Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme in Scotland: statistics - October 2023

Method and main sources

This report accompanies the Official Statistics in Development tables on the Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme in Scotland. This statistical release has been designated as Official Statistics in Development which has not been assessed by the UK Statistics Authority. Official Statistics in Development are official statistics that are newly developed or innovative, and are undergoing evaluation. While checks have been completed before publication, these data are not subject to the full range of processes and quality assurance that would be required for Accredited Official Statistics. However, the data are being released given high public interest. This is in line with guidance from the Office for Statistics Regulation on the production and use of Official Statistics in Development. Work to improve data quality and data streams is ongoing and will be reflected in any future publications. The report is based on a number of sources, compiled into one report and an accompanying set of tables containing data not already published elsewhere.

For more information on Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme sponsor routes please see Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme in Scotland: statistics - January 2023.

Please note that some data sources may be revised retrospectively. The data in this report are correct as at time of publication and any subsequent revisions will not be reflected here.

Numbers of visa applications, visas issued and arrivals and visa data by age and sex of applicant

The Department for Levelling up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) publish statistics on the numbers of visa applications, visas issued and arrivals to the UK where the sponsor location is Scotland on a weekly basis, and provide a local authority breakdown of sponsor location. The full data set and methodology can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/ukraine-sponsorship-scheme-visa-data-by-country-upper-and-lower-tier-local-authority. It is important to note that the number of arrivals into the UK is not necessarily reflective of the persons having arrived at the sponsors’ location. An individual, arriving on a visa sponsored by a Scottish Sponsor, may arrive elsewhere in the UK and decide to remain there. There is a known undercount in the Northern Ireland ‘arrivals into the UK’ data. The undercount is due to people arriving into the Republic of Ireland and entering Northern Ireland via the Common Travel Area, where travel is not covered by the methods used to record entry to other parts of the UK. Ways to understand the scale of this undercount are being explored.

Not everyone entering the UK through the Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme (including those sponsored by the Scottish Government) will need accommodation provided to them. Additionally, it is important to note that one volunteer can host more than one displaced person (for example they could host a whole family). Therefore, arrival figures cannot be compared directly to the number of displaced people from Ukraine entering accommodation.

Figures per 100,000 population are calculated for each nation separately. Raw figures are sourced from DLUHC publication (Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme: Visa data by country, upper and lower tier local authority - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)), population rates for each country are sourced from Estimates of the population for the UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk). The population figures underlying these graphs are based on the latest annual population estimates (mid-2021).

Please note that age and sex demographics are extracted from the visa application form, and will reflect the individual’s travel documentation. For visa applications and visa issued, age is not the age of the person at the date the application was made or the date the visa was issued. For data covering March 2022 to June 2023, age is reported as at 14th August 2023 for visa applications and visas issued. For arrivals data, age is reported as at the date of the individual’s first arrival to the UK. Sex is as recorded on the individual's travel documentation. Data is not included where the age of the applicant is not known.

Ukrainian nationals entering employment in the UK

The Department for Levelling up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) and HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) publish statistics on analysis of Ukrainian nationals entering employment in the UK. The full dataset and methodology can be found here: Analysis of Ukrainian nationals entering employment in the UK - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk). The releases are classed as ‘Management Information’, the methodologies used to produce the statistics are in development and the data are subject to revision as data can continue to be received after the payment period.

Payrolled employee counts were obtained using HMRC’s Pay As You Earn Real Time Information (PAYE RTI) data and HMRC’s Migrant Worker Scan (MWS). Nationality breakdowns are determined using HMRC’s MWS. Nationality is reported by individuals when they register for a National Insurance number (NINo) through the adult National Insurance number registration process. Only Ukrainian nationals who registered for a NINo between 4 March 2022 to 30 June 2023 are included in the analysis. If an individual has subsequently naturalised or changed nationality, it will not be reflected in these statistics. It is not possible to identify individuals who have been issued a NINo through one of the three new visa schemes: Ukraine Extension Scheme, Homes for Ukraine, or Ukraine Family Scheme. However, it is highly likely that Ukrainian nationals registering for a NINo between 4 March 2022 to 30 June 2023 have done so through one the schemes mentioned above. Individuals that registered for a NINo over this time period through a different route will still be included in the statistics. Some individuals with the right to work in the UK will pay tax using Temporary Reference Numbers rather than NINo. These are not identified in the MWS so have been classified as UK nationals. It is possible that this applies to some Ukrainian nationals who will not be included in these statistics.

Please note, employment counts include only those paid through PAYE and do not cover other sources of income such as from self-employment, pensions or investments. An individual is considered to be ‘in employment’ in a given month if they have a pay value greater than or equal to £0.01. An individual in employment is referred to as 'active'. Not all individuals were in employment in each month, hence, totals for monthly counts may differ from the total when looking across the full time period.

Geographic location of individuals is recorded based on where the individual lives, not where they work. Age is calculated as at 30 June 2023. Please note, counts have been rounded to the nearest 50.

Welcome accommodation

There is a range of welcome accommodation across Scotland including hotels, apartments, and aparthotels. Should a displaced person from Ukraine require welcome accommodation, it is in the majority of cases allocated via the core welcome hub in Edinburgh. When in welcome accommodation, matching discussions will take place to secure an offer of matched accommodation. Our contracted partner, who procures welcome accommodation on behalf of the Scottish Government, provides an overview of the number of welcome accommodation rooms occupied by displaced people from Ukraine. Welcome accommodation rooms could include hotels, apartments or aparthotels.

Please note that the data are provisional management information from live operational systems and are subject to change. These data are provided both by our accommodation procurement partner and by direct contact with the facilities used for welcome accommodation. There may be delays in reporting from welcome accommodations and facilities used for welcome accommodation that affect data quality, due to operational pressures. This may affect the figures reported and caution should be taken when comparing to previous weeks. Additionally, the reporting cut off day for welcome accommodation varied from Monday to Tuesday in some reporting weeks. This may affect the figures presented, as some facilities or partners do not provide weekend returns. Therefore, caution should be taken when interpreting the data.

While data is available on the total number of occupied rooms in welcome accommodation, accurate data on the number of people in each facility is not available. To estimate the number of people in welcome accommodation rooms, we have assumed an average of 1.9 people per room in welcome accommodation. This was based on partial data between August and September 2022 from the Edinburgh Welcome Hub on the number of displaced people entering welcome accommodation and the number of rooms they took up. The figure was calculated as an average of the number of people divided by the number of rooms they occupy. We are currently reviewing the methodology to estimate the number of people in welcome accommodation rooms.

Please note, welcome accommodation occupancy are dynamic data as some individuals leave, while others enter. As such any decrease or increase in occupancy over time does not indicate the total number of individuals that have left or entered welcome accommodation. Total number of occupied welcome accommodation rooms does not indicate the number of displaced people from Ukraine per each room. We are currently reviewing the methodology to estimate the number of people in welcome accommodation rooms.

Please note that in order to disclosure control the data, all figures have been rounded to the nearest 5.

Offers to host

The Scottish Government initiative, offer to host, which launched on 28 November 2022, allows people to volunteer a place to stay for displaced people from Ukraine and replaces the previous expressions of interest process initiated by UK government. Offer to host aims to improve both the user experience for hosts and the efficiency of the overall service by collecting all information required in a single step, and then passing it on to local authorities for hosts checks shortly after submission.

Please note, an individual is defined by a unique email address on application. Some individuals have submitted multiple offers to host; however, for the purposes of this summary, only the first submission is counted. This is due to issues with identifying duplicate offers from situations where there are legitimately multiple offers at the same address (such as on large farms with multiple homes available). As such the summary presents the number of hosts; the number of offered properties is likely to be higher.

Please note, that in order to disclosure control the data, all figures have been rounded to the nearest 5. Therefore totals may not sum due to rounding.

Children in education

The Scottish Government publish data on the numbers of Ukrainian Displaced Children enrolled in Scottish schools, collected through a survey of local authorities. Due to the start of the new school year there is likely to be movement of pupils from primary to secondary school, since the previous collection. Please note, the collection was paused due to summer holidays and resumed at a reduced frequency. More information on how these break down by primary and secondary school as well as local authorities can be found on the Scottish Government dashboard. Revisions can be made retrospectively on the dashboard if a local authority submits data after the initial deadline. These will not be reflected in this report.