PUPIL PROJECTIONS FOR SCOTLAND, 2003

26 August, 2003
A Scottish Executive National Statistics Publication

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The latest projections of pupil numbers in schools in Scotland over the next decade are published today by the Scottish Executive. This updates projected pupil figures published in February 2003.

The main findings are: -

• The total number of pupils receiving publicly funded education is projected to decrease steadily from the current level of 796 thousand in 2002, to 674 thousand in 2013, a decrease of 15 per cent.
• The number of pupils in publicly funded primary schools is projected to continue to fall steadily from the current level of 414 thousand, to 353 thousand in 2010, and then more slowly to 347 thousand in 2013, 16 per cent less than at present.
• The number of pupils in publicly funded secondary schools is projected to increase from the current level of 317 thousand to 320 thousand in 2003. A steady fall is then anticipated so that the number in 2013 is estimated to be 268 thousand, 15 per cent less than at present.
• The numbers of pupils in publicly funded special schools are projected to fall in line with the anticipated decrease in the number of children of school age, but have also been adjusted to account for the potential impact of mainstreaming of pupils with special educational needs.
• The size of the cohort of pupils entering P1, excluding the effect of mainstreaming, is projected to decline quite sharply from 56 thousand in 2002 to 51 thousand in 2006, then after a slight rise in 2007 and 2008 to fall to 50 thousand in 2013.
• The size of the cohort of pupils entering S1, excluding the effect of mainstreaming, is projected to fall from 62 thousand in 2002 to 56 thousand in 2007 and then to 49 thousand in 2013.

The following tables give projected pupil totals up to 2013:

Table 1 Number of pupils by school sector
Table 2 Number of pupils by age receiving publicly funded education
Table 3 Number of pupils by stage in publicly funded primary and secondary schools
Chart 1 Population aged 5-14 in Scotland, 1911-2026
Chart 2 Number of pupils in publicly funded primary and secondary schools

BACKGROUND NOTES

1. The information in this News Release is derived from:

a) Census of Pre-school Education Centres, 2003 and previous — pupil and teacher counts
b) School Census September 2002, and previous - pupil and teacher counts.
c) General Register Office for Scotland - mid-year population estimates up to 2001, re-based using 2001 population census. 2002 estimates are not used as equivalent population projections are not available.
d) General Register Office for Scotland - 2001 based population projections for 2002 onwards.

Pre-school

2. The methodology employed in projecting numbers of children in pre-school centres uses the 2003 Pre-school Census pupil counts, split by age, and population projections.

3. The assumption is made that uptake rates, in response to the Government commitment to provide a pre-school place for all three and four year olds, by 2002, will be:

i 90 per cent for ‘three year olds’ (ante pre-school year)
ii around 100 per cent for ‘four year olds’ (pre-school year).

4. Figures used in these projections are however full-time equivalents. They are therefore lower than shown in previous years.

Primary and Secondary

(The methodology has changed since last year.)

5. Firstly, the model calculates the participation rate of pupils of each age, in each sector, compared to the total number of children according to the population estimates. (Data on the age of pupils were available for the first time in the 2002 ScotXed pupil census. For previous years, data giving the stage of the pupil are converted to age using cohort-specific age/stage patterns from this year's pupil census)

6. Then, for a given cohort moving through the school, the participation rate for a given year is projected using the knowledge of the previous year's participation rate for that cohort, together with the average change in participation rates at that age. (For example, if 98.5% of 6 year-olds were in mainstream primaries in 2002, and on average over the past five years the participation rate of 6 year-olds has dropped 0.3 percentage points by the time they are 7, then the projected participation rate for 7 year-olds in 2003 will be 98.2%.) This is a significant change in the methodology from previous years, when fixed age-specific participation rates were used.

7. The same methodology is used for 17 and 18 year-olds (in previous years these were calculated in a different way than for other ages) but, where this results in a lower participation rate than the average over 1998-2002, the average is used instead. The 5 year average is used for 19 year-olds.

8. Participation rates for cohorts not yet in the system are calculated using 3-year average rates for 3, 4 and 5 year-olds, which are then projected forward using the same methodology as above.

9. The projections for pre-school and primary school age children are increasingly affected by predicted birth rates and unknown participation rates - this introduces a greater element of uncertainty. The fall in projected numbers is principally due to very low birth rates over the past few years. The population projections, which operate from a 2001 population census base, predict a further pronounced decline in birth rates over the period covered.

Special Schools

10. Pupil numbers in special schools are projected using age-specific participation rates. The lower estimate from the Audit Scotland/ HMIE publication Moving to Mainstream has then been used, phased in over 7 years, to adjust the figures to account for the potential impact of mainstreaming of pupils, arising from section 15 of the Standards in Scotland's Schools etc. Act 2000. These have been subtracted from the special school figures and added to primary and secondary schools in proportion to the primary/secondary ratio in mainstream pupil numbers.

Teacher numbers

11. Projected pupil figures will subsequently be fed into the Teacher Workforce Planning model, which estimates the number of new teachers that will be needed each year to meet this overall demand. The model takes account of a range of other relevant information, such as age profiles and numbers of teachers entering and leaving the profession, and current teacher/pupil ratio patterns. The results of this exercise will be published early next year.

12. All tables are available on the Scottish Executive website at www.scotland.gov.uk/stats

13. Public enquiries (non-media) about the information contained in this News Release should be addressed to Mal Cooke, Education and Children Statistics,
SEED, 1-A Victoria Quay,
Edinburgh, EH6 6QQ.
Telephone : 0131-244-1689
or e-mail : ea.stats@scotland.gsi.gov.uk

14. Media enquiries about the information in this notice should be addressed to: Press Education : 0131 244 4001

Table 1: Pupil Projections for Scotland
Number of pupils (thousands) at September by school sector

(1) Pre-school figures are full-time equivalents

Table 2: Pupil Projections for Scotland
Number of pupils (thousands) receiving publicly funded education at September, by age at following June⁽¹⁾⁽²⁾

(1) Hence, for example, the 2003 figures are projected numbers in school at September 2003, by what their age will be by June 2004
(2) Pre-school figures are full-time equivalents

Table 3: Pupil Projections for Scotland

Number of pupils (thousands) at September by stage in publicly funded primary and secondary schools⁽¹⁾

(1) No adjustment has been made in this table for the effect of mainstreaming

Chart 1: Population aged 5-14 in Scotland, 1911-2026

Chart 2: Number of pupils in publicly funded primary and secondary schools