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Social Focus on Women and Men 2002

chapter one: Population

With just over 5 million inhabitants at the beginning of the 21st century, Scotland is a small country in global population terms. While the total population slightly increased from 4.5 million to an estimated 5.1 million during the 20th century, the proportion of women has remained stable at around 52 per cent.

Throughout the 20th century, more boys were born every year than girls. However, due to higher mortality rates of men at all ages, women have outnumbered men in the population.

The combination of a fall in birth rates and an increase in life expectancy have resulted in an ageing population in Scotland, as in most developed countries. In Scotland, the number of women aged 70 and over, as a proportion of the population aged 70 and over is expected to fall from 62 per cent women in 2000 to 58 per cent women in 2016. The number of men aged 51 and over is projected to increase over the next 15 years at a faster rate than women in the same age group. The proportion of men aged 75 and over is expected to show the largest percentage increases.

This ageing population has significant implications for health and social services. The working age population, which provides much of the tax base to fund services, is falling.

Population Profile

The population in Scotland rose from 4.5 million at the beginning of the 20th century to a projected 5.1 million in 2002. Despite this overall rise, the population has slowly decreased since reaching its highest level in 1974. The proportion of males remained stable at around 48.5 per cent of the population since 1900, with the exception of a sharp drop during the Second World War - although this was a temporary decrease and by 1946 the proportion of men had returned to 48 per cent.

In 2002, it is estimated that 51.3 per cent of the Scottish population are women. The gap between the number of men and women is projected to decrease slowly in the future. By 2016 the Scottish population is projected to be 50.9 per cent female (Chart 1.1).

Chart 1.1: Projected population by gender, Scotland, 1998-2016
Millions and Percentages

The size of the Scottish population is projected to decrease slowly between 2000 and 2015 with the number of males increasing slowly. However, the size of the female population is projected to decrease at a slightly faster rate than the overall population.

Despite the combination of a decrease in the number of women and an increase in the number of men, women are still projected to outnumber men overall. This is mainly due to a longer life expectancy of women on average (Chart 1.2).

Chart 1.2: Life expectancy at birth, by gender and year of birth, Scotland, 1930-2000
Years

The life expectancy at birth for people born in 1930-1932 was 59.5 years for women and 56.0 years for men. Since then, life expectancy has risen to reach 78.2 years for women and 72.8 years for men.

After rising steadily from the early 1920's until the mid 1970s, the gap between men and women's life expectancy has fallen, following the same pattern as the gap between the number of men and women in the Scottish population. While women were expected to live 6.4 years longer than men in the 1970s, the difference was reduced to 5.3 years for people born between 1998 and 2000. In 1998, life expectancy in Great Britain was 2.1 years longer for men and 1.6 years longer for women than in Scotland.

Although many factors influence life expectancy, diet and lifestyle are important factors.

While the overall population is set to decrease slightly between 2000 and 2015, this is not reflected in all age groups of the population. The number of children and young people of 17 years old or lless is projected to fall below 1 million in 2013 to reach 985,970 people in 2016. This represents a 12.1 per cent decrease over the 2000-2015 period. Throughout the period, boys are estimated to outnumber girls (51.4 per cent of boys in 2015).

The bulk of the working age population (men and women aged between 26 and 50 years old) is also projected to decrease between 2000 and 2015 by 10.4 per cent. In 2015, the working age population is estimated to stand at 1.7 million people, 50.2 per cent of them being men.

In contrast, the number of people aged between 18 and 25 years old should remain stable between 2000 and 2015, increasing only by 0.7 percent to reach 521 thousand in 2015. However this relative stability hides a projected peak at almost 543 thousand in 2010. The balance of men and women should remain stable throughout the period with men slightly outnumbering women (51 percent being men).

The most significant change between 2000 and 2015 is expected to be undergone by people aged 51 years and older as their number is estimated to increase by 18.4 per cent. Men should witness a sharper rise in their number than women (23.5 per cent against 14.4 per cent respectively). Within this, the most significant rise is for men aged 90 years and older, with their number expected to increase by 87 per cent, reducing the proportion of women in this age group from 79 per cent in 2000 to 73 per cent in 2015 (Chart 1.3 and Chart 1.4). The increase in the numbers of men in the 51 and older age group can be partly explained by the increases in life expectancy at birth and decreases in mortality rates from cancer and heart disease in particular.

Chart 1.3: Projected population, by age group, Scotland, 2000-2015.
Percentages

Chart 1.4: Population aged 51 and above, by gender, Scotland, 2000-2015
Numbers and percentages

In 1991, 62,600 people (1.5 percent of Scotland's population) were from an ethnic minority group. Contrary to the overall population, the number of men from all ethnic minority groups (with the exception of 'other Asian') outnumbered women. However the balance between men and women was not the same for all ethnic minorities. While 45 per cent of the black population consisted of women, 53 per cent of the population from an Asian background other than Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Chinese, or Indian were women. Pakistanis and Bangladeshis are the largest ethnic minority population groups in Scotland; they showed a fairly even distribution between men and women (Table 1.5).

Table 1.5: Population by ethnic group and gender, Scotland, 1991
Thousands and percentages

Source: General Register Office for Scotland

Birth

The number of births in Scotland decreased steadily during the 1990s. There were 53 thousand live births in 2000, which represented 10.4 births per 1,000 women; these two figures were the lowest recorded since the introduction of civil registration in 1855. Fertility rates have also decreased significantly during the 1990s from 58.8 live births per thousand women of child-bearing age in 1990 to 49.0 in 2000. Fertility rates have almost halved since 1971 when there were 85.8 births per thousand women aged 15 to 44 years.

The ratio of male to female births has been fairly stable over the years and tended to fluctuate around 1,050 new born boys per 1,000 new born girls; in 2000 this ratio was of 1,051 baby boys per 1,000 baby girls.

Of the 53 thousand new born babies in 2000, 57.4 per cent of them were to married parents and 26.5 per cent to unmarried parents living at the same address. The number of children being born to married parents has declined from 72.9 per cent in 1990 to 57.4 per cent in 2000 while the proportion of births outside marriage increased from 27 per cent to 42.6 per cent over the same period. In 2000, 7.1 per cent of births were registered by the mother alone with no father's name recorded.

Data for all children registered at birth shows the age structure of parents at the time of their child's birth has undergone slight changes between 1990 and 2000. While most women giving birth were aged between 25 and 29 (37 per cent in 1990, 33 per cent in 2000), men tended to be older at the birth of their children: most fathers were aged between 25 and 28 in 1990, but by 2000 most fathers were between 30 and 34 years old.

The age of mothers at the time of birth is increasing. In 1990, 29 per cent of mothers were 30 years or older at the time of birth. In 2000 this figure had increased to 47 per cent. The proportion of mothers aged between 30 and 34 years old at the time of birth increased from 22 per cent in 1990 to 31 per cent in 2000 (Table 1.6).

Table 1.6: Live birth, by age of parents, Scotland, 1990-2000
Percentages

Source: General Register Office for Scotland

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