1. Introduction
1.1 This chapter provides information which was collected from individual people in surveys like the National Travel Survey (NTS) and the Scottish Household Survey (SHS). Such surveys provide "person-based" "cross-modal" information, in contrast to most of the earlier chapters, each of which is based on a particular mode of transport.
1.2 There have been several changes to this chapter.
Table 12.8 - Frequency of walking in the previous seven days
Table 12.9 - Frequency of cycling in the previous seven days
Table 12.10 - Usual main method of travel to school
Table 12.7 - Frequency of driving: people aged 17+
Table 12.11 - Scottish residents' visits abroad, by means of leaving the UK and purpose of visit
Table 12.12 - Scottish residents' visits abroad, by means of leaving the UK and area visited
The numbers of some of the other tables have changed in consequence.
1.3 The first six tables provide some statistics from the National Travel Survey. Because its Scottish sample is small (see section 4.1), results can only be given for two or three years taken together. This is why the latest NTS figures that are given here relate to 1995/97: they were produced by combining the samples for those three years.
2. Main Points
2.1 The average number of journeys per person per year was 1,028 in 1995/97, equivalent to an average of 2.8 journeys per person per day. The average increased by 6% between 1985/86 and 1995/97. Since 1985/86, the number of journeys by car has risen by 56%, but there have been a falls of 28% in the numbers of journeys for which "walking" or "local bus" is the main mode. (Table 12.1)
2.2 Cars, vans and lorries accounted for over three-quarters (77%) of the average of around 6,700 miles which was travelled per year per person over the period 1995 to 1997. Almost half the distance (48%: over 3,200 miles) was covered as the driver, and a further 29% (about 2,000 miles) as a passenger. No other mode of transport accounted for more than 10%: "local bus" had the next highest share, with 6% of the total distance travelled (roughly 400 miles). Surface rail accounted for just 4% (about 260 miles), walking for only 3% (around 180 miles) and cycling for only 0.4% (about 24 miles). (Table 12.2)
2.3 The average distance travelled per person per year has increased by more than two fifths (44%) between 1985/86 (under 4,700 miles) and 1995/97 (over 6,700 miles). Almost all the increase was accounted for by travel in a car as a driver (up from around 1,900 miles to over 3,200 miles) or as a passenger (up from about 1,300 miles to almost 2,000 miles). As a result, these modes’ shares increased from 41% to 48% (driver) and from 28% to 29% (passenger). (Table 12.2)
2.4 Over the ten years, the average length of a car journey has remained around 8-9 miles, compared to around 4-5 miles for local bus journeys and around 30 miles for train journeys. (Table 12.3)
2.5 On average, over 1,000 journeys were made per person per year. In 1995/97, shopping (22%) was the most frequent purpose of a journey, and three other purposes had large shares of the total: "commuting", "visiting friends at home" and "other personal business" each accounted for 13-18% of journeys. (Table 12.4)
2.6 In 1995/97, of the journey purposes, "commuting" had the largest share of the total distance travelled (19%: nearly 1,300 miles), followed by "visiting friends at home" (17%: about 1,150 miles). "Shopping", "holiday/day trip" and "other personal business" each accounted for around 12-14% of the distance travelled (in each case, between 800 and 950 miles), and "business" travel accounted for 10% (over 650 miles). (Table 12.5)
2.7 Between 1985 and 1995/97, there were increases in the average length of journeys for most purposes. For example, the average length of commuting journeys rose from 5.4 miles to 7.8 miles, and the average length of shopping journeys increased from 2.9 miles to 4.1 miles. (Table 12.6)
2.8 The Scottish Household Survey (SHS) provides information about how often people aged 17 or over drive. In 1999, 56% of men, 34% of women and 44% of all people aged 17 or over were said to drive "every day". A further 12% were said to drive at least once a week (but not every day), 4% drove less frequently, 4% had a full driving licence but were described as never driving, and 36% did not have a full driving licence. (Table 12.7)
2.9 The frequency of driving varied with age. In 1999, about three-fifths of people aged 31 to 50 were said to drive every day, compared with under two-fifths of those aged 17-30, under a half of 51-60 year olds, and under a quarter of the over-60s. 6% of people aged over 60 held a full driving licence but were said never to drive. The frequency of driving also varied with the annual net income of the household of which the person was a member. Almost three-fifths of adults living in households with an annual net income of £20,000 or more were said to drive every day, compared with only a quarter of those living in households with an annual net income of up to £10,000. (Table 12.7)
2.10 The SHS asks adults (people aged 16 or over) on how many days, in the last seven days, they made a trip of more than a quarter of a mile by foot in order to go somewhere (e.g. to work, to the shops or to visit friends) - i.e. on how many days did they use walking as a means of transport (as distinct from walking solely for pleasure). In 1999, only 52% of adults said that they had made a journey of more than a quarter of a mile by foot to go somewhere in the last seven days. There was little difference between the sexes. Young adults (aged 16-30) were the most likely to have walked to go somewhere, with 64% reporting this compared with only 43% of the over-60s. The percentage of adults who walked to go somewhere did not vary greatly with household income. (Table 12.8)
2.11 The SHS also asks adults how often, in the last seven days, they made a trip of more than a quarter of a mile by foot just for pleasure or to keep fit (jogging and walking a dog were counted under these purposes). In 1999, 40% of adults said that they had done so at least once. Men were slightly more likely to than women to report that they had walked for pleasure or to keep fit (men: 44%; women: 37%). There was some variation with age: the percentage was highest for those aged 41-50 (45%) and lowest for those aged 16-30 (37%) and over 60 (36%). There was also some variation with household income: the percentage was highest (48%) for adults living in households with an annual net income of over £25,000. (Table 12.8)
2.12 Information about the frequency of cycling is also collected by the SHS. In 1999, only 3% of adults said that, in the previous seven days, they had made a trip of more than a quarter of a mile by bicycle in order to go somewhere. The percentage was slightly higher for men, for younger adults and for those living in households in the highest income group. Only 4% said that, in the previous seven days, they had made a trip of more than a quarter of a mile by bicycle for pleasure or too keep fit. The percentage was slightly higher for men, for adults aged 31-40 and for those from the highest household income band. (Table 12.9)
2.13 The SHS collects information about the usual main method of travel to school. In 1999, 55% of children in full-time education at school usually walked to school, 23% usually went by bus, 18% by car or van, 1% cycled and about 2% used other means of transport (such as rail, taxi and ferry). There was little difference between the sexes, but the usual means of travel varied greatly with age: 60% of pupils of "primary school" age (those aged up to 11) usually walked to school compared with only 48% of those of "secondary school" age (those aged 12 and over); 23% of "primary" pupils went by car or van compared with only 12% of "secondary" pupils; and only 15% of "primary" pupils usually travelled by bus compared with 36% of those of "secondary" age. There was also some variation with household income: over 28% of pupils from households with an annual net income of £20,000 or more usually travelled by car or van compared with only 18% of all school-children. (Table 12.10)
2.14 Scottish residents made an estimated 2.7 million visits abroad in 1998. In about 2.3 million cases (87%) they left the UK by air. Glasgow was the main airport used, in about 1.2 million cases (45% of all visits abroad), followed by London Heathrow (404,000 or 15%) and Edinburgh (213,000 or 8%). Around 250,000 visits abroad (9%) were made by sea, and roughly 90,000 (3%) were made using the Channel Tunnel. (Table 12.11)
2.15 More than two-thirds of Scottish residents' visits abroad were made for holiday purposes: a package holiday in over 1.1 million cases (42%) and some other kind of holiday in about 700,000 cases (26%). There were roughly 370,000 visits abroad for business purposes (14%), and around 300,000 (11%) to visit friends or relatives. (Table 12.11)
2.16 Almost two-thirds of Scottish residents' visits abroad were made to EC countries (1.7 million or 65%). North America (373,000 or 14%) and Western European countries outwith the EC (269,000 or 10%) were the other main destinations. (Table 12.12)
2.17 Between 1992 and 1999 there has been an increase in the percentage of the working population using cars as the usual means of travel to work (from 64% in 1992 to 69% in 1999) and decreases in the percentages using buses (from 15% to 11%) and walking (from 16% to 13%). (Table 12.13)
2.18 There appears to have been little change in recent years in the average time taken to travel to work by the main modes of transport: about 22 minutes by car; a little over 30 minutes by bus and about 11-12 minutes by foot. The occasional fluctuations in the average time taken for ‘rail’ and ‘other’ may be due to sampling variability. (Table 12.14)
2.19 The longer-term trends are shown by statistics from the population censuses, which have collected information about travel to work since 1966. The percentage of the working population using cars to travel to work has increased from 21% in 1966 to 59% in 1991 and the percentage using buses has fallen from 43% in 1966 to 18% in 1991. There has also been a significant fall in the proportion of the working population who walk to work, from 24% in 1966 to 15% in 1991. (Table 12.15)
2.20 It is estimated that, on an average weekday in 1997, over 4 million person-trips were made by car, bus or train within the area covered by the Central Scotland Transport Model (CSTM3), which is, broadly, from Perth and Dundee to the border. (The basis of these estimates is explained in the "Notes and Definitions" and "Sources" sections.) Over half of these trips were within Glasgow and Strathclyde (excluding Ayrshire), and a fifth were within Edinburgh and the Lothians. Only 12% of trips were between different CSTM3 "sectors", with the largest such flows being roughly 45,000 person trips in each direction between Glasgow/Strathclyde and Central; around 35-40,000 person-trips each way between Edinburgh/Lothians and Glasgow/Strathclyde; and about 35,000 person trips each way between Fife and Edinburgh/Lothians. Of the 4.2 million person trips per day it is estimated that 3.4 million (82%) were by car. (Table 12.16)
2.21 It is estimated that there were nearly 0.8 million person-trips by bus or train per weekday which started or finished in, or passed through, the CSTM3 area. Almost three-fifths of these were within Glasgow/Strathclyde, and nearly a third within Edinburgh/Lothians. There were no cases of a flow between different CSTM3 sectors which involved as many as 10,000 passengers each way per weekday, and the numbers travelling between the CSTM3 area and elsewhere are also estimated to be fewer than 10,000 each way per weekday. (Table 12.16)
2.22 There was an average of almost 3 million trips per weekday by cars and goods vehicles. Almost half were within Glasgow/Strathclyde, and a sixth were within Edinburgh/Lothians: in total, 83% were within one CSTM3 sector. The largest flows between areas were 30-35,000 vehicles each way per weekday between Glasgow/Strathclyde and Central, and about 30,000 vehicles each way per weekday between Edinburgh/Lothians and Glasgow/Strathclyde. Dundee was the sector which had the most traffic with places outwith the CSTM3 area, averaging 26,000 vehicles each way per weekday. (Table 12.16)
3. Notes and Definitions
Travel by Scottish residents
3.1 The first group of notes relates to the statistics (in tables 12.1 to 12.6) which were obtained from the National Travel Survey (NTS). The averages given in the tables are averages per head of population, and they will vary greatly from person to person: for example, there will be many people who do not travel on business at all, and others who travel thousands of miles on business.
3.2 A journey is defined as a one-way course of travel having a single main purpose. Outward and return halves of a return journey are treated as two separate journeys. If a single course of travel involves a mid-way change of purpose then it is split into two journeys (but trivial subsidiary purposes, such as a stop en route to buy a newspaper, are disregarded).
3.3 Main mode of transport: the mode that was used for the longest stage of the journey, where a journey involves more than one mode of transport (eg a bus and then a train). In the text, references to car journeys include a few by van and lorry.
3.4 Length of a journey: the distance actually covered by the traveller, as reported by the traveller and not the distance "as the crow flies".
3.5 Other personal business: includes - eg - journeys to the bank, doctor, hairdresser, library and church.
3.6 Sampling variability: some of the apparent changes in some modes’ figures in Table 12.2 may be due to sampling variability: for example, the apparent fluctuations in the "surface rail" figures (285 miles in 1985/86, 468 miles in 1989/91, 154 miles in 1992/94 and 256 miles in 1995/97) are inconsistent with the changes in the overall figures for rail passenger numbers for the same period. It is likely that the fluctuations in the NTS results reflect the inclusion (by random chance) in the sample of more rail users, or greater rail users, in some years than in other years.
Frequency of driving, walking and cycling; and usual main method of travel to school
3.7 The next group of notes relates to the statistics (in Tables 12.7 to 12.10) which were obtained from the Scottish Household Survey.
3.8 Annual net household income: this is the net income (i.e. after taxation and other deductions) which is brought into the household by the highest income householder and/or his/her spouse or partner, if there is one. It includes any contributions to the household finances made by other members of the household (eg "dig money"). Households for which any of the main components of income are not known (for example, because of refusal to answer a question) are excluded from the analysis.
3.9 Full driving licence: the SHS asks whether the person currently holds "a full driving licence (car or motorcycle)".
3.10 Frequency of driving: the SHS asks how often the person drives nowadays. The interviewer records whichever of the categories shown in the table is the most appropriate, in the light of the answer.
3.11 Frequency of walking: the SHS asks on how many of the last seven days the person made a trip of more than quarter of a mile by foot. The interviewer asks about walking for the purpose of going somewhere, such as work, shopping or friends etc. The interviewer then asks about walking just for the pleasure of walking or to keep fit or to walk the dog.
3.12 Frequency of cycling: the SHS asks on how many of the last seven days the person made a trip of more than quarter of a mile by bicycle. The interviewer asks about cycling for the purpose of going somewhere, such as work, shopping or friends etc. The interviewer then asks about cycling just for the pleasure of cycling or to keep fit.
Scottish residents' visits abroad
3.13 These notes relate to the statistics (in Tables 12.11 and 12.12) which were obtained from the International Passenger Survey.
3.14 Visits abroad: the figures exclude emigrants, people on cruises, those travelling to Eire, and others who are not covered by the International Passenger Survey.
3.15 Miscellaneous and other purposes: includes visits for study, to attend sporting events, for shopping, health, religious or other purposes, and multi-purpose visits for which no one purpose predominates.
3.16 Area visited: in cases where two or more countries are visited, a person is counted on the basis of the one country in which he or she stayed for the longest time.
Trips made on an average weekday
3.17 The remaining notes relate to the statistics in Table 12.16. These are the estimated annual average numbers of trips made per weekday between the areas shown, using the specified modes of transport (for example, they do not include trips made by foot, by bicycle, or by motorcycle). The figures represent the total flows over the whole 24 hours of an average weekday. A return journey, from A to B and back again, on the same day, would be counted as two trips: one from A to B and one from B to A.
3.18 'Person trips' relate to the number of people travelling by the specified modes of transport, and 'vehicle trips' to the numbers of vehicles going between the specified areas. Thus, for example, if a car containing two people goes from A to B, it is counted as two person trips and one vehicle trip.
3.19 The areas identified in the table are "sectors" within the Central Scotland Transport Model (CSTM). These correspond broadly (but not necessarily exactly) to the areas of the similarly-named former Regions and/or current Councils.
3.20 "Elsewhere" defines those areas outwith the CSTM3 model area, including England, and all other parts of Scotland. CSTM3 does not hold information regarding the movement of people for trips wholly outwith the model area.
3.21 In some cases, the estimated average number of trips originating in an area differs markedly from the estimated number with a destination in that area - for example, compare the estimates of 954,000 person trips with a destination in Edinburgh & Lothians and 930,000 trips originating in Edinburgh & Lothians. This is because the estimation process (which is described in section 4) is based upon survey data covering the 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. period, and cannot take full account of trips which involve returning later in the evening. Therefore, the CSTM3-based estimates indicate broadly the levels of flows within Scotland, but do not provide precise measures.
4. Sources
4.1 Travel (within GB) by Scottish residents (Tables 12.1 to 12.6)
4.1.1 Information about travel (within Great Britain) by Scottish residents is obtained from the National Travel Survey (NTS). This collects "travel diary" details from a sample of households across Great Britain. Travel for all private purposes is included. Journeys in the course of work are included if they fulfil the requirement that the main reason for the journey is for the traveller to reach the destination. However, travel in the course of work to convey passengers or to deliver goods is excluded, such as travel in the course of their work by bus drivers, lorry drivers and postmen. Journeys off the public highway, such as country walks, are excluded.
4.1.2 The NTS is not designed to provide reliable estimates for Scotland for single years: the sample includes only a few hundred Scottish households each year. Therefore, the samples for a number of years must be combined in order to produce Scottish results, and even they will be subject to sampling variability.
4.2 Frequencies of driving, walking and cycling; and usual main method of travel to school (Tables 12.7 to 12.10)
4.2.1 Information on these and some other transport-related topics is collected by the Scottish Household Survey, which started in February 1999. Interviewing takes place throughout the year. It is a survey of private households, and so does not cover people in institutional accommodation (such as student halls of residence and nursing homes). The SHS collects information on a wide range of topics, to allow exploration of the relationships between different sets of variables. It focuses in particular on Transport, Local Government and Social Inclusion issues.
4.2.2 In 1999, SHS interviews were conducted with a randomly-chosen sample of about 14,700 households across Scotland. Within each Council area, the sample is stratified using a geo-demographic indicator in order that it will be representative across that Council's area. A higher sampling fraction is used in the areas of the Councils with the smallest populations, in order that (in each two-year period) there is a minimum of 550 household interviews per Council. The results are then reweighted so that they will be representative of Scotland as a whole.
4.2.3 The SHS interview is conducted in two parts. The first part is with the highest income householder, or his/her spouse/partner (if any), who answers questions about the household and its members. This part of the interview provides the information about the ages and sexes of household members, about the annual net household income, about the type of driving licence (if any) held by each adult member of the household, and about the frequency of driving of those who hold a full driving licence. It also provides the information about the usual main method of travel to school for one randomly-chosen schoolchild member of the household (if there is one). Because the information is collected for at most one schoolchild per household, in the analysis proportionately greater weight is given to cases where there are greater numbers of schoolchildren in the household.
4.2.4 The second part of the SHS aims to obtain results which are representative of Scottish adults by interviewing a randomly-chosen adult member of the household (who may happen to be the person who answered the questions in the first part of the interview - for example, this is always the case for single pensioner households). The second part of the survey has fewer respondents because some of the randomly-chosen adults cannot be interviewed, perhaps because they choose not to take part in the survey or perhaps because the interviewer cannot contact them. This part of the interview provides the information about the frequency of walking and the frequency of cycling. Because at most one adult is interviewed per household, in the analysis proportionately greater weight is given to cases where there are greater numbers of adults in the household.
4.3 Scottish residents' visits abroad (Tables 12.11 and 12.12)
4.3.1 This information is collected by the International Passenger Survey, from a sample of passengers leaving the UK by the principal air, sea and tunnel routes (excluding some routes which are to small in volume or which are too expensive to be covered). Travellers passing through passport control during the day are randomly selected for interview (interviewing is suspended at night). A weighting procedure takes account of the non-sampled routes and time periods.
4.3.2 The survey covers both adults and children, and is voluntary: the response rate was 81% in 1998. The results reported in these tables are based upon interviews with about 2,300 Scottish residents.
4.4 Travel to work (Tables 12.13 to 12.15)
4.4.1 Information about travel to work is obtained from the Labour Force Survey using questions which have been included in those survey interviews which have been conducted in the Autumn each year since 1992. The tables include the self-employed, those on Government training schemes and unpaid family workers as well as employees, but exclude those working at home, and those whose workplace or mode of transport to work was not known. The LFS is a household survey covering 60,000 households each quarter in GB, and about 6,000 households per quarter in Scotland.
4.4.2 Information about travel to work is also collected by the Census of Population. There have been some changes in the categories used — for example, the 1966 Census had a category described as "none" which was included in the 1971 Census under its "On foot and none" category; the 1971 Census had a category described as "Public Transport" which was separate from the categories for "Train" and "Bus"; and the 1981 and 1991 Census "travel to work" figures exclude those who were working at home. However, the effect of such differences on the statistics will be small compared to the scale of the changes in the shares of the main modes of travel.
4.5 Trips made on an average weekday (Table 12.16)
4.5.1 These figures were provided using the Central Scotland Transport Model (CSTM3). This covers the area from Perth and Dundee to the border, in which lives roughly 80% of the population of Scotland.
4.5.2 The area covered by the model is divided into 1181 zones. The model uses planning data for each zone (eg population, number of households, car ownership, employment, number of employed residents) to calculate the number of trips that would be expected to be generated. The pattern of travel movements is held in a series of trip matrices covering the morning peak period, the evening peak period and the intervening off-peak period. Taken together, these matrices can be combined to provide a matrix reflecting trip movements during the period 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on a typical weekday. Daily, monthly and annual averages can then be derived by grossing-up these figures. The resulting expected flows around the transport network are then "calibrated" and "validated" using information about the actual numbers of trips that were made on particular routes. This information was collected using traffic counts, roadside interviews and surveys of passengers on public transport. Some of the information was collected specifically for the CSTM3, and some was obtained from other ‘donor’ models (such as the Strathclyde Integrated Transport Model). While some of the data were collected in other years, the programme of surveys to collect data for the CSTM started in 1997, and 1997 is the base year for the model.
4.5.3 Applying the calibration and validation process to the "expected numbers of generated trips" calculated by the model produces estimates of the numbers of trips which are consistent with the observed traffic counts and the results of surveys and interviews. The estimated numbers of trips for the areas shown in the table were then produced by aggregating the estimated numbers of trips for the relevant zones.
4.5.4 The quality and coverage of the data that are held within the CSTM3 vary between different areas and different parts of the transport network. This is the result of the historical interest in the movement of people and goods between various points on the transport network, and the resultant availability of data. A programme of work has been planned to improve the quality of the CSTM3's data for those areas where it is, at present, weak.
5. Further Information
5.1 The Scottish Executive statistical bulletin " Travel by Scottish residents: some National Travel Survey results" provides a range of National Travel Survey statistics for Scotland, and some information about the survey. More details of this publication are given under "Scottish Executive Transport Statistics publications". The National Travel Survey is also described in the DETR publications "Focus on Personal Travel" and "National Travel Survey 1996-98 update", and in the "National Travel Survey Technical Report", which is produced by the Office for National Statistics.
5.2 Enquiries regarding National Travel Survey statistics, and transport statistics from the Labour Force Survey, should be directed to Spencer Broadley of the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions (tel: 020 7944 3097)
5.3 There are a number of publications on the Scottish Household Survey. A series of quarterly bulletins, which started in August 1999, provides a selection of SHS results, including some on transport-related topics, together with a brief description of the survey. More detailed information will be provided by the first SHS Annual Report, and its accompanying Technical Report, which should be published in September 2000. All SHS publications are available from the Stationery Office bookshop.
5.4 Enquiries regarding the Scottish Household Survey should be directed to the SHS Project Manager: Louise Finlayson of the Scottish Executive Central Research Unit (tel: 0131 244 7557).
5.5 The report on the International Passenger Survey is called "Travel Trends", and is published by the Stationery Office. Enquiries regarding the International Passenger Survey should be directed to Devi Mylvaganam of DETR (tel: 020 7944 3088).
5.6 Further information or guidance on the detailed application of CSTM3 can be obtained from Bill Smith, the Scottish Executive Transport Division 1 (tel: 0131 244 7260) or Kevin Lumsdale, MVA (tel: 0131 557 5533).