Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper

This paper summarises the range of evidence available on vaccination certification schemes. Evidence is drawn from clinical and scientific literature, from public opinion and from international experience.


Annex C - Societal views

Certification and vaccination

Considering the relationship between vaccine uptake and certification, some studies have shown that for some 'delayers', vaccine passports were perceived to be a reason why they would get vaccinated in the future. For others vaccine passports were controversial, and were seen as coercive measures of the global vaccination plan to control the population and violate privacy[275] [276].

For example, research suggests that control measures, such as domestic vaccine passports, may have detrimental effects on people's autonomy, motivation, and willingness to get vaccinated. The decrease is larger if passports were required for domestic use rather than for facilitating international travel[277] [278] [279] [280] [281]. Further, the introduction of certification for leisure venues does not appear to increase willingness to be vaccinated amongst the most vaccine hesitant, with a decrease seen if certification is required for recreational settings[282].

An important dimension of a certification scheme is how it affects vaccine take-up in hesitant groups and it is recognised there is balance to be struck between it being an incentive for busy people ('delayers') but also something which may cause anxiety in those who distrust the vaccination or the government[283] [284] [285] [286]. Related to this researchers have also considered the 'unintended effects' of certification schemes[287].

Further, several studies have concluded that successful vaccine rollout will only be achieved by ensuring community engagement: involving trusted community leaders, overcoming cultural, socioeconomic, and political barriers that lead to mistrust and hinder uptake of vaccines [288] [289] [290].

Public attitudes – polling and academic literature

Research[291] reports the results of two large surveys in the United Kingdom, that uncover people's attitudes towards various tracking technologies. The results show that in the main, there is widespread acceptance for co-location tracking and immunity passports although around 20% of the public strongly oppose passports. Further research has described public attitudes towards certification, and its possible impact on uptake of testing and vaccination and protective behaviours[292].

YouGov polling 7-8 April 'Would you support or oppose the following places requiring people to provide a COVID certificate to visit them so they can remove social distancing restrictions?' Survey results

YouGov polling 28-29 July 'Some people have suggested introducing a system of "vaccine passports". This system would involve giving everyone a vaccine passport once they have received their COVID-19 vaccines, and allowing services and venues to reopen so long as they only serve those who have already been vaccinated (i.e. those who can show their vaccine passport). In principle, would you support or oppose introducing such a system' Survey results

  • Over half of 25-49 year olds (53%), and seven in ten of those 50 and over (70%) would support their introduction[293] while 38% of 18-24 years old are supportive. In that age group 14% is undecided and 48% 'somewhat' or 'strongly oppose' the idea.

YouGov polling 28-29 July 'Once everyone has been offered a COVID-19 vaccine, do you think each of the following places should or should not require people to provide a "vaccine passport" to visit them?' Survey results

  • Two thirds of people (67%) think that care homes should require people to provide a 'vaccine passport' for visitors. Around half of people also think that pubs and bars (54%), gyms (53%) and cinemas (52%) should require people to show a vaccine passport before being allowed to enter.

Data tables and methodology for Scotland sample 24-25th August 2021

Methodology: This survey has been conducted using an online interview administered to members of the YouGov Plc UK panel of 800,000+ individuals who have agreed to take part in surveys. Emails are sent to panellists selected at random from the base sample. The e-mail invites them to take part in a survey and provides a generic survey link. Once a panel member clicks on the link they are sent to the survey that they are most required for, according to the sample definition and quotas. (The sample definition could be "GB adult population" or a subset such as "GB adult females"). Invitations to surveys don't expire and respondents can be sent to any available survey. The responding sample is weighted to the profile of the sample definition to provide a representative reporting sample. The profile is normally derived from census data or, if not available from the census, from industry accepted data. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all Scottish adults (aged 18+).

Question text 'One possible approach to allow entry to venues such as stadiums, arenas and nightclubs is to introduce a Covid certification scheme. The exact details of this would need to be confirmed but an example may involve showing a certificate that proves you have been fully vaccinated or tested negative in the last 48 hours. To what extent do you agree or disagree with these statements about using covid certification to allow entry to certain venues?'
Base: All excluding those who would not normally attend this type of event

(n = c.800)

In future there may be an app which could offer proof in digital form of Covid vaccination and/or outcome of a recent PCR Test. This could enable entry to certain venues, allow participation in certain activities or allow international travel. If this app becomes available, how likely will you be to download and use it? If I wanted to go to a venue or event, having this scheme in place would make me feel more comfortable doing this I would be happy to share my vaccination and testing status by using a certificate if it means things can resume Even if vaccinated I would prefer that everyone do a test beforehand, rather than needing to prove and share vaccination status This sounds like more trouble than it's worth to attend an event at the moment
Unweighted base 1007 Unweighted base 1007 Unweighted base 1007 Unweighted base 1007 Unweighted base 1007
Base: All Scottish Adults 1007 Base: All Scottish Adults 1007 Base: All Scottish Adults 1007 Base: All Scottish Adults 1007 Base: All Scottish Adults 1007
Definitely will 32% Strongly agree 23% Strongly agree 32% Strongly agree 16% Strongly agree 13%
Probably will 23% Tend to agree 26% Tend to agree 28% Tend to agree 25% Tend to agree 14%
May or may not 14% Neither agree nor disagree 15% Neither agree nor disagree 10% Neither agree nor disagree 19% Neither agree nor disagree 19%
Probably will not 9% Tend to disagree 7% Tend to disagree 4% Tend to disagree 13% Tend to disagree 19%
Definitely will not 14% Strongly disagree 9% Strongly disagree 7% Strongly disagree 9% Strongly disagree 18%
Don't know 8% Not applicable – I wouldn't normally attend this type of venue or event 20% Not applicable – I wouldn't normally attend this type of venue or event 20% Not applicable – I wouldn't normally attend this type of venue or event 18% Not applicable – I wouldn't normally attend this type of venue or event 17%
I worry that although people have been vaccinated not everyone will have immunity after one dose I worry that this system is not fool proof – people may not do the rapid flow test themselves or not do it properly
Unweighted base 1007 Unweighted base 1007
Base: All Scottish Adults 1007 Base: All Scottish Adults 1007
Strongly agree 19% Strongly agree 26%
Tend to agree 32% Tend to agree 31%
Neither agree nor disagree 21% Neither agree nor disagree 18%
Tend to disagree 6% Tend to disagree 7%
Strongly disagree 4% Strongly disagree 2%
Not applicable – I wouldn't normally attend this type of venue or event 17% Not applicable – I wouldn't normally attend this type of venue or event 15%

How likely or unlikely are you to be vaccinated for COVID-19 when a vaccine becomes available to you? (Please select a number between 0 and 10, where 0 means 'extremely unlikely' and 10 means 'extremely likely') If you have already received your first vaccination, please tell us how likely or unlikely you are to have your second.

How likely or unlikely are you to be vaccinated for COVID-19 when a vaccine becomes available to you? (Please select a number between 0 and 10, where 0 means 'extremely unlikely' and 10 means 'extremely likely') If you have already received your first vaccination, please tell us how likely or unlikely you are to have your second.
Unweighted base 80 Unweighted base 40
Base: All Scottish adults who are awaiting either their 1st or their 2nd vaccination 112 Base: Not yet received vaccination 46
0 - Extremely unlikely 20% 39%
1 - -
2 4% 10%
3 3% 4%
4 5% 7%
5 4% -
6 5% 10%
7 5% 3%
8 5% 2%
9 1% -
10 - Extremely likely 32% 4%
Don't know 12% 20%
Prefer not to say 3% -

Data tables and methodology for Scotland sample 21-22 Sep 2021

Methodology: This survey has been conducted using an online interview administered to members of the YouGov Plc UK panel of 800,000+ individuals who have agreed to take part in surveys. Emails are sent to panellists selected at random from the base sample. The e-mail invites them to take part in a survey and provides a generic survey link. Once a panel member clicks on the link they are sent to the survey that they are most required for, according to the sample definition and quotas. (The sample definition could be "GB adult population" or a subset such as "GB adult females"). Invitations to surveys don't expire and respondents can be sent to any available survey. The responding sample is weighted to the profile of the sample definition to provide a representative reporting sample. The profile is normally derived from census data or, if not available from the census, from industry accepted data. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all Scottish adults (aged 18+).

Question text 'From 1 October, the Scottish Government intends to introduce a vaccine certification scheme for entry to nightclubs and similar settings and large events (that is unseated indoor live events with more than 500 people in the audience, unseated outdoor live events with more than 4,000 people in the audience, and any event that has more than 10,000 people in attendance). People visiting these venues or attending events of this size will have to show proof that they are fully vaccinated or exempt from vaccination before entering. The easiest way of doing this will be to show a QR code on the new Covid Status app, but you can also download a certificate or obtain a letter by visiting nhsinform.scot'

Still thinking about the vaccine certification scheme planned to start in Scotland in October…To what extent do you support or oppose the introduction of this scheme? Will the introduction of the covid vaccine certification scheme make you more or less likely to visit a venue or attend an event that requires such a vaccine certificate for entry? I believe that the covid vaccine certification scheme is a good way to help control the spread of the virus I would like to see the scheme rolled out to other types of venue and events I don't think this type of scheme is fair on those who aren't vaccinated
Unweighted Base 1005 Unweighted Base 1005 Unweighted Base 1005 Unweighted Base 1005 Unweighted Base 1005
Base All Scottish adults 1005 Base: All Scottish adults 1005 Base: All Scottish Adults 1005 Base: All Scottish Adults 1005 Base: All Scottish Adults 1005
Strongly Support 33% Much more likely 9% Strongly agree 19% Strongly agree 19% Strongly agree 14%
Tend to Support 23% Slightly more likely 14% Tend to agree 33% Tend to agree 26% Tend to agree 14%
Neither support nor oppose 15% Neither more or less likely 35% Neither agree or disagree 21% Neither agree nor disagree 27% Neither agree nor disagree 20%
Tend to oppose 9% Slightly less likely 4% Tend to disagree 11% Tend to disagree 11% Tend to disagree 26%
Strongly oppose 17% Much less likely 10% Strongly disagree 16% Strongly disagree 17% Strongly disagree 26%
Don't know 3% Don't know 4%
Not applicable - would never visit such a venue/attend such an event anyway 23%

The World Economic Forum (April 2021)

  • The survey on the requirement of vaccine passports between March 26 – April 9 2021, showed that in Great Britain there was 72% support for their use at large public events (vs 63% average comparators) and 55% support for use in retail and offices (vs 50% average comparators). Respondents levels of comfort with allowing the government to access personal health and vaccination information was at 60% and at 37% for a private company. In the UK, 22% of respondents thought that certification should not be required for domestic travel, international travel or workplaces, compared to 20% in comparators.

Contact

Email: Covid19OutbreakManagement@gov.scot

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