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SCOTTISH TRANSPORT STATISTICS No 23: 2004 Edition

SUMMARY TRANSPORT STATISTICS
Including Historical Series

1. Introduction

1.1 This chapter provides:

• Section 2 - some main points from the statistics on transport in Scotland;
• Section 3 - some comparisons with the figures for Great Britain (or, in a few cases, the UK as a whole); and
• Section 4 - some notes, sources and further information.

The charts show some of the main trends in transport in Scotland since 1975, and in comparison with GB over the past ten years. The tables at the end of the chapter provide:

• a summary of the trends for each mode of transport in Scotland over the past ten years -Tables S1 and S2;
• a summary of cross-border transport for some different modes over the past ten years — Table S3;
• a comparison of some key figures for Scotland and Great Britain (or, in a few cases, the UK as a whole) - Tables SGB1 to SGB3; and
• a summary of the longer-term trends in passenger and freight transport, traffic estimates and some other vehicle-related statistics, going back to 1960 in some cases - Tables H1 to H4.

1.2 The purpose of this chapter is to provide some key figures. These are mainly on the topics covered by the first ten chapters, and generally appear in the same order as those chapters. They do not cover all the main points from the publication: some topics are not referred to in this chapter, which (by its nature) can only present some of the main statistics.

1.3 The main change to this chapter is the inclusion of a new table, Table S3, on cross-border transport.

2. Transport in Scotland (Tables S1 and S2)

2.1 Motor vehicles licensed (see also chapter 1 and Table H4): The number of motor vehicles licensed in Scotland in 2003 was nearly 2.4 million, 2% more than the previous year, and 27% higher than the number in 1993. Over the longer-term, the number of vehicles licensed has increased from an estimated 0.8 million in 1962 to almost 2.4 million in 2003. Figure 1 shows the trends since 1975: there have been increases in almost every year.

2.2 New registrations of motor vehicles (see also chapter 1 and Table H4): There were 262,400 new vehicle registrations in 2003, the highest number ever recorded, and more than three times the number (86,000) in 1962. Figure 2 shows that the number of new registrations of vehicles has risen and fallen a number of times during the period since 1975.

Figure 1 Vehicles licensed

Figure 2 New Registrarions of vehicles

2.3 Passenger journeys on local bus services (see also chapter 2 and Table H1): In 2002-03 there were 445 million passenger journeys on local bus services, 1% more than in the previous year, but 16% less than in 1992-93. The increase in passenger numbers in 2002-03 was only the sixth since the current records began in 1975, and the first time since then that there have been increases in four consecutive years. However, over the longer-term, there have been large falls. There were almost 1,700 million passenger journeys on local bus services in 1960. The number had almost halved by 1975. Since then, it has halved again, from 891 million in 1975 to 445 million in 2002-03. There were falls in every year since 1960 apart from 1985, 1987, 1988, 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002. Figure 3 shows the trends since 1975; it and Figure 4 show that local bus passenger numbers are significantly higher than those for other modes of public transport.

Figure 3 Passenger numbers: local bus and rail

Figure 4 Passenger numbers: rail, air and ferry (selected services)

2.4 Freight lifted by road (see also chapter 3 and Table H2): Freight lifted by road in 2003 was 153 million tonnes, a fall of 1 million tonnes (1%) over the previous year, and lower than the amount lifted 10 years earlier (about 159 million tonnes). In the eleven years from 1993 to 2003 (inclusive), the volume of road freight has usually been close to the average for the period of 156 million tonnes per year: 1996 and 2001 were exceptions. Over the longer-term, the amount of freight carried by road fluctuated between 1975 and 1987 (see Figure 5), rising to 172 million tonnes per year in 1976 and falling to 128 million tonnes per year in 1986. Since 1988, it has been more stable, varying between 149 million tonnes (in 1991) and 162 million tonnes (in 1996). The total of 153 million tonnes in 2003 was the third lowest in the period since 1988. Figures 5 and 6 show that, in terms of tonnes lifted, much more freight is carried by road than by any other mode of transport. However, a different picture is seen when account is taken of the distance that freight is carried. Table H2(b) shows that, in terms of tonne-kilometres, coastwise shipping accounts for the largest amount of freight moved, with road coming a close second in 2002 (the latest year for which figures are available for all the modes). Rail and pipeline still move smaller amounts of freight than road. However, they represent a higher proportion of the total for road freight when they are measured in tonne-kilometres, because of the greater distance (on average) for which freight is carried by rail and by pipeline.

Figure 5 Freight lifted: road and coastwise shipping

Figure 6 Freight lifted: coastwise shipping, pipelines, inland waterway, rail

2.5 Toll bridges (see also chapter 4 and Table H4): In 2003, around 24.0 million vehicles were estimated to have crossed the Forth Road Bridge (about 65,800 per day), more than in any previous year. The Tay Bridge had an estimated 8.7 million vehicles crossing, the Erskine Bridge had 9.7 million, and the Skye Bridge had about 0.76 million, all record numbers. The total number of vehicle crossings on all these toll bridges in 2003 was about 43.1 million, over 3.8 times the 11.3 million in 1971.

2.6 Road network (see also chapter 5): There were about 54,500 kilometres of public road in Scotland in 2003. The trunk road network accounted for 6% of the total.

2.7 Road traffic (see also chapter 6 and Tables H1 and H3): The methods that have been used to estimate the volume of traffic on roads in Scotland have changed over the years. DfT estimates that the total volume of traffic on Scotland's roads in 2003 was about 42.0 billion (thousand million) vehicle kilometres, 1% more than in the previous year, and 18% more than the figure for 1993 (the first year for which DfT has estimated the total volume of traffic on all roads in Scotland). The estimates show increases in every year since 1993 apart from 2000, which was affected by the fuel protests. The estimates for major roads (Motorways and A roads) also show rises in every year since 1993 (apart from 2000). Figure 7 shows the longer-term trends. It is estimated that the volume of car traffic on major roads (Motorways and A roads) has more than doubled, from an estimated 9,300 million vehicle kilometres in 1975 to over 21,900 million vehicle kilometres in 2003. Figure 7 shows that the main rise was between 1983 and 1995.

Figure 7 Traffic (vehicle kilometres)

2.8 Road accident casualties (see also chapter 7 and Table H4): Over the past ten years, the number of casualties injured in road accidents has fallen by 17% to 18,669 in 2003. The number of people killed as a result of road accidents in 2003 (331) was 9% more than in 2002, but was the fourth lowest figure since current records began more than 50 years ago. Over the longer-term, the number of casualties injured in road accidents fell from 26,703 in 1962 to 18,669 in 2003. Figure 8 shows that there have been falls in most years since 1979. Although in some years the drop appeared to be levelling off, over the longer-term the number of casualties injured in road accidents has fallen steadily.

Figure 8 Road accident casualties

2.9 Rail passenger journeys (see also chapter 8 and Table H1): The total number of rail passenger journeys originating in Scotland was 62.2 million in 2002-03, 3.1 million (5%) less than in the previous year, but 3% more than 10 years earlier. Over the longer-term, the number of rail passenger journeys fell from a peak of 73 million in 1964 to a low of 50 million in 1982. Figure 4 shows that, from then until 1996-97, passenger numbers remained between 50 million and 60 million per year. Rail passenger numbers had been rising since 1994-95 and reached almost 68 million in 2000-01, but then fell to just over 62 million in 2002-03. The equivalent figure for 2003-04 was not available at the time of going to press. However, given the increase in ScotRail passenger numbers in 2003-04 (see paragraph 2.4 of chapter 8), it is likely that the total number of passenger journeys in Scotland (when it becomes available) will be around 67-68 million.

2.10 Rail freight traffic (see also chapter 8 and Table H2): The volume of rail freight traffic fell from 29.8 million tonnes in 1960 to 5.0 million tonnes in 1993. Figure 6 shows that since then it steadily increased to 9.5 million tonnes in 2001, then fell slightly to 8.9 million tonnes in 2002. (Table H2)

2.11 Air passengers (see also chapter 9 and Table H1): There were about 21.1 million air terminal passengers at airports in Scotland in 2003, 7% more than in the previous year, and 90% more than in 1993. Figure 4 shows the rise in passenger numbers since 1975. Over the longer-term, the volume of air passenger traffic increased from 1.2 million terminal passengers in 1960 to 21.l million in 2003, the highest level ever recorded. There have been increases in every year since 1960 apart from 1968, 1974, 1982, 1985 and 1991.

2.12 Ferry services (see also chapter 10): In 2003, over 5.7 million passengers were carried on those shipping services within Scotland for which figures are available back to 1973 (i.e. Caledonian MacBrayne, P&O Scottish Ferries / NorthLink Orkney and Shetland, and Orkney Ferries). This was 7% more than in the previous year. Figure 4 shows the long-term trends, which were affected by the reduction in traffic that followed the opening of the Skye Bridge in 1995

2.13 Waterborne freight (see also chapter 10 and Table H2): Coastwise traffic rose from 24 million tonnes in 1987 to 40 million tonnes in 1998. Since then, the total has fallen to 19 million tonnes in 2002. However, the figures from 2000 are on a different basis from those for earlier years (see Chapter 10). The annual total amount of freight lifted for inland waterways has remained between about 9 and 12 million tonnes since 1982. Figure 6 shows the trends since 1980 (inland waterway) and 1987 (coastwise traffic).

2.14 Pipelines (see also Table H2): The amount of oil carried in pipelines rose rapidly to 23 million tonnes in 1977, and has fluctuated since then between 21 million tonnes and 30 million tonnes per year. Figure 6 shows the trends since 1975.

3. Cross-border transport (Table S3)

3.1 Table S3 is a new table, which summaries the information about cross-border transport which is available from national statistical systems. Their coverage is incomplete — for example, they have no figures for the number of cross-border journeys made by car, bus or coach (estimates of these are produced by the Transport Model for Scotland — see Chapter 12).

3.2 Passengers to / from other parts of UK: In 2002, there were 18.7 million rail, air or ferry passenger journeys between Scotland and other parts of the UK (a return trip counts as two passenger journeys). Compared with 1993, when there were only 12.4 million such passenger journeys, this was an increase of 51%. Over that period, the number of passenger journeys by air has more than doubled, compared with relatively little change in rail and ferry numbers.

3.3 Passenger journeys to / from other countries: In 2003, there were 7.34 million passenger journeys to or from Scotland to other countries, almost all by air. This was an increase of 9% compared with 2002, when there were 6.74 million passenger journeys. The number of passenger journeys has more than doubled from 1993 when the figure was 3.56 million.

3.4 Freight to / from other parts of UK: In 2002, 36.9 million tonnes of freight was lifted by either road, rail or water and delivered to other parts of the UK. This was a decrease of 7% over 2001 when 39.8 millions of tonnes of freight were lifted. Freight delivered to Scotland from other parts of the UK in 2002 was 24.4 million tonnes. This was a decrease of 4% over 2001 when 25.5 million tonnes were delivered.

3.5 Freight to / from other countries: In 2002, there was 68.9 million tonnes of freight were delivered outside the UK, almost all of which was carried by water. This was an increase of 1% over 2001 when 68.1 millions of tonnes of freight were lifted. Freight delivered to Scotland from outside the UK in 2002 was 12.3 million tonnes, again almost all by water transport. This was a decrease of 33% over 2001 when 18.3 million tonnes were delivered.

4. Comparison with Great Britain or the UK (Tables SGB1 to SGB3)

4.1 Motor vehicles: In 2003, there were 47 vehicles per 100 population in Scotland compared with 54 in Great Britain. Figure 9 shows that the number of vehicles per head of population has been consistently lower in Scotland than in Great Britain. In 2002 (the latest year for which comparable figures are available), it is estimated that around 66% of households in Scotland had the regular use of a car compared to 74% in Great Britain as a whole. The year-to-year fluctuations in the estimates for Scotland may reflect sampling variability.

4.2 Road network: Relative to the size of the population, the length of the road network is greater in Scotland than in Great Britain: in 2003, there were 10.8 kilometres of road per 1,000 population in Scotland compared with only 6.8 kilometres per 1,000 population in Great Britain.

4.3 Traffic: Per head of population, there is less traffic on Motorways, more traffic on A roads, and less traffic on all roads taken together (including B, C and unclassified roads) in Scotland than in Great Britain.

4.4 Fatal or seriously injured road accident casualties: Over the past ten years, the number of people who were killed or seriously injured in road accidents fell more rapidly in Scotland than in Great Britain: compared with 1993, the number in 2003 was 33% lower in Scotland and 24% lower in Great Britain. However, the number of people killed or seriously injured per head of population in 2003 was the same in both Scotland and Great Britain (0.65 per thousand).

4.5 Passenger journeys on local bus services: Since 1993-94, the fall in the number of passenger journeys on local bus services has been 15% in Scotland. This compares with an increase of 2% for Great Britain over the same period. However, Figure 10 shows that the usage of local bus services is higher in Scotland than in Great Britain: in 2002-03, 88 journeys were made per head of population in Scotland compared with 77 in Great Britain.

4.6 Rail passenger journeys: Figure 11 shows that, per head of population, there are fewer rail passenger journeys originating in Scotland than in Great Britain: 12.3 per head in Scotland in 2002-03, compared with 17.0 per head in Great Britain.

4.7 Air passengers: Between 1993 and 2003, the number of air terminal passengers increased by 90% for Scotland and 78% for the UK as a whole. Over the past ten years, the number of passengers per head of population has been higher for Scotland than for the UK.

4.8 Freight: The amount of freight per head of population which is lifted by road is slightly higher in Scotland than in Great Britain, and the amounts per head lifted by coastwise shipping and pipelines are significantly greater in Scotland.

4.9 Travel to work: The percentage of people travelling to work who do so by car has tended to be slightly lower in Scotland than in Great Britain as a whole, and the percentage using public transport has tended to be slightly higher in Scotland than in Great Britain. In Autumn 2003, 70% of people travelling to work in Scotland did so by car (compared with 71% for Great Britain) and 15% used public transport (compared with 14% for Great Britain).

5. Notes, Sources and Further Information

5.1 In general, notes on and definitions of these statistics, and details of the sources and where further information may be found, appear at the start of the relevant chapters. This section, therefore, only covers matters which are not dealt with there.

5.2 Vehicles Licensed: See Chapter 1. The figures for 1962 to 1974 represented the numbers of licences current at any time during the third quarter. They were derived from an annual "census" which used the records held by local licensing authorities. The method underlying the census then changed as vehicle records were gradually transferred from local taxation offices to the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Centre. Consequently, the figures for 1974 to 1978 are not comparable. No census results were available for 1977. Censuses based entirely on the record of licensed vehicles at the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA) began on 31 December 1978 and subsequent counts were taken on the last day of each year up to and including 31 December 1992. Thereafter, the source of this information changed to the Vehicle Information Database (VID) held by what is now the Department for Transport (DfT). The results conform to the same definitions as earlier vehicle censuses, but, for technical reasons, are considered slightly more reliable than earlier estimates. Some vehicles have complicated licensing histories that may include incidents such as cheques failing to clear, changes of taxation status, late payments, and one or more valid or invalid refund claims. The VID undertakes a more detailed examination of licensing history than earlier vehicle census analyses and is therefore able to provide better estimates of licensed stock. The net effect of the change to the VID as the main source of statistics on currently licensed stock was to produce a small reduction in the estimated levels of licensed stock. The difference between the two sources can be broadly estimated from statistics for 1992 which are available from both the old and new sources. The VID figures for all vehicles licensed at the end of 1992 are 2.4% lower for Scotland, and 3.1% lower for England and Wales, than the DVLA figures for the same date. For example, the VID figure for Scotland for 31 December 1992 is 1,840,000 compared with the DVLA figure of 1,884,000. To estimate the growth in the number of licensed vehicles over the longer term, these changes should be used to adjust the apparent vehicle growths calculated from figures which are on different bases pre- and post-1992.

5.3 Bus Passengers: Chapter 2 describes the method used to collect these statistics with effect from the 1985-86 financial year. A different method was used for 1984 and earlier years: the figures for 1975 to 1984 relate to calendar years and, prior to 1986, the term "stage services" was used (rather than "local services"). The figures for 1960 to 1974 are on a different basis: they were produced by adding together the total numbers of passenger journeys reported by the Scottish Bus Group (for calendar years) and the four city corporations (for financial years). They therefore include any non-local services run by these operators, and exclude any local (or "stage") services that were run by other operators. In addition, it appears that the figures reported by the Glasgow city corporation may have included passenger journeys on trolley buses and on the Glasgow Underground.

5.4 Road Freight: Chapter 3 describes these statistics. There is a small discontinuity between the figures for 1986 and 1987: the former excludes freight whose destination is Northern Ireland, and the latter includes such freight. As Table 3.1 shows, the amount involved is a very small percentage of the total.

5.5 Toll Bridges: See Chapter 4. The Erskine Bridge opened on 2nd July 1971, so the figure for that year does not include a full year's contribution from that bridge. The figure for 1979 is also incomplete, because no vehicle crossings were recorded for the Erskine Bridge for about two months due to industrial action by the toll collectors.

5.6 Car Traffic on major roads: Chapter 6 describes the methods used to estimate the volume of car traffic on major roads in Scotland for 1983 and subsequent years. As those methods cannot be used to estimate car traffic in Scotland for earlier years, the Scottish Executive had to make ad-hoc estimates for the years from 1975 to 1982. These ad-hoc estimates were calculated using the rate of change in the volume of traffic for Great Britain as a whole, adjusted to take account of changes in the number of vehicles licensed in Scotland relative to the number for Great Britain as a whole. The estimates for 1975 to 1982 therefore indicate the likely level of car traffic on major roads in Scotland in those years, and may well be considerably less accurate than the estimates for later years.

5.7 Rail Passengers: See Chapter 8. The statistics relate to financial years with effect from 1985-86. The figure for 1984 is derived from a total for the fifteen-month period 1 January 1984 to 31 March 1985, by scaling this down to an estimate for a twelve-month period. The figures for 1983 and earlier years are for calendar years. The figures for 1990-91 and earlier years were provided by British Rail after the end of each year; those for 1991-92 to 1999-2000 were provided by the Association of Train Operating Companies in Spring 2001.

5.8 Rail Freight: See Chapter 8. The statistics relate to financial years with effect from 1985-86. The figure for 1984 is derived from a total for the fifteen-month period from 1 January 1984 to 31 March 1985, by scaling this down to an estimate for a twelve-month period. The figures for 1983 and earlier years are for calendar years.

5.9 Coastal shipping: The figures for Scotland cover freight on coastwise voyages for which either the origin or the destination (or both) is in Scotland - i.e. all coastwise freight lifted in Scotland plus the coastwise freight lifted elsewhere in the UK which is discharged in Scotland. This definition of coastal shipping excludes foreign, "one port" and inland waterway freight shipping. For historical reasons, the definition used for the "coastal shipping" series differs from the definitions which are used for the water transport statistics in chapter 10. There is a small discontinuity between 1981 and 1982, due to a change in definitions. The figures were provided by Mr John Ryan, Department for Transport (tel: 0207 944 4443) who can provide further information about them.

5.10 Coastwise Shipping: See Chapter 10. These figures are lower than the figures for coastal shipping, because the latter includes freight lifted elsewhere in the UK which is discharged in Scotland.

5.11 Pipelines: Apart from the figures for GB for 1993 and earlier years, the estimates are of the total carried by on-shore pipelines which are at least 50 km in length and which carry crude oil or products. ("Length 50+ km" is the definition which is used for international comparisons.) The figures for Scotland are the totals for pipelines which start in Scotland. The estimates are produced by the Department of Trade and Industry, based upon information which it obtains from pipeline operators. In cases where DTI cannot obtain any figures for the most recent year(s), it assumes (for the purpose of producing these estimates) that each of the pipelines concerned continued to carry the same amount as in the latest year for which a figure for it was provided to DTI. The estimates were supplied by Mr Ian Corrie, DTI (tel: 0207 215 2714), who can provide further information about them.

5.12 Figures for Great Britain (or the UK): Occasionally, the figures given for Great Britain (or for the UK as a whole) are on a different basis from the figures for Scotland. This is generally because the figures for Scotland that have been published for many years in "Scottish Transport Statistics" are, for historical reasons, on a different basis from that used for the most readily available (or most often quoted) figures for Great Britain (or the UK), and we do not wish to publish here GB/UK figures which are on a different basis from those normally used, as that could cause confusion. Such differences in the bases of the figures for Scotland and GB/UK should not prevent their use in a broad comparison of the trends.

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