Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.109)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.


Technical Annex

What levels of Covid-19 are indicated by wastewater data?

Table 1 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised wastewater Covid-19 levels in the weeks ending 16th and 23rd September 2022, with no estimate for error. This is given in Million gene copies per person per day. Coverage is given as percentage of inhabitants in each local authority covered by a wastewater Covid‑19 sampling site delivering data during this period.

Table 1. Average Covid-19 wastewater levels (Mgc/p/d) [6].

Local Authority (LA)

w/e 16th September

w/e 23rd September

Coverage

Aberdeen City

51

52

99 %

Aberdeenshire

34

35

49 %

Angus

47

47

68 %

Argyll and Bute

11

0 %

City of Edinburgh

58

82

98 %

Clackmannanshire

61

67

92 %

Dumfries and Galloway

19

21

30 %

Dundee City

61

61

100 %

East Ayrshire

73

86

57 %

East Dunbartonshire

68

164

99 %

East Lothian

52

66

74 %

East Renfrewshire

39

66

89 %

Falkirk

46

39

96 %

Fife

55

33

84 %

Glasgow City

52

93

98 %

Highland

35

61

32 %

Inverclyde

49

76

92 %

Midlothian

62

75

88 %

Moray

71

34

70 %

Na h-Eileanan Siar

14

7

21 %

North Ayrshire

54

49

84 %

North Lanarkshire

83

96

95 %

Orkney Islands

14

34 %

Perth and Kinross

48

32

45 %

Renfrewshire

59

75

57 %

Scottish Borders

29

35

56 %

Shetland Islands

18

5

29 %

South Ayrshire

66

86

77 %

South Lanarkshire

81

70

86 %

Stirling

18

20

63 %

West Dunbartonshire

37

164

48 %

West Lothian

63

34

95 %

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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