SCOTTISH EXECUTIVE

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Scottish Economic Statistics 2000

Agriculture and Fishing

• The Scottish agricultural census is carried out every June covering all main holdings, and a sample (one third) of the smaller (minor) holdings on a 3 year cycle. Both main and minor censuses collect information on crops, livestock and labour as at 1 June. Results are released initially as provisional around September, and then as final figures around October, in press releases which have a standard annual form.
• In December each year, a sample survey of about 40 per cent of main farms is conducted to provide estimates of winter crops sown and breeding livestock maintained for the next breeding season. Final results are published in a press release around March.
• The Aggregate Annual Account is produced annually and in line with the internationally agreed 1993 System of National Accounts and is consistent with ESA95. These provide estimates of agricultural outputs, inputs and income. These are based on a number of surveys and censuses conducted by the Scottish Executive. The Scottish aggregate agricultural account statistics feed into Scottish Input-Output tables and also into national, Scottish and NUTS level GDP statistics.
• Farm Borrowing figures for Scotland are prepared based on information collected from the banks and mortgage companies operating in Scotland. These include advances to agriculture contractors and livestock salesmen, and are published annually in August each year.
• The Farm Accounts Survey is conducted annually, covering the main farm types found in Scotland, drawing on an identical sample of 550 farms to show recent trends. This provides information on the incomes, output and costs of farms by farm type, published in February.
• In addition a number of other Scottish surveys are carried out including surveys of cereal stocks, rents on tenanted land, and ad hoc surveys of specific sectors where the need for additional surveys arises (eg the pig survey conducted in March 1999).
• The Annual Report on Scottish Agriculture will continue to be the main vehicle for the publication of Agriculture statistics, drawing on all of the above sources and others.
• Under EU regulations, details of every fishing voyage must be submitted and recorded. Those landings made into Scotland (or abroad by Scottish based vessels) are recorded on Scottish Executive computers, while those made into other UK countries are held by MAFF. Amongst the information collected are the sea area fished, the weight of fish landed (by species), and its value. The main purpose of the statistics is to manage Total Allowable Catches and effort, and to inform policy, but the database is also used for other Executive purposes _ eg licensing, sightings, satellite monitoring etc. Statistics are published annually in summary form, although the data is analysed on a regular basis for sea fishing control purposes.

Housing

• Trends in new housebuilding by Unitary Authority and building agency are published in a quarterly Statistical Bulletin along with information about government expenditure on housing, average house prices, mortgages and average rents.

Transport

• An annual publication, Scottish Transport Statistics, provides detailed transport and travel information, including trends in modes of transport used, movement of freight and new car registrations. In addition, there are other more 'specialist' publications available.
• The Scottish Household Survey, which started in February 1999 and is conducted by contractors on behalf of the Scottish Executive, will provide amongst a range of other information statistics on several transport-related topics, such as: possession of driving licences, orange badges and concessionary fare passes; motor vehicles available to the household; availability of bus services; frequency of driving, cycling and walking; travel to work and travel to school; suitability of public transport and reasons for choice of transport modes; and the purposes, modes and times of journeys. These statistics can be analysed in the context of other information about the people concerned (eg their ages, incomes, current economic statuses, etc).

Local Government Finance

• The annual publication Scottish Local Government Financial Statistics will be published in Spring 2000. This will cover outturn data for 1997/98. The tables are produced from various financial returns made by local authorities and joint boards (for example police, fire) in Scotland to the Scottish Executive.

Cross-cutting Issues

• Social Inclusion. Links have been developed with Treasury, Inland Revenue and DSS to gain access to information required to consider social inclusion in Scotland. Key statistics on the distribution of household types, benefit claimants and the impact of new budget announcements on different household types will be produced. A Treasury model to estimate national and sub-national impacts of budget and other policy changes will be developed for Scotland and the use of information from a range of existing inquiries, including the Scottish Household Survey, will be investigated.
• Rural Development. Economic information at disaggregated geographic levels will be co-ordinated and analysed to produce a better understanding of the rural economy. An assessment of the gaps in the information required for work in this area will be conducted, and the results will inform the general review of requirements for Scottish economic statistics.

The development of new economic series in 2000

The Scottish Economy

• Gross National Product (GNP). GNP is usually considered to be a better measure of overall living standards than GDP as it includes net property income from abroad (mainly flows of profits, interests and dividends). Scottish Executive statisticians will produce a discussion paper on whether this indicator could be constructed for Scotland, the importance of its development and the relevant resource implications.
• Index of Production. The current review of the Index of Production methodology is being carried out with the University of Southampton with the aim of improving the quality of the Index by reducing bias and increasing stability. It is also expected that the new methodology will reduce the revisions to the Index and improve timeliness. This work should be completed during Summer 2000. Following completion of the methodology review, work will commence on investigating the practicalities of chain-linking the Index of Production in anticipation of the completion of ONS work on chain linking several input data series.⁶
• Scottish Manufactured Exports. This new series will settle into a regular publication routine approximately one month ahead of the current Index of Production publication date, enabling the exports data to be released around 3 months after the end of a quarter. From 2000 Q1 (published July 2000), there will be sufficient data points to allow seasonal adjustment. As part of the seasonal adjustment research, various additional smoothing techniques will be examined for certain series.
• Index of Construction. A study of the validity of the seasonal adjustment and smoothing techniques applied to the Index of Construction will begin at the end of 1999.
• Input-Output Tables. The requirements of ESA95 (discussed below) include several areas of development on input-output, including the investigation of constant price input-output tables and environmental accounts. The Scottish Executive will maintain a close liaison with ONS on input-output methodologies at the UK level in order that consideration might be given to developing these in Scotland.

Commerce, Energy and Industry

• Scottish Corporate Database. Ongoing development of quality control procedures will feed through to the Corporate sector analysis from 1999 data onwards. Additional modules will developed possibly including information on the level of e-commerce in Scottish business, in response to the needs of the Scottish Parliament and other users.
• Statistics on Innovation. Work will begin on drawing together and analysing the data which is currently available on the level and nature of innovation and research & development in Scotland. This work will focus primarily on the work being funded by or carried out in the private sector. Additional information on Government funded research and development in Scotland will also be analysed. This work will be carried out with a view to publishing any results.
• The Manufacturing Sector. Although the updated Manufacturing Trade Flow Survey is being conducted primarily as an input to the 1997 Input-Output Tables, it is expected that additional analysis of the data will be possible, including combining them with data from the ABI, leading to a separate publication of the findings. This work is planned to start in Spring 2000.
• The Construction data within the 1997 ABI extract for Scotland will be processed after the main Scottish Production Database. Some work needs to be done looking at some issues specific to this sector, such as problems allocating all units to a geographical area. This information is principally used as input to the input-output tables. However, if the quality of the data is sufficient it may be possible to produce more detailed analyses of this sector, either for publication or in response to specific requests.
• Investigations into the level and nature of commercialisation of university research in Scotland will begin in 2000. A pilot survey of such activity may be carried out with any results being published toward the end of the year. Should this pilot prove successful, this would become an annual survey.
• Energy sector data are also available from the ABI, although the information has tended not to be fully analysed and published. A fuller examination of this source is scheduled from April 2000.
• The Service Sector in Scotland. The scope for improvements in the coverage and timeliness of service sector data in Scotland will be considered now that the 1997 service sector dataset is finalised. The developments are likely to include: obtaining data at local unit level to facilitate sub-national analysis; in conjunction with ONS, improving the quality/checking of the employment figures; and obtaining Scottish turnover figures. The improved analysis of the 1998 data should permit a wider set of series to be published in the December 2000 edition of Scottish Economic Statistics. Investigative work into the possibility of producing data on the level of Scottish service sector exports will begin in 2000.

Labour Market

• Being derived from a sample survey, the Labour Force Survey estimates for Scotland are subject to the normal types of sampling error. An important development in 2000 will be the examination of how the results of the LFS and the Scottish Executive's Scottish Household Survey can be combined to provide more reliable and detailed labour market statistics for Scotland.
• More generally, as noted below, the Scottish Executive will continue to liaise with the ONS to ensure that the necessary data collected and analysed at the UK level are also available for Scotland. The likely developments include improved indicators for job creation/losses and vacancies.

Agriculture and Fishing

• Like other EC member states, there is a requirement to conduct a full structure survey of holdings in Scotland which will provide additional detail to that collected in the annual census for a number of items such as labour, including age breakdowns, and covering farm diversification. Sampling is permitted for certain items; however this is a major survey, and the first which will set the basis for ten year cycle of surveys which are held bi- or tri-ennially.
• An improvement to the Aggregate Agriculture Account is being considered which would involve a move away from using the constant price series, currently based on the 1995 figures, to a method where weights and hence price-basis are recalculated annually. This is likely to improve accuracy but require greater resources. The assessment of the possible new methodology will be carried out in consultation with other UK agriculture departments.
• The extent of pluriactivity (i.e. different activities) of farmers will be explored through analysing data on the off-farm incomes of farm households collected under the Farm Accounts Scheme.
• Consideration is to be given to the issues involved in collecting and generating more basic economic information on fishing, such as costs, profits etc.

Environment

• Consideration is to be given to the information required to produce environmental accounts and there will be a contribution to an assessment by input-output section on feasibility.

Housing

• There are plans to investigate the possibility of obtaining better information on mortgage arrears, repossessions and lending patterns through use of data from the Council of Mortgage lenders.

Transport

• There are plans to publish further transport-related results from the Scottish Household Survey - the first "SHS" Transport Statistics bulletin will be based on the results for 1999 as a whole, and is planned to be published in the second half of 2000. A second bulletin will appear later in the financial year, and use the larger accumulated sample to examine some more detailed aspects of the transport-related results. These bulletins will cover topics such as modes of transport used (including cycling and walking) by different types of people for different types of journey (eg travel to work, to school and to shops); personal mobility (including patterns of car ownership and use); access to and use of (eg) workplace parking and public transport etc. The topics and detail will be influenced by the views and needs of policy and other customers.
• Further extensions and improvements to the Scottish Transport Statistics "2000" edition are planned, in the light of requests that have been received, and needs that have been identified. For example, consideration will be given to obtaining tables from the International Passenger Survey showing the estimated numbers of Scots residents who go abroad, by the routes that they used

Local Government Finance

• The annual publication Scottish Local Government Financial Statistics will be reviewed with the aim of making the publication easier for users to understand.
• With Local Authorities, CoSLA and CIPFA the relevancy and consistency of information supplied by councils to the main expenditure returns will be reviewed with the aim of improving the design of the returns, the guidance provided and the data validation procedures used within the Scottish Executive and councils.
• Council Tax. A new publication, covering council tax figures and collection rates, will be considered in consultation with local authorities and other users.

Cross-cutting Issues

• Social Inclusion. A tax/benefit model based on an existing Treasury model will be developed to allow the impacts on Scottish households of budget and policy changes to be analysed. A range of additional data sources for the model will be investigated including the new Scottish Household Survey, the Family Resources Survey and the General Household Survey before any new survey work is considered. This will, in particular, provide a new analytic tool for the monitoring of effects on poverty and social inclusion.
• The Scottish Executive is currently investigating rural statistical needs with the aim of identifying any statistical gaps which need to be filled, in particular for the lower levels of geographical disaggregation, and the priority which should be attached to filling them. Consideration is being given to social and environmental indicators as well as economic statistics. This work is outlined in the article on Rural Scotland in this report.
• Sustainable Development. Consideration will be given to the extent to which existing environmental data can be combined with economic information to assist in the issue of sustainable development.

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