Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (Issue No.107)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.


Technical Annex

What levels of Covid-19 are indicated by wastewater data?

Table 1 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised wastewater Covid-19 levels in the weeks ending 18th and 25th August 2022[3], with no estimate for error. This is given in Million gene copies per person per day. Coverage is given as percentage of inhabitants in each local authority covered by a wastewater Covid‑19 sampling site delivering data during this period.

Table 1. Average Covid-19 wastewater levels (Mgc/p/d) [4].
Local Authority (LA) w/e 18th August w/e 25th August Coverage
Aberdeen City 69 73 99 %
Aberdeenshire 50 48 50 %
Angus 46 74 68 %
Argyll and Bute 14 156 23 %
City of Edinburgh 88 108 98 %
Clackmannanshire 39 67 92 %
Dumfries and Galloway 20 43 39 %
Dundee City 52 81 100 %
East Ayrshire 60 100 72 %
East Dunbartonshire 57 84 99 %
East Lothian 71 89 74 %
East Renfrewshire 22 75 89 %
Falkirk 40 68 96 %
Fife 66 58 84 %
Glasgow City 34 67 98 %
Highland 45 61 48 %
Inverclyde 34 36 98 %
Midlothian 82 107 88 %
Moray 96 67 70 %
Na h-Eileanan Siar 0 %
North Ayrshire 39 59 92 %
North Lanarkshire 50 44 95 %
Orkney Islands 112 34 %
Perth and Kinross 40 37 45 %
Renfrewshire 55 51 97 %
Scottish Borders 28 30 59 %
Shetland Islands 0 %
South Ayrshire 59 103 77 %
South Lanarkshire 41 44 88 %
Stirling 37 18 63 %
West Dunbartonshire 53 108 98 %
West Lothian 33 42 95 %

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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