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SCOTTISH TRANSPORT STATISTICS: No 21

HISTORICAL SERIES

1. Introduction

1.1 The tables that follow provide a summary of the trends in passenger and freight transport, and some other vehicle related statistics, since 1960 in some cases. The series are repeated in index form to facilitate comparison of the trends for the different modes.

1.2 The main changes to this section are:

• Table H2 has been expanded to include figures for coastwise shipping and, in a separate part, figures for freight moved (tonne-kilometres);
• in Table H3, the replacement of the numbers of injury road accidents with the numbers of casualties injured in those accidents.

2. Passenger traffic - main points

2.1 Although the volume of car traffic on major roads (Motorways and A roads) has more than doubled, from an estimated 9,300 million vehicle kilometres in 1975 to almost 20,000 million vehicle kilometres in 2000, it has remained fairly level over the past 5 years. Figure H1 shows that the main rise was between 1983 and 1995. (Table H1)

2.2 There were almost 1.7 million passenger journeys on local bus services in 1960. The number had almost halved by 1975. Since then, it has more than halved again, from 891 million in 1975 to 436 million in 2000-01. There were falls in every year since 1960 apart from 1985, 1987, 1988, 1999 and 2000. Despite this, Figure H2 shows that local bus passenger numbers are still far greater than rail, air or ferry passenger numbers. (Table H1)

2.3 The number of rail passenger journeys fell from a peak of 73 million in 1964 to a low of 50 million in 1982. Figure H3 shows that, from then until 1996-97, passenger numbers remained between 50 million and 60 million per year. Rail passenger numbers had been rising since 1994-95 and reached almost 68 million in 2000-01, but then fell to just over 65 million in 2001-02. (Table H1)

2.4 The volume of air passenger traffic increased from 1.2 million terminal passengers in 1960 to 18.1 million in 2001, the highest level ever recorded. There have been increases in every year since 1960 apart from 1968, 1974, 1982, 1985 and 1991. (Table H1)

3. Freight traffic - main points

3.1 The amount of freight carried by road fluctuated between 1975 and 1987 (see Figure H4), rising to 172 million tonnes per year in 1976 and falling to 128 million tonnes per year in 1986. Since 1988, it has been more stable, varying between 149 million tonnes (in 1991) and 162 million tonnes (in 1996). The total of 151 million tonnes in 2001 was the second lowest in the period since 1988. Figure H4 shows that, in terms of tonnes lifted, much more freight is carried by road than by any other mode of transport. (Table H2[a])

3.2 The volume of rail freight traffic fell from 30 million tonnes in 1960 to 5 million tonnes in 1993. Figure H5 shows that there has been little change since then. (Table H2)

3.3 Coastal shipping rose rapidly, from 5 million tonnes in 1975 to 34 million tonnes in 1980. Since then, the total has fluctuated, rising to 37 million (in 1983) and falling to 29 million (in 1987 and 1993). It then rose to a peak of 46 million in 1998 before falling back. The figure of 31 million in 2000 is on a different basis from the figures for earlier years - see Chapter 10. (Table H2[a])

3.4 From 1982, the annual total freight lifted on inland waterways has remained between about 9 and 12 million tonnes. (Table H2[a])

3.5 The amount of oil carried in pipelines rose rapidly to 23 million tonnes in 1977, and has fluctuated since then between 21 million tonnes and 30 million tonnes per year. (Table H2[a])

3.6 While road freight accounts for by far the largest number of tonnes lifted, a different picture is seen when account is taken of the distance that freight is carried. In terms of tonne-kilometres, coastwise shipping accounts for the largest amount of freight moved, with road coming second. Rail and pipeline still move smaller amounts of freight than road. However, they represent a higher proportion of the total for road freight when they are measured in tonne-kilometres, because of the greater distance (on average) for which freight is carried by rail and by pipeline.

4. Other vehicle related statistics - main points

4.1 The number of vehicles licensed has increased from an estimated 0.8 million in 1962 to over 2.2 million in 2001. Figure H6 shows the trends since 1975: there have been increases in almost every year. (Table H3)

4.2 The number of new registrations of vehicles has increased from 86,000 in 1962 to 241,000 in 2001, the highest level ever recorded. Figure H7 shows that it has risen and fallen a number of times during the period since 1975. (Table H3)

4.3 The number of casualties injured in road accidents fell from 26,703 in 1962 to 19,894 in 2001. Figure H8 shows that there have been falls in most years since 1979. Although in some years the drop appeared to be levelling off, over the longer-term the number of casualties injured in road accidents has fallen steadily. (Table H3)

4.4 The number of vehicle crossings on toll bridges in 2001 was about 40.8 million, over 3¹/₂ times the 11.3 million in 1971. (Table H3)

5. Notes, Sources and Further Information

5.1 In general, notes and definitions of these statistics, and details of the sources of the statistics and where further information may be found, appear at the start of the chapter on each topic. This section, therefore, only covers matters not dealt with in earlier chapters.

5.2 Passenger Traffic

5.2.1 Car Traffic on major roads: Chapter 6 describes the methods used to estimate the volume of car traffic on major roads in Scotland for 1983 and subsequent years. As those methods cannot be used to estimate car traffic in Scotland for earlier years, the Scottish Executive had to make ad-hoc estimates for the years from 1975 to 1982. These ad-hoc estimates were calculated using the rate of change in the volume of traffic for Great Britain as a whole, adjusted to take account of changes in the number of vehicles licensed in Scotland relative to the number for Great Britain as a whole. The estimates for 1975 to 1982 therefore indicate the likely level of car traffic on major roads in Scotland in those years, and may well be considerably less accurate than the estimates for later years.

5.2.2 Bus Passengers: Chapter 2 describes the method used to collect these statistics with effect from the 1985-86 financial year. A different method was used for 1984 and earlier years: the figures for 1975 to 1984 relate to calendar years and, prior to 1986, the term "stage services" was used (rather than "local services"). The figures for 1960 to 1974 are on a different basis: they were produced by adding together the total numbers of passenger journeys reported by the Scottish Bus Group (for calendar years) and the four city corporations (for financial years). They therefore include any non-local services run by these operators, and exclude any local (or "stage") services that were run by other operators. In addition, it appears that the figures reported by the Glasgow city corporation may have included passenger journeys on trolley buses and on the Glasgow Underground.

5.2.3 Rail Passengers: See Chapter 8. The statistics relate to financial years with effect from 1985-86. The figure for 1984 is derived from a total for the fifteen-month period 1 January 1984 to 31 March 1985, by scaling this down to an estimate for a twelve-month period. The figures for 1983 and earlier years are for calendar years. The figures for 1990-91 and earlier years were provided by British Rail after the end of each year; those for 1991-92 to 1999-2000 were provided by the Association of Train Operating Companies in Spring 2001.

5.2.4 Air Passengers: Chapter 9 describes these statistics.

5.3 Freight Traffic

5.3.1 Road Freight: Chapter 3 describes these statistics. There is a small discontinuity between the figures for 1986 and 1987: the former excludes freight whose destination is Northern Ireland, and the latter includes such freight. As Table 3.1 shows, the amount involved is a very small percentage of the total.

5.3.2 Rail Freight: See Chapter 8. The statistics relate to financial years with effect from 1985-86. The figure for 1984 is derived from a total for the fifteen-month period from 1 January 1984 to 31 March 1985, by scaling this down to an estimate for a twelve-month period. The figures for 1983 and earlier years are for calendar years.

5.3.3 Coastal shipping: covers freight on coastwise voyages for which either the origin or the destination (or both) is in Scotland - i.e. all coastwise freight lifted in Scotland plus the coastwise freight lifted elsewhere in the UK which is discharged in Scotland. This definition of coastal shipping excludes foreign, "one port" and inland waterway freight shipping. For historical reasons, the definition used for the "coastal shipping" series differs from the definitions which are used for the water transport statistics provided in chapter 10. There is a small discontinuity between 1981 and 1982, due to a change in definitions.

5.3.4 Coastwise Shipping: See Chapter 10. These figures are lower than the figures for coastal shipping, because the latter includes freight lifted elsewhere in the UK which is discharged in Scotland.

5.3.5 Inland Waterway: See Chapter 10. Unfortunately, figures for 1979 and earlier years are not readily available.

5.3.6 Pipeline: the estimates are of the total carried by oil pipelines which start in Scotland and are 50km or more in length. Further information about these estimates is given in Section 4 of the Summary of Transport in Scotland.

5.4 Other vehicle related statistics

5.4.1 Vehicles Licensed: See Chapter 1. The figures for 1962 to 1974 represented the numbers of licences current at any time during the third quarter. They were derived from an annual "census" which used the records held by local licensing authorities. The method underlying the census then changed as vehicle records were gradually transferred from local taxation offices to the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Centre. Consequently, the figures for 1974 to 1978 are not comparable. No census results were available for 1977. Censuses based entirely on the record of licensed vehicles at the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA) began on 31 December 1978 and subsequent counts were taken on the last day of each year up to and including 31 December 1992. In 1992 the source of this information changed, as described in Chapter 1 - the new source figures for all vehicles licensed at the end of 1992 are 2.4% lower for Scotland than the figures from the old source.

5.4.2 Road Accident Casualties: Chapter 7 describes these statistics.

5.4.3 Toll Bridges: See Chapter 4. The Erskine Bridge opened on 2nd July 1971, so the figure for that year does not include a full year's contribution from that bridge. The figure for 1979 is also incomplete, because no vehicle crossings were recorded for the Erskine Bridge for about two months due to industrial action by the toll collectors.

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