 |
 |
| Publications |
| Home | Press | Publications | What We Do | Who We Are | Search | Site Map | Contacts | Links | ||||
|
|
|||
| Publications > Economics & Finance | ||||
NEXT PUBLISHED: 6 February 2002 (Provisional)
A Scottish Executive National Statistics publication
This document is also available in pdf format (122k)
Gross Domestic Product in Scotland increased by 0.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2001 and by 0.3 per cent in the 4 quarters to 2001 Q2, according to provisional estimates released today by the Scottish Executive.
The main findings of the latest figures are:
1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the value of goods and services produced by residents, before allowing for depreciation or capital consumption. Net receipts from interest, profits and dividends abroad are excluded.
2. These quarterly Scottish output-based estimates of GDP are based on much improved sources. In particular, whereas previous (annual) estimates of service sector activity relied heavily on UK indices adjusted by Scotland's relative employment share, the series are now derived directly from survey returns from businesses with bases in Scotland. The improved data now permits the derivation of 7 disaggregated indices of activity within the service sector (Table 4).
3. The GDP estimate is calculated by producing a weighted average of over 350 separate indices (164 of which are in the production sector). The indices represent changes in the value added, at constant prices, in the production of goods and services in individual industries. These industries are compiled using the standard industrial classification SIC92. The weights used are proportional to the contribution of each industry or service to GDP in the base year (1995). Within production, weights are derived, for the most part, from the value added to output as measured by the Annual Census of Production in the base year. Where value added figures are not available, proxy indicators are used. Over time, the movement of these proxy indicators may relate less closely to changes in value added due to efficiency and price changes
4. Series are derived from indicators based on data from a wide range of sources. Examples include: deflated turnover, deflated production, the amount of a good or service sold or produced and, for some parts of the public sector, employee numbers.
5. The indices published are grouped according to the 1992 revised Standard Industrial Classification. The four broad groupings of industries are
(a) agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing
(b) production which comprises: mining and quarrying industries; energy and water supply; and manufacturing, which includes: refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel; chemical and man-made fibres; metal and metal products; engineering and allied industries; food, drink and tobacco industries; textiles, footwear, leather and clothing; other manufacturing.
(c) construction
(d) services, which includes: retail and wholesale; hotels and catering; transport, storage and communication; financial services; real estate and business services; public administration, education and health; other services.
6. The methodology employed to calculate the Scottish estimates of GDP growth is consistent with that used by other National Statistics publications in the calculation of Gross Value Added (GVA) for the UK and, as such, is ESA95 (European System of Accounts 1995) compliant. An article "Quarterly estimation of Gross Domestic Product" appeared in Scottish Economic Statistics, published by the Scottish Executive in February 2000.
7. Scottish GDP estimates will generally be less reliable than the estimates for the UK, primarily because the equivalent UK figures are produced by balancing 3 independent sets of estimates (Output (GVA), Income & Expenditure-based approaches). Furthermore, the survey data tend to be based on smaller numbers of units, making figures for Scotland more likely to be subject to small random fluctuations.
8. The figures incorporate revisions due to new and revised data, and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors. The data suppliers have verified these changes. Additionally this quarter, the introduction of an improved methodology for the Real Estate series and some reclassification to consumers' expenditure data used in the production of a number of series causes some historic revisions. These are one off revisions. Tables 7 to 11 show details of all revisions.
Table 1: Gross Domestic Product by category of output
Table 2: Gross Value Added at basic prices by category
of output
Table 3: Gross Value Added at basic prices: service
industries
Table 4: Index of Production for Scotland - High Level
Aggregation
Table 5: Index of Production for Scotland - Intermediate
Level Aggregation
Table 6: Index of Production for Scotland - Low Level
Aggregation
Table 7: Revisions to data published on 1 August 2001
Table 8: Revisions to data published on 1 August
2001
Table 9: Index of Production - Revisions to Data Published
1 August 2001 - High Level Aggregation
Table 10: Index of Production - Revisions to Data
Published 1 August 2001 - Intermediate Level Aggregation
Table 11: Index of Production - Revisions to Data
Published 1 August 2001 - Low Level Aggregation
Mercury/Profile users may obtain a copy of the tables by calling the number below.
Issued by
Economics Advice and Statistics Division
Scottish Executive Enterprise and Lifelong Learning Department
Meridian Court, Cadogan Street,
Glasgow, G2 6AT
Telephone
Press Office: Melissa Maynard
0141-242-5444
Statistician: Hugh McAloon
0141-242-5497
The information contained on this WWW site is Crown Copyright but may be reproduced without formal permission or charge for personal or in-house use. Privacy and Content Disclaimer.
For general enquiries about this web site email ceu@scotland.gov.uk or fill out our online questionnaire.
