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Scottish Economic Statistics 2002

Preface

Scottish Economic Statistics

Scottish Economic Statistics seeks to improve the flow of statistical knowledge, and make such knowledge as accessible as possible. It is part of a wider effort within the Executive both to enhance the generation of statistical knowledge about key elements of the Scottish economy and to encourage its dissemination as widely as possible. The first article in this document - the Scottish Economic Statistics Programme - focuses on the programme of statistical development in the economic field and sets out the agenda of issues that the Scottish Executive will be pursuing throughout 2002 and beyond. In particular, it highlights the underlying need for evidence-based policy making and the contribution that reliable statistical knowledge can make in this regard, while noting the importance of prioritisation in this respect in a world of necessarily constrained resources. It is hoped that one outcome of this developmental work will be continuing improvements in the development of this and related publications.

This edition of the Scottish Economic Statistics has two parts to it:

• Part A. Articles. In addition to the Scottish Economic Statistics Programme, the section contains articles discussing new areas of development on:
• Environmental Accounts;
• Estimation of the Economic Impact of Tourism
• Income Inequality
• Part B. Tables and Commentary. This section is organised into six sections, each with a short introductory text, presenting:
• Economic Accounts: summary macro-economic indicators;
• Industrial Sector: detailed results about the structure of Scotland's corporate sector and the manufacturing and service sectors;
• The Household Sector: information about income and expenditure of Scottish households;
• The Labour Market: information on demographics, employment, earnings, unemployment and the New Deal programmes;
• Government sector: Government income and expenditure, health service expenditure;
• Sub-Scotland Economic Data: Neighbourhood statistics initiative, cities project, GDP, number and size of businesses, manufacturing, services, tourism, employment, earnings, VAT registrations, Council Tax, benefits, health board expenditure: economic indicators disaggregated to Local Authority level.

The Development of Economic Statistics in Scotland

In the course of 2001, there have been several important developments in enhancing Scottish economic statistics in Scotland:

• the recent development of economic statistics: the progress that has been made in this regard is set out in detail in the first article of Part A, but it is worth drawing attention to several particularly important steps:
• work has been continuing in preparation for the introduction of chain-linked GDP which will assist in reconciling quarterly Scottish GDP estimates with the ONS Regional Accounts. This is a long term project and the Scottish Executive is working with the Office for National Statistics to ensure that a consistent methodology for this work is adopted and that it will be introduced in line with the ONS timetable;
• there is continued development of statistics on Innovation and the Knowledge and New Economy;
• seasonally adjusted quarterly estimates of Scottish Manufacturing exports are now available;
• improved methodologies have been developed for specific sectors in the estimation of GDP for Scotland;
• residence-based unemployment rates are now available;
• it has been decided to double the Scottish sample in the Family Resource Survey;
• important links between the devolved Administrations have been made, with regular discussion between Scottish Executive, Welsh and Northern Irish Assemblies and Whitehall departments on the range of sub-UK economic statistics available.
• the importance of economic statistics: the Executive, many Parliamentarians and commentators have continued to stress the importance of robust economic statistics in monitoring economic progress and in underpinning economic policy decisions and development. They have been particularly important in a number of instances over the past year. For example:
• assessing the potential impact of the terrorist attacks in the US on the Scottish economy;
• analysing the impact of major openings and closures of companies;
• contributing to the understanding of income poverty in Scotland in the Social Justice Annual Report;
• looking at the range of impacts of the Foot and Mouth crisis.
• the dissemination of economic statistics: following from the work that has been undertaken over the past year, this edition now incorporates several new and noteworthy developments. In particular, it includes series on:
• the components of change in employment within the corporate sector
• fast growing new companies
• manufactured exports
• a profile of the Scottish Whisky Industry
• tourism activities
• construction sector statistics
• participation in New Deal
• GDP at current prices for local areas in Scotland
• the stock of VAT Registered Enterprises
• the geographic distribution of Scottish Tourism Expenditure
• employment status within local authorities
• claimants of Working Age of Key Benefits by local Authority
• Council Tax - distribution of property by band and local authority

As part of a rolling programme, and in recognition of the fact that Scottish Economic Statistics cannot be expanded indefinitely, a number of tables have been dropped from the current publication. These are the ones which were identified as being less well used and hence of lower priority. Users should note, however, that the information they contained is still available on request from the Scottish Executive or on the website.

• external input to the developmental work: there are two developments from the past year to report in this respect:
• SCOTSTAT: during 2001, the Executive established a new framework for user/provider consultation which is known collectively as SCOTSTAT. This has been the result of considerable discussion over the last two years to determine the best approach to providing input to the development of statistics within the Scottish Executive. The overarching SCOTSTAT Board consists of members of each of the individual SCOTSTAT committees that deal with such diverse subjects as the economy, natural environment and agriculture amongst others. As well as committee representatives, there are also Board members from Audit Scotland, the Royal Statistical Society and the voluntary sector. The Board met for the first time in January 2002. Its remit is to advise the Executive on the priorities for, and approach to, statistical development and to consider in particular the most sensible approach to dealing with cross-cutting issues. The Board will meet on a six monthly basis.
• The Scottish Economic Statistics Consultative Group (SESCG): the SESCG - which was established last year to advise us on the priorities for, and approach to, the development of economic statistics - has continued to meet as part of the new SCOTSTAT framework. The Group meets on a six monthly basis to advise on both the technical questions involved in enhancing our statistical knowledge and on where our efforts might be most appropriately directed. The group is currently focussing on the feasibility of producing Gross National Income estimates for Scotland, the range and quality of information about tourism in Scotland, the sources of information about Scotland's exports, environmental accounts, and the contribution of economic statistics to the Neighbourhood Statistics initiative to develop a better range of sub-Scotland information.
• the future development work: the programme of economic statistics developmental work for 2002 and beyond is set out in a comprehensive manner in the first article of Part A of this Report. There are a wide array of areas in which enhancements are being made, but the priorities that have been identified will be:
• Full cost benefit analysis of the case for boosting the Labour Force Survey for Scotland. This will improve the Scottish sample and provide more robust sub-Scotland estimates;
• Review of the existing Scottish export statistics;
• Feasibility study for the production of a GNI estimate for Scotland;
• Development of Tourism statistics.
  A working group will be established
  to consider developing the range of information available on tourism within the Scottish Executive;
• Driving forward the priority of sub-National economic statistics within the National Statistics agenda. Initial work is concentrating on developing a complete range of data for Scotland at ward level.

Acknowledgements

Finally, I would acknowledge the major contribution made to the preparation and compilation of this report by Jill Alexander, Maria Melling and Catriona Hayes in the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser. In addition to those named authors in Part A of this edition, I would also acknowledge the contribution of the statistical staff in the Enterprise, Transport and Lifelong Learning Department, the Environment and Rural Affairs Department, and the Development Department, together with the continuing contributions and advice from officials in other UK Government Departments, including, most notably, the Office for National Statistics, the Department for Education and Employment and the Department for Work and Pensions.

DR ANDREW W GOUDIE
Chief Economic Adviser

March 2002

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