccinated people might still spread the virus if infected. As Covid-19 is a new disease there remain uncertainties associated with vaccine effectiveness. Furthermore, there is a risk that new variants emerge for which immunisation is less effective.

How the modelling compares to the real data as it emerges

The following charts show the history of our modelling projections in comparison to estimates of the actual data. The infections projections were largely accurate during October to mid-December and from mid‑January onward. During mid-December to mid-January, the projections underestimated the number of infections, due to the unforeseen effects of the new variant.

Figure 22: Infections projections versus actuals, for historical projections published between one and two weeks before the actual data came in.
A combination line and scatter graph comparing infections projections against actuals.

Hospital bed projections have generally been more precise than infections estimates due to being partially based on already known information about numbers of current infections, and number of people already in hospital. The projections are for number of people in hospital due to Covid-19, which is slightly different to the actuals, which are number of people in hospital within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test.

Figure 23: Hospital bed projections versus actuals, for historical projections published between one and two weeks before the actual data came in.
A combination line and scatter graph comparing hospital bed occupancy projections against actuals.

As with hospital beds, ICU bed projections have generally been more precise than infections. The projections are for number of people in ICU due to Covid-19. The actuals are number of people in ICU within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test up to 20 January, after which they include people in ICU over the 28 day limit.

Figure 24: ICU bed projections versus actuals, for historical projections published between one and two weeks before the actual data came in.
A combination line and scatter graph comparing ICU occupancy projections against actuals.
Table 1: Probability of local authority areas exceeding thresholds of cases per 100K (22nd to 28th August 2021), data to 9th August.
  Probability of exceeding (cases per 100k)
Local Authority (LA) 50 100 300 500
Aberdeen City 75-100% 50-75% 5-15% 0-5%
Aberdeenshire 75-100% 50-75% 5-15% 0-5%
Angus 50-75% 15-25% 0-5% 0-5%
Argyll and Bute 75-100% 25-50% 5-15% 0-5%
City of Edinburgh 75-100% 50-75% 25-50% 25-50%
Clackmannanshire 50-75% 25-50% 0-5% 0-5%
Dumfries & Galloway 75-100% 75-100% 25-50% 5-15%
Dundee City 75-100% 25-50% 0-5% 0-5%
East Ayrshire 75-100% 50-75% 5-15% 0-5%
East Dunbartonshire 75-100% 50-75% 5-15% 0-5%
East Lothian 75-100% 50-75% 15-25% 5-15%
East Renfrewshire 75-100% 50-75% 5-15% 0-5%
Falkirk 75-100% 50-75% 5-15% 0-5%
Fife 75-100% 75-100% 25-50% 25-50%
Glasgow City 75-100% 75-100% 25-50% 25-50%
Highland 75-100% 50-75% 15-25% 5-15%
Inverclyde 75-100% 50-75% 0-5% 0-5%
Midlothian 75-100% 75-100% 5-15% 0-5%
Moray 75-100% 25-50% 0-5% 0-5%
Na h-Eileanan Siar 25-50% 15-25% 0-5% 0-5%
North Ayrshire 75-100% 75-100% 15-25% 5-15%
North Lanarkshire 75-100% 75-100% 25-50% 25-50%
Orkney Islands 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5%
Perth and Kinross 75-100% 25-50% 5-15% 0-5%
Renfrewshire 75-100% 50-75% 15-25% 0-5%
Scottish Borders 75-100% 50-75% 5-15% 0-5%
Shetland Islands 15-25% 5-15% 0-5% 0-5%
South Ayrshire 75-100% 50-75% 5-15% 0-5%
South Lanarkshire 75-100% 75-100% 25-50% 15-25%
Stirling 75-100% 50-75% 5-15% 0-5%
West Dunbartonshire 75-100% 50-75% 5-15% 5-15%
West Lothian 75-100% 75-100% 15-25% 0-5%

What levels of Covid-19 are indicated by wastewater (WW) data?

Table 2 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised WW Covid-19 levels in the weeks beginning the 24th July and 31st July, with no estimate for error. This is given in Million gene copies per person, which approximately corresponds to new cases per 100,000 per day. Coverage is given as percentage of LA inhabitants covered by a wastewater Covid‑19 sampling site delivering data during this period[15].

Table 2: Average daily cases per 100k as given by WW data
Local authority (LA) Average daily WW case estimate, with outliers included Average daily WW case estimate, with outliers removed Coverage[16]
w/b 28th July w/b 4th August w/b 28th July w/b 4th August
Aberdeen City 40 18 40 18 80%
Aberdeenshire 22 16 21 15 35%
Angus 31 35 31 35 56%
Argyll and Bute 0%
City of Edinburgh 26 46 26 46 97%
Clackmannanshire 41 55 41 36 70%
Dumfries & Galloway 13 29 13 29 27%
Dundee City 35 44 35 44 100%
East Ayrshire 27 23 27 23 57%
East Dunbartonshire 30 38 30 38 99%
East Lothian 26 46 26 46 56%
East Renfrewshire 32 32 0%
Falkirk 17 26 17 26 62%
Fife 59 30 59 30 47%
Glasgow City 49 38 49 38 35%
Highland 42 20 38 20 37%
Inverclyde 58 58 0%
Midlothian 26 46 26 46 73%
Moray 17 20 17 14 55%
Na h-Eileanan Siar 10 10 0%
North Ayrshire 21 13 21 13 83%
North Lanarkshire 84 58 78 58 30%
Orkney Islands 6 12 6 12 34%
Perth and Kinross 21 0 21 0 9%
Renfrewshire 42 42 0%
Scottish Borders 20 29 20 26 40%
Shetland Islands 3 2 3 2 29%
South Ayrshire 27 23 27 23 77%
South Lanarkshire 75 50 75 50 33%
Stirling 16 17 16 17 63%
West Dunbartonshire 27 38 27 38 48%
West Lothian 92 25 27 25 53%

Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot

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