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News Release

PUPIL AND TEACHER PROJECTIONS FOR SCOTLAND, 2002

22 August 2002

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The latest projections of pupil and teacher numbers in schools in Scotland over the next decade are published today by the Scottish Executive. This News Release updates projected pupil figures published in July 2001 and again includes projected numbers for children in pre-school education, and projected teacher figures for publicly funded primary, secondary and special schools.

Projected numbers are given for pupils in pre-school education and publicly funded and independent schools, up to 2012. An age breakdown for all pupils receiving publicly funded education and a stage breakdown for publicly funded primary and secondary schools are also shown. Projected teacher totals, shown as full-time equivalents (FTE’s) are also given up to 2012, for publicly funded primary, secondary and special schools.

Projected numbers of pupils have been estimated using information collected via the latest Pre-school and School Censuses, and population projections obtained from the General Register Office for Scotland. Data from the 2001 Population Census is not yet available.

Projected teacher figures are based on the projected pupil numbers, and information from the September 2001 School Census. The figures again incorporate extra teachers needed for the P1-P3 class size initiative in the primary sector, and for the implementation of the McCrone settlement in the primary and secondary sectors.

Further details on the methodology used are given in the notes at the back of this News Release.

Pupil Projections

The main findings are: -

• The number of pupils in pre-school centres is expected to rise from 88,800 (September 1999) to 105,600 in 2002, an increase of 19 per cent. Thereafter, a gradual decrease in the number of pre-school pupils is anticipated, to around 94,000 in 2012. This represents a fall of 11 per cent from 2002, and is in line with the expected decrease in the number of children of pre-school age.
• The number of pupils in publicly funded primary schools is projected to continue to fall steadily from the current (September 2001) level of 420,500. The total is estimated to fall to 367,000 in 2007, 13 per cent less than at present and to 339,300 in 2012, 19 per cent less than at present.
• Under an assumption that staying-on rates for pupils aged 16,17 and 18 increase at a rate defined by the average increase over the past five years, the number of pupils in publicly funded secondary schools is projected to increase gradually from the current level of 316,400 to 320,200 in 2004. A steady fall is then anticipated so that the number in 2012 is estimated to be 280,100, 13 per cent less than at present.
• The numbers of pupils in publicly funded special schools and independent schools are both projected to fall, in line with the anticipated decrease in the number of children of school age.
• The total number of pupils receiving publicly funded education is projected to decrease gradually from the current level of 851,600, to 846,200 in 2002. Thereafter, a more pronounced decline will result in a fall to 720,700 in 2012, a decrease of 15 per cent from current levels.
• The size of the cohort of pupils entering P1 is projected to decline quite sharply from 56,800 in 2001 to 50,300 in 2005, then more slowly to 47,900 in 2012.
• The size of the cohort of pupils entering S1 is projected to rise from 59,300 in 2001 to 62,300 in 2003 and then to decline sharply to 49,300 in 2011.

Teacher Projections

The main findings are:

• The number of FTE teachers in publicly funded primary schools will rise from the current (September 2001) level of 22,300, as a result of the McCrone Agreement. This rise will occur over several years as the individual stages are implemented, and to a large extent is offset by the effect of falling pupil rolls. From the peak of 22,700 teachers in 2004, teacher numbers are projected to fall again in line with pupil projections.
• The number of FTE teachers in publicly funded secondary schools is expected to rise from the current (September 2001) level of 24,600 to 25,200 in 2004, as pupil numbers are maintained and additional teachers resulting from the McCrone Agreement are introduced. The projected numbers then gradually decrease, in line with pupil projections, to 22,600 in 2012, 8 per cent less than at present.
• In the publicly funded special sector, teacher numbers are expected to decrease gradually, in line with the projected gradual decline in the number of pupils at special schools.

The following tables, giving projected pupil and teacher totals up to 2012, and charts, are available:

• Table 1:Number of pupils by school sector
• Table 2:Number of pupils by age receiving publicly funded education
• Table 3:Number of pupils by stage in publicly funded primary and secondary schools
• Table 4:Number of FTE teachers in publicly funded schools, by school sector
• Chart 1:Number of pupils and FTE teachers in publicly funded primary and secondary schools

NOTES TO NEWS EDITORS

1.The information in this News Release is derived from:

• a)Census of Pre-school Education Centres, 2000 — pupil counts and 1999 teacher counts
• b)School Census September 1999, 2000, 2001 - pupil and teacher counts.
• c)General Register Office for Scotland - mid-2000 based population projections.

2.The methodology employed in projecting numbers of children in pre-school centres uses the 2000 Pre-school Census pupil counts, split by age, and population projections.

The assumption is made that uptake rates, in response to the Government commitment to provide a pre-school place for all three and four year olds, by 2002, will be:

• (i)around 85 per cent for ‘three year olds’ (ante pre-school year).
• (ii)around 98 per cent for ‘four year olds’ (pre-school year).

3.The methodology for the pupil projections firstly compares the School Census pupil counts for 1999, 2000 and 2001 with the corresponding population data. The population data are then ‘re-based’ so as to be fully consistent with the School Census figures, which are taken to be a more accurate measure of the recent school population.

4.The School Census pupil counts are split for the publicly funded and independent sectors. Within these sectors, the pupil counts are further split into primary, secondary and special sectors. A 3-year average (1999, 2000 and 2001) is then taken of the proportion of pupils of a given age in each of these sectors. Forward projections are then calculated for these sectors by applying these proportions to the future population estimates.

5.The projected number of pupils aged 16, 17 and 18 is derived from the application of staying-on rates to the estimates for 14 years olds. The projections assume that the staying-on rates increase gradually at a rate defined by the average increase over the past 5 years.

6.This means that the staying-on rate for those aged 16, which was 74 per cent in 2001, is projected to rise to 77 per cent in 2012. For those aged 17, the staying-on rate of 39 per cent in 2001 is projected to rise to 44 per cent in 2012. The staying-on rate for 18 year olds is projected to remain at 1.0 per cent.

7.This technique of incrementing the staying-on rates each year has not been applied to the independent secondary sector. This is because staying on rates here are already very high and so have limited room to increase - the effect on the projections would be very small indeed.

8.The projections for pre-school and primary school age children are increasingly affected by predicted birth rates - this introduces a greater element of uncertainty. The fall in projected numbers is principally due to very low birth rates over the past few years. The population projections, which operate from a 2000 base, predict a further pronounced decline in birth rates over the period covered.

9.The primary and secondary teacher projections firstly consider pupil and teacher counts from the School Census on a school-by-school basis. FTE teacher numbers are then forecast for each school, based on the projected school roll and pupil/teacher ratio, determined by size of school. Additional teachers resulting from policy initiatives are then incorporated into the projections.

Additional teachers needed as a result of the McCrone Agreement are incorporated in the teacher projections.

The two specific factors from the McCrone Agreement giving rise to an increased demand for teachers are:

• (a)Reduction in class contact time to 22.5 hours per week.
• (b)Reduction of teacher probationary period to one year, with 70% class contact time of a fully registered teacher.

10.Projected teacher figures will subsequently be fed into the Teacher Workforce Planning model, which estimates the number of new teachers that will be needed each year to meet this overall demand. The model takes account of a range of other relevant information, such as age profiles and numbers of teachers entering and leaving the profession. The results of this exercise will be published later this year. Note that the Teacher Workforce Planning model operates on a headcount (rather than FTE) basis, as its main aim is to advise on how many students should be admitted to teacher training courses each year.

11.It should be noted that adjustments will subsequently be made to the projected teacher figures for incorporation into the Teacher Workforce Planning model. This is primarily to counteract the fluctuation in the projected number of teachers between 2002 and 2006 due to the phased implementation of the McCrone Agreement. In effect, the demand for teachers will be ‘smoothed’ to enable the Teacher Education Institutions to plan their student intakes in an orderly fashion.

12.Special school teacher projections are based on projected number of pupils in special schools, and current pupil/teacher ratios, taken from the September 2001 School Census.

13.At present, it is not possible to make accurate projections for the number of teachers in the pre-school sector. In the context of the recent and ongoing expansion of pre-school provision and the partnership arrangements now in place, the Scottish Executive is considering new guidance on teacher input, to replace that in The Schools Code (which detailed requirements for teacher involvement and class sizes in local authority nurseries). The joint effects of the pre-school expansion and this related new guidance are still being considered in terms of their implications for future teacher numbers.

14.All tables are available on the Scottish Executive website at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00183-00.asp

15.Public enquiries (non-media) about the information contained in this News Release should be addressed to Mal Cooke, Education and Children Statistics, SEED, 1-A Victoria Quay, Edinburgh, EH6 6QQ. Telephone : 0131-244-1689

or e-mail : ea.stats@scotland.gsi.gov.uk

For media-related enquiries please telephone 0131-244-2087

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