SCOTTISH EXECUTIVE

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Scottish Economic Statistics 2000

A1 The Scottish Economic Statistics Programme¹

Introduction

This paper sets out the planned schedule for the development of the Scottish Executive's Scottish Economic Statistics Programme (SESP) through to December 2000. It is a working document in that the outputs and timetable are subject to amendment; however, it represents the current plans as at February 2000.

The new SESP presented in this article should be viewed as the extension of the strategy for the future provision of official economic statistics published in the Scottish Economic Bulletin (SEB) in March 1998². (A previous SEB article described the range of sources of official statistics on the Scottish economy at that time³). This updated version has been extended to include relevant outputs and activities across the whole of the Scottish Executive, as well as in other government departments and, accordingly, represents a complete programme for the development of official economic statistics on Scotland which provides further insight into aspects of the Scottish economy. Areas included for the first time are regional assistance to industry, agriculture and fishing, local government finance, selected series within housing and transport and cross-cutting issues.

The SESP is separated into 5 sections:

• The background to the new SESP is outlined with reference to 2 significant developments: the impact of devolution; and the introduction of the concept of National Statistics.
• The continued publication of existing economic series in 2000 by the Scottish Executive and other government departments, including those released for the first time in 1998-99.
• The development of new economic series in 2000.
• Dissemination
• Liaison and consultation

Background

The impact of devolution

It was widely recognised that, in many areas, the quantity and quality, including timeliness, of the economic statistics that were fit to meet the needs of the Scottish Office would not be sufficient to meet the demands of Members of the Scottish Parliament and other commentators seeking to scrutinise the performance of the Scottish Executive. The enhancement of data was required to improve understanding of the economy and to lay firmer foundations for informed policy and strategic thinking. It was precisely in anticipation of this requirement that the initial version of the SESP was published last year. Since then, as discussed below, the strategy has been taken forward with some early results.

In many respects, the guiding principles underpinning the collection and publication of economic statistics have not been affected by devolution. It remains the case that a rational and systematic approach is needed, which identifies priorities, makes the best use of the resources available and seeks to minimise the compliance costs for households, businesses and others. It is important to emphasise that the gathering of statistics is not a cost-free exercise and that, because resources are limited, there are difficult choices to be made in the generation of potentially new data series and the enhancement of existing series in terms of the investment required for their collection, analysis and presentation.

The criteria for statistical development.

As described in the March 1998 SEB article, there is a continual review of the outputs of official economic statistics for Scotland, based on a number of criteria:

1. The value-added of statistical knowledge:

• Are the economic data relevant, especially - though not only - for Ministers and officials in the Scottish Executive?
• Are the consultation arrangements working effectively, enabling full account to be taken of the needs of users and the views of producers?
• Is there an overall coherence to the Executive's statistical responsibilities?
• How might the future requirements for economic data change?

2. The prioritisation of statistical development:

• Are the resources available for compiling economic data being allocated in the most appropriate way?
• Is there a risk that the available statistical resources are being spread too thinly?

3. The dissemination of statistical knowledge:

• Could the presentation of economic data be made more user-friendly?

This review of statistical outputs in Scotland incorporates the examination of the full range of UK economic indicators, in order that consideration might be given to producing the data series that are most appropriate to aiding informed analysis of the Scottish economy. However, there is neither the requirement nor the level of resource to reproduce this range in its entirety. The central issue concerns the identification of those data series that are most relevant and feasible for Scotland.

Comments and feedback on the range of official Scottish economic indicators have regularly been invited from academic and businesses users in Scotland. In addition, there are long-standing consultation arrangements with local authorities and CoSLA on relevant data collection and methodological issues. Liaison with data users and with other government departments is also being developed through the new external economic statistics consultation group and via the inter-departmental statistics liaison groups within the Government Statistical Service (GSS) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

National Statistics

A White Paper - Building Trust in Statistics - was released in October 1999. This covers all aspects of UK statistics and recognises that the production, analysis and dissemination of statistical information are of fundamental importance to open government and informed decision making. The White Paper addresses the issues of quality, integrity and accountability and makes the following proposals:

• National Statistics. The framework for National Statistics will include all outputs of the Government Statistical Service, but, over time, will also extend to cover other organisations' outputs, subject to the required levels of quality being reached⁴.
• Statistics Commission. An independent group will consider the framework of National Statistics, advise on integrity issues and help achieve the targets of transparency and accountability.
• Code of Practice. A revised version of the existing GSS Code of Practice for all producers of National Statistics will be produced, which sets out the requirements for integrity, relevance, quality and efficiency.
• Head of National Statistics. A new appointment, taking over the responsibilities of the current Director of the Office of National Statistics, will have particular responsibility for the integrity and validity of official statistics.

The Scottish Ministers will be responsible for Scottish outputs and activities in support of National Statistics. The Scottish Executive has endorsed the principles of National Statistics. In terms of economic statistics, as in other areas, this will ensure that consistent information is available within the UK. Consideration is currently being given as to how the White Paper's proposals will be implemented in Scotland, including how the framework will be developed, implemented and monitored, and what the respective roles of the Statistics Commission, UK and Scottish Ministers, and the Scottish and Westminster Parliaments will be. The White Paper states that the Commission will be required to recommend to Ministers specific arrangements to cover the interests of country/region dimensions within 6 months of its establishment.

The publication of existing Scottish economic series in 2000

This section is arranged into subject groupings within each of which, the main outputs, data sources and activities are described, along with timeliness, frequency and any other relevant information.

The Economy

• Gross Domestic Product. The new quarterly series for GDP are now published for each broad industrial sector and for more detailed industries within the service sector: agriculture, forestry, fishing; mining and quarrying; energy and water supply; manufacturing; construction; retail and wholesale; hotels and catering; transport, storage and communication; financial services; real estate and business services; public administration, education and health; and other services. The series are in index number form (1995=100), seasonally adjusted, with historic data from 1996 Q1. The data are currently published with a lag of 5 months from the end of the relevant quarter - next due in March 2000. The timetable will be brought forward by 1 month in 2000 to become the same as for the Index of Production.
• Index of Production. The quarterly series for output at the detailed 13 industry level for the manufacturing, energy and water supply and mining and quarrying sectors will be published quarterly on pre-announced dates from February 2000 when the 1999 Q3 data will be released. The series is also seasonally adjusted and based at 1995=100. Data are available on a consistent basis from 1986 Q1 onwards, although more aggregated information is available for earlier periods. There is a lag of just over 4 months between the end of a quarter and the first publication of data for that month.
• Scottish Manufacturing Exports. The quarterly series for the exports of the Scottish manufacturing sector at the detailed 10 industry level will be published quarterly on pre-announced dates from January 2000, when the 1999 Q3 figures will be released. The series will be in both current and constant prices. These data, which are not yet seasonally adjusted due to an insufficient number of data points, are published 3 months after the end of the quarter.
• Index of Construction. This is an output-based measure of growth in the Scottish construction sector, which is published as part of the quarterly estimates of Scottish GDP. Breakdowns of the level of output and orders in the various parts of the Scottish construction sector will continue to be produced and made available on request.
• Input-Output Tables. The Input-Output Tables and Multipliers for Scotland, 1997 publication, containing the 1997 balances, symmetric tables and multipliers will be published in September 2000. These tables will incorporate the new European System of Accounting (ESA95) adjustments for the first time, in line with UK plans, together with the results of a new trade flow survey of the Scottish manufacturing sector.
• Regional Accounts. The income measure of gross domestic product - GDP(I) - is compiled by the ONS. The 1997 results were presented for Scotland in March 1999, with results for local areas expected early in 2000. Details of household income and expenditure for 1997 were published in September 1999. All regional accounts are compliant with ESA95. Scottish Executive statisticians liaise closely with ONS in the development of the methodologies to construct and improve these regional indicators.

Commerce, Energy and Industry

• The Manufacturing Sector in Scotland. Detailed information about value-added, output, ownership, investment and employment in the Scottish manufacturing sector in 1998 is expected to become available during Autumn 2000. This information will be available at detailed industry group and sub-Scotland geographic levels and its availability will be initially announced through a National Statistics news release. Summary results will be published in the next Scottish Economic Statistics, although more detailed analysis will be available on request. The database for this exercise - the Scottish Production Database - is maintained by the Scottish Executive using ONS data from the Annual Business Inquiry (ABI)⁵. A subset of the UK data, covering companies with a Scottish component, is checked, post-stratified and re-grossed to produce estimates for Scotland.
• The Service Sector in Scotland. Detailed information about value-added, output, ownership, investment and employment in the Scottish service sectors in 1998 is expected to become available during Winter 2000. As with the manufacturing sector, the information will be available at detailed industry and its availability will be announced through a news release. Summary results will be published in Scottish Economic Statistics with more detailed analysis available on request.
• Corporate Sector. The Scottish Corporate Database, which is based on the Scottish extract of the ONS's Inter Departmental Business Register, is used to produce regular and ad hoc analyses of the structure of the Scottish corporate sector. These analyses are designed to enhance understanding of the size, sectoral distribution and geographic spread of Scottish enterprises. The Scottish Corporate Database is also used as a sampling frame for Scottish Executive research in particular areas of the Scottish economy. Summary results will be included in the next edition of Scottish Economic Statistics. Other data on the corporate sector in Scotland will continue to be published by other government departments: the annual series of VAT registrations and de-registrations, released by the DTI, is one example.
• Regional Assistance to Industry. Information about the number of applications and offers of Regional Selective Assistance (RSA) and other assistance schemes is published annually in the Industrial Development Act Annual Report. This information is available for indigenous and foreign owned companies, for detailed industry groupings and at sub-Scotland geographic levels. Summary results will be published in Scottish Economic Statistics with more detailed analysis available on request.

Labour Market

• Monthly labour market statistics. The presentation of the official labour market statistics was changed in April 1998, since when the information from the Labour Force Survey (including the ILO measure of unemployment) has been used as the primary measure of labour market performance. ILO unemployment rates in local areas are published annually (including figures for parliamentary constituencies and travel to work areas from June 1999). Seasonally adjusted monthly labour market information for Scotland was introduced in June 1999. The ONS will continue to publish labour market statistics for Scotland on a monthly basis with detailed statistics available on the National On-Line Manpower Information System (NOMIS). Information on the duration of unemployment is also available.
• Claimant count statistics are still produced and provide a valuable source of information about sub-Scotland, sex and age details of unemployed claimants in Scotland.
• New Earnings Survey. The 1999 survey includes specific elements to help monitor the introduction of the National Minimum Wage, including in Scotland.
• Annual Employment Survey. This survey is currently being replaced by the Annual Business Inquiry, which will collect all the important business performance measures in a coherent way. The Scottish Executive has funded a significant boost to the Scottish sample of the ABI in order to allow more detailed and reliable analysis of the Scottish economy.
• Labour Force Survey (LFS). Detailed data for the LFS in Scotland has recently been purchased by the Scottish Executive from the ONS. Work is currently being carried out by considering the results available from the new Scottish Household Survey and other possible sources along with the LFS data, in order to develop a more rounded and detailed picture of the Scottish labour market.
• Scottish Labour Market Intelligence Model. This extension to the Scottish Input-Output Programme is funded by the Scottish Higher Education Funding Council and Scottish Enterprise and undertaken in conjunction with the University of Strathclyde. The project was commissioned to produce a model that would provide estimates of changes in the requirements for labour in detailed occupational categories and for graduates with particular subjects and Higher Education level qualifications, using input-output data as the basis and supplementing this with additional data on occupations and qualifications. Following the final report for this project in July 1999, an extension was agreed in order to update the core model with the most recent data.

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