ROAD ACCIDENTS SCOTLAND 2000

Commentary

1. Trends in the numbers of Road Accidents and Casualties

1.1 Main Points

Table 1 provides figures for the population of Scotland, the numbers of vehicles licensed, the total road length in Scotland, the volume of traffic on both major roads (motorways and A roads) and on all roads, the numbers of injury road accidents, the numbers of vehicles involved and the numbers of casualties. The numbers of injury road accidents were first recorded separately in 1966, while the numbers of casualties are available back to 1938. Information on the severities of the accidents, and of the injuries suffered by the casualties, is provided in Table 2. The trends since 1966 in the numbers of injury road accidents and the numbers of casualties are illustrated in Figures 1 and 2. Figure 3 shows how the numbers of casualties have changed since 1981, how they compare with the average for the period 1981-85, and whether or not the target of reducing the number of casualties by one-third from the 1981-85 average level by the year 2000 has been achieved.

Although the numbers of injury road accidents have fallen in most of the past ten years, in 2000, the number of fatal accidents increased by 11 to 296. However, this was still the second lowest number of fatal accidents since the current records of their numbers began in 1970, and was 49% below the 1981-85 average. The number of serious injury accidents in 2000 (2,995) fell by 210 to the lowest number since the records of serious accidents began in 1970, and was 56% below the 1981-85 average. The number of "slight injury" accidents (11,784) in 2000 was 1% less than in the previous year, and 10% less than the 1981-85 average.

The number of people fatally injured in road accidents in Scotland in 2000 was 325, 15 (5%) more than in 1999. The 2000 figure was the second lowest for at least 50 years, and 49% below the 1981-85 average number of fatalities per year, so the target of a one-third reduction was surpassed.

There were 3,555 people recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 2000, 206 (5%) fewer than in 1999. This was the lowest number since records of the numbers of serious injuries began in 1950, and 57% below the 1981-85 average level, so the target of a one-third reduction was surpassed.

In 2000, 16,571 people were recorded as slightly injured. This is the lowest figure recorded in the past 40 years, and was 356 (2%) fewer than in 1999. However, it is only 9% below the 1981-85 average level, and therefore the target of a one-third reduction was not achieved.

The total number of casualties in 2000 was 20,451. This was 547 (3%) less than in 1999, and was the lowest figure for more than 40 years. It is 25% below the 1981-85 average level, and therefore the target of a one-third reduction was not achieved.

The reductions in the numbers of accidents and casualties compared with the 1981-85 annual averages are even more significant given that the number of vehicles licensed in Scotland in 2000 was 54% higher than the 1981-85 average, and that traffic on major roads in Scotland in 2000 was estimated to have grown by around a third since the targets for 2000 were set in 1987.

1.2 Accidents

In 1966 there were just over 23,200 injury road accidents and the annual total remained around this level until 1973. Numbers then dropped considerably in 1974 and 1975 to about 20,600. This was the time of a fuel crisis when a national speed limit of 50 mph was introduced and the volume of traffic in Great Britain fell by 3% in 1974. Accident numbers increased again in 1976 and reached a peak of nearly 23,100 in 1979.

Fig 2 goes here

G04

G04In the early 1980s numbers began to fall, and did so particularly sharply in 1983 when the total number of injury accidents fell by 7% in a single year to 19,400, serious accidents fell by 13% to just over 6,400, and fatal accidents fell by 11% to 568. The year 1983 was when the 1981 Transport Act came into force and changed the law relating to drink driving, with the introduction of evidential breath testing. Compulsory front seat belt wearing and new procedures for licensing learner motor cyclists were also introduced in 1983. After 1983 the total number of injury accidents increased again to over 20,600 in 1985, and the number of serious accidents rose to just over 6,500 while fatal accidents continued to fall.

In 1987 the Government adopted a target to reduce road casualties by one third from the 1981-85 annual average by the year 2000 (see the Introduction). The 1981-85 annual average for the total number of injury accidents was just under 20,500, for serious accidents it was just over 6,800, and for fatal accidents it was 581.

By 1987 the total number of injury accidents had fallen to under 18,700, 9% less than the 1981-85 average, but in 1989 it was up again to just over 20,600, just above the 1981-85 average.

1989 was the most recent peak in the total number of injury accidents. (In contrast, in 1989, serious accidents, at just over 5,800, and fatal accidents, at 496, were both 15% less than the 1981-85 average.) Since 1989, the total number of injury accidents has fallen in 9 out of 11 years, and in 2000 it was at the lowest level ever recorded. The 2000 figure of 15,075 was 2% less than in 1999, and 26% less than the 1981-85 annual average.

In recent years, the number of fatal accidents has fallen considerably from the 1981-85 average level of 581 to 285 in 1999, which was the lowest ever recorded. Although the number increased to 296 in 2000, this was still 49% below the 1981-85 average.

For serious accidents, the trend has also been downwards. The number of serious accidents has fallen from the 1981-85 average level of just over 6,800, to 2,995 in 2000, the lowest number ever recorded, and 56% below the 1981-85 average.

The numbers of slight accidents have not changed so much over the years: while sometimes rising and sometimes falling, they have remained between about 12,000 and 15,000 since 1970. The 2000 figure of 11,784 was the lowest since slight accident numbers were first recorded in 1970, but is only 1,279 (10%) lower than the 1981-85 average of 13,063.

1.3 Casualties

As the numbers of accidents have fallen, so have the numbers of casualties. Therefore, this section does not repeat the previous section’s detailed analysis of the way in which the numbers have changed over the past 30 years.

Numbers fatally injured

The number of people fatally injured in road accidents in Scotland in 2000 was 325. This was the second lowest figure since the current records began over 50 years ago. With a few exceptions, there has been a fall in each year since 1978, and for most of that period the figures show a clear, steady long-term downward trend, particularly between 1982 and 1994. Since then, the numbers appear to have been fluctuating around a less pronounced downwards trend. Although there was a rise in the latest year, the number in 2000 was 12% below the average for the previous five years (368). The 2000 figure was 49% below the 1981-85 average number of fatalities per year, and therefore the target of a one-third reduction by the year 2000 has been exceeded for fatalities.

Fig 3 goes here

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Numbers seriously injured

There were 3,555 people recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 2000: 206 (5%) fewer than in 1999: previously, the figures from 1996 to 1998 had appeared to indicate little change, all being between about 4,040 and 4,070. The 2000 figure is the lowest number since records of the numbers of serious injuries began in 1950. The long term trend shows that the number of serious casualties peaked in the early 1970's at around 10,000 and has generally been falling since the early 1980's. However, there has been some fluctuation around the long-term downwards trend, and there appeared to be a levelling-off when the figures for 1996, 1997 and 1998 were all around 4,050. But the number of people seriously injured in 2000 was about 500 below that level, so it appears that the downward trend has resumed. The 2000 figure is 57% below the 1981-85 average, so the target has been bettered for seriously injured casualties.

Numbers slightly injured

There were 16,571 people recorded as slightly injured in 2000: 356 (2%) fewer than in 1999, and the lowest number since 1957. Between 1970 and 1990, the figures fluctuated in a range which was broadly 17,000 to 21,000. The fall between 1990 and 1995 in the number of people with slight injuries, followed by an apparent levelling-off at around 17-18,000 in each of the years from 1996 to 1999, could have been a continuation of that pattern. However, the figure for 2000 was below the bottom of that range. The 2000 figure of 16,571 is only 9.2% below the 1981-85 average and so the target of a one-third reduction has not been achieved for slight casualties.

Total numbers of casualties

The total number of casualties (of all severities) in 2000 was 20,451, 547 (3%) fewer than in 1999. This represented the lowest number of casualties since 1954. Between about 1970 and 1990, the figures appeared to fluctuate greatly about a general downward trend. Subsequently, the total number of casualties fell markedly from the level of the most recent "short-term" peak (which was over 27,000 in both 1989 and 1990), before appearing to level off: the figures for each of the years from 1993 to 1998 were all within 600 (3%) of the average of 22,330 for those six years. However, as the totals for 1999 and 2000 were both under 21,000, it appears that the downward trend may have resumed. The 2000 total was 25% below the 1981-85 average, and therefore the target of a one-third reduction in the total number of casualties has not been met.

2. Accidents

2.1 Accidents by police force area (see Table 3)

The numbers of fatal accidents in some police force areas are small, and may show large percentage swings from year to year: for example, the number of fatal accidents in Grampian was 51 in 1998, 35 in 1999 and 45 in 2000. Therefore, between 1999 and 2000, one would expect to find increases in the numbers of fatal accidents in some police force areas, and decreases in other areas. In 2000 half of police forces had increases in the number of fatal accidents recorded, while the others had decreases or remained static. Overall, the total for Scotland increased by almost 4%.

Looking at the figures over the longer-term, the number of fatal accidents in Scotland in 2000 was 49% less than the 1981-85 average, and the figures for individual police force areas (with the exception of Northern) were between 34% and 69% less than the 1981-85 average levels. The annual fluctuations in the numbers of fatal accidents in individual areas mean that an area whose figure in 1999 was well below the 1981-85 average level could show a much smaller decrease from the 1981-85 average in 2000, and vice versa.

The number of fatal and serious accidents (added together) in Scotland fell by 199 in 2000. For individual police force areas, the change between 1999 and 2000 varied between a fall of 14% and a rise of 20%. Compared with the 1981-85 average, in 2000 the Scottish total was 56% lower, and all police areas showed substantial reductions, ranging from 35% (Dumfries & Galloway) to 66% (Lothian & Borders).

While the total number of injury accidents (of all severities) in Scotland in 2000 fell by 2%, the changes for individual areas varied from a fall of 12% to a rise of 10%.  Compared with the 1981-85 average, the Scottish total was 26% lower, and all police areas showed reductions, ranging from 16% in Lothian and Borders to 44% in Grampian.

2.2 Accidents by road type and severity (see Table 4)

Table 4 shows figures on the basis of the road network at the time of the accident, and on the basis of the "post- 1 April 1996" network. It also provides percentage changes which have been adjusted (using the method described in Annex E) to take account of the changes to the road networks that were made on 1st April 1996 (as best as one can take account of such changes, from the information which is available).

Trunk roads accounted for only small proportions of the total numbers of accidents in 2000: very roughly, just over a third of fatal accidents, almost a fifth of the total of fatal and serious accidents, and around a seventh of all accidents. The trunk road network’s shares of accident numbers in previous years were broadly similar.

Comparison of the two sets of 1992-95 averages that appear in the table (one set calculated on the basis of the road network at the time, the other calculated on the basis of the road network from 1st April 1996) shows that the changes to the road networks that were made on 1st April 1996 had little effect on the trunk road network’s overall share of the numbers of accidents in Scotland as a whole. (The changes may, of course, have had a much greater effect on the trunk road network’s share in certain parts of Scotland.)

In general, compared with the 1981-85 averages, the numbers of accidents fell more rapidly on local authority roads than on trunk roads - for example, the 2000 figure for accidents of all severities on local authority roads was 28% below the 1981-85 average compared with 18% lower for trunk roads. When considering such comparisons, one must remember that the percentage changes since 1981-85 for different types of road will be affected by the transfer of traffic away from some roads by the opening of city and town bypasses, and by the construction of new roads with higher average traffic volumes. Therefore, such figures do not provide an accurate measure of the comparative change in the road safety performance of different types of road.

2.3 Accident rates (see Table 5)

Accident rates showing the number of accidents per 100 million vehicle kilometres are contained in parts B and C of table 5. These are calculated by dividing the numbers of accidents on each type of road by the estimated volumes of traffic on those roads, which were provided by the Department for Transport, Local Government and the Regions. As there are no reliable traffic estimates of the total volume of traffic on minor roads (B, C and unclassified roads) prior to 1998, accident rates for minor roads are only available for 1998 onwards.

Accident rates on major roads (Motorways and A roads) have fallen markedly over the past ten years. The fatal accident rate has dropped from 1.5 per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 1990 to 0.8 in 2000; the "fatal and serious" accident rate fell from 13.2 to 6.6; and the overall accident rate (all severities) reduced from 44.7 per 100 million vehicle kilometres to 27.4. Motorways had consistently lower accident rates than A roads, and minor roads appear to have generally higher accident rates than major roads. Accident rates tend to be higher for "built-up" roads (roads with speed limits of up to 40mph) than for "non built-up" roads (ones with higher speed limits).

Estimates for the total volume of traffic by police force area are only available for "major" roads. Part C of the table shows that accident rates on major roads vary considerably by police area. Some of this variation may be attributed to the distribution of traffic by road type within individual areas. The accident rates for trunk roads were calculated by dividing the total number of accidents which occurred in 1998 to 2000 on the roads which formed the trunk road network by the total of the estimated volumes of traffic in 1998 to 2000 on the trunk road network. The rates for local authority major roads were calculated in a similar way.

2.4 Accidents by month by road type (see Table 6)

The numbers of injury accidents over the years 1996-2000 were fairly evenly spread throughout the year, with a minor peak in November, which was 15% above the average monthly number of accidents. Fatal and serious accidents (taken together) were similarly well spread across the months, and their minor peak, which occurred in August, was 14% above the monthly average. (To allow more equitable comparisons the months are standardised to 30 days.)

On average, there were 26 fatal accidents per month in the years 1996 to 2000. The number did not vary greatly between the months: the lowest average was 20, and the highest was 31.

2.5 Accidents by light condition (see Table 7)

The severity of accidents is associated with the light conditions, and also with whether the accident occurs on a built-up road or on a non built-up road.  Presumably, because of the higher average speeds on non built-up roads, severity rates are higher on non built-up roads than on built-up roads. And presumably, because of poorer visibility, severity rates are higher in darkness than in daylight. For example, taking the annual averages for 1996-2000, 4.8% of injury road accidents on non built-up roads in darkness (80 out of 1,651) resulted in one (or more) deaths compared with 1.6% of accidents on built-up roads in darkness (45 out of 2,883) and 3.5% of accidents on non built-up roads in daylight (134 out of 3,875). Similarly, the percentage of accidents classified as either fatal or serious is higher for non built-up roads in darkness than for either built-up roads in darkness or non built-up roads in daylight.

3. Motorists, breath testing and drink-driving

3.1 Car driver accident rates (see Table 22)

All car drivers involved in injury accidents are included in this table, whether they were injured or not, on the basis of whatever information is known about their ages and their sex. For example, someone whose sex was known, but whose age was not known, will be included in the "all ages" total for the appropriate sex. The grand total includes those for whom neither the age nor the sex was known.

As the car driver accident rates that are shown for each sex and age group are on a "per head of population" basis, rather than being based upon the numbers of driving licence holders or upon the distance driven, they can provide only a general indication of the relative accident rates for each group. The statistics do not provide a measure of the relative risk of each group as car drivers, because they do not take account of the differing levels of car driving by each group.

Car driver accident rates per head of population vary markedly by age and sex. The peak occurs for males in the 17-22 age group, with a rate of 10.6 per thousand population in 2000. This rate is more than double that for females of the same age (4.4 per thousand in 2000), and is almost double the rate for males aged 30-59 (6.0 per thousand in 2000).

The overall male car driver accident rate in 2000 (6.1 per thousand) was less than in the previous year, and apart from the over 60s, for whom the rate remained the same, this was the case for each age group. The overall female car driver accident rate in 2000 (3.1 per thousand) was the same as in the previous year. There were reductions in the 17-22 and 23-29 age groups, though.

There has been a 50% rise in the female car driver accident rate since 1981-85. In 2000, the car driver accident rate for 17-22 year old females was 48% above the level of the 1981-85 annual average, and the increases for the other age groups were: 53% for women aged 23-29; 54% for 30-59 year old women; and 52% for those aged 60+.

In contrast, the male car driver accident rate has fallen over the same period by 27%, with reductions for all age-groups. Consequently, the ratio of male to female car driver accident rates has fallen from 4.0 : 1 for the 1981-85 annual average to 2.0 : 1 in 2000.

3.2 Breath testing of drivers (see Tables 23, 24 and 25)

These tables cover all motorists who were known to be involved in injury road accidents (the figures do not include, for example, those involved in "hit and run" accidents who were not traced). For these tables, a motorist is defined as the driver or the rider of a motor vehicle, including (e.g.) a motorcyclist. It should be noted that some of the figures for 1985 differ greatly from those for 1986, because in December 1985 the Scottish Police authorities introduced a policy of breath-testing all drivers in an accident, wherever possible.

In 2000, 65% of motorists involved in accidents were asked for a breath test (the percentage varied among the police forces, from about 54% to around 89%). The breath test proved positive (or the motorist refused to take the test) in 3.3% of those drivers breathalysed. This represented 2.1% of the total number of motorists involved (including those who were not asked for a breath test). While these percentages have not changed much in the past five years, over the longer-term there appears to have been a reduction in both the numbers and the proportion of "drink drivers": the number of "positive / refused breath test" cases fell from 1,118 in 1986 to 526 in 2000, and from 3.8% to 2.1% as a percentage of all motorists involved in accidents.

Tables 24 and 25 show the figures for each time of day on different days of the week, and for a number of years. In 2000, 46% of the "positive / refused" cases occurred between 9 p.m. and 3 a.m. Between midnight and 6 a.m., the number of "positive / refused" cases, expressed as a percentage of motorists involved in accidents, varied from about 6% to around 28%, depending upon the day of the week, and was much higher than at other times of the day. The period from 9 p.m. to midnight had the second highest number of "positive / refused" cases, but the equivalent percentage was not as high (varying between about 4% and 8%), because between 9 p.m. and midnight there were many more accidents than between midnight and 3 a.m.

3.3 Drink-drive accidents and casualties (see Table 26)

Table 26 shows the estimates (made by the Department of Transport, Local Government and the Regions) of the numbers of injury road accidents involving illegal alcohol levels. They are higher than the number of drivers with positive breath test results (or who refused to take the breath test) because they include allowances for the numbers of cases where drivers were not breath tested because of the severity of their injuries, or because they left the scene of the accident. Information about the blood alcohol levels of road users who died within 12 hours of being injured in a road accident is supplied by the Procurators Fiscal.

The estimates show that the numbers of drink-drive accidents and casualties both fell by 37% between 1989 and 1999 (the latest year for which estimates are available): from 1,190 to 750 (accidents) and from 1,750 to 1,110 (casualties). The number of people killed as a result of drink-drive accidents is estimated to have fallen from about 80 in 1989 to around 60 in 1999, and the number of serious casualties is estimated to have dropped by almost a half (from roughly 480 in 1989 to some 250 in 1999).

4. Casualties

4.1 Casualties by type of road (see Table 27)

In 2000, "non built-up" roads accounted for two-fifths of the total number of casualties (40%: 8,253 out of 20,451). However, presumably because average speeds are higher on non built-up roads than elsewhere, they accounted for over two-thirds of fatal injuries (70%: 229 out of 325) and for over half of the total number of fatal and serious injuries combined (52%: 2,001 out of 3,880).

Compared with the 1981-85 average, the fall in the total number of casualties has been greater for built-up roads (30%) than elsewhere (16%), and the difference between the two types of road is even greater for the numbers fatally injured (down by 65% for built-up roads compared with 37% elsewhere). However, over the years, some traffic will have been transferred away from built-up roads by the opening of city and town bypasses, and by the construction of non built-up roads with higher average traffic volumes. Therefore, these figures do not provide an accurate measure of the comparative change in the road safety performance of "built-up" and "non built-up" roads.

4.2 Casualties by mode of transport (see Table 27)

A total of 12,618 car users were injured in road accidents in 2000, representing 62% of all casualties. Of these car users, 182 died. There were 3,595 pedestrian casualties (18% of the total), of whom 72 died, and 879 pedal cycle casualties (4% of the total), of whom 12 died. Because of the numbers of car user, pedestrian and pedal cyclist casualties, the figures for each of these three groups of road users are the subject of separate sections (4.3, 4.4 and 4.5). There is also a section on child casualties (4.6), which gives details of their modes of transport.  

Together, all the modes of transport other than the three mentioned above accounted for 16% of casualties in 2000, and for broadly similar percentages of the numbers of fatalities and serious injuries. In the last three years whilst pedal cycle casualties have fallen, motor cycle casualties have increased and there were more motor cycle casualties (1,126 in 2000) than pedal cycle casualties (879). Far more motor cyclists than pedal cyclists suffered fatal or serious injuries (472, of whom 40 died), presumably due to higher average speeds. However, the number of motor cycle casualties in 2000 represented 33% of the 1981-85 average: this 67% reduction in casualty numbers was considerably greater than that for other modes of transport.

A total of 926 bus and coach users were injured in 2000, of whom 78 suffered serious injuries (none died) - these low proportions presumably being due to the greater protection of their passengers by buses and coaches.

4.3 Car user casualties

A total of 12,618 car users were injured in road accidents in 2000, representing 62% of all casualties. Of these people, a total of 1,973 were either fatally or seriously injured, 182 of whom died. Non built-up roads accounted for a little over half of all car user casualties (53%: 6,669 out of 12,618). Presumably because average speeds are higher on non-built up roads, they accounted for much higher percentages of the total numbers of car users who were fatally injured (84%: 152 out of 182) or were fatally or seriously injured (74%: 1,452 out of 1,973). (See Table 27)

Although the number of car user fatalities in 2000 was 8% more than the 1999 figure, the number who were fatally or seriously injured fell by 1% and in the total number of casualties of all severities was down by 2%. While the numbers of fatalities and of those who were fatally or seriously injured were well below the 1981-85 average level (down by 35% and 46% respectively), the total number of casualties (of all severities) was actually 2% above the 1981-85 average. This meant that car users were one of the few groups for whom the total number of casualties in 2000 was higher than the average 1981-85 level. (See Table 27)

The fatal and serious casualty rate for 16-22 year old car users in 2000 was 0.97 per thousand population. This was much higher than the rate for car users aged 23-59, which was 0.43 per thousand. Looking at annual averages over the years 1996-2000, for 16-22 year old car users the fatality rate (0.11 per thousand population) and the combined fatal and serious rate (1.23 per thousand population) were both much higher than the corresponding rates for every other age group. (See Tables 28 and 36)

On average, over the years 1996-2000, three-quarters of car user fatalities occurred on roads with a speed limit of 60mph. Such roads accounted for about three-fifths of those car users who were fatally or seriously injured, but for less than half of the total number of car user casualties (of all severities). (See Table 37)

Adult car users

On weekdays, the peak time for adult car user casualties was from 4pm to 6pm. The 5pm to 6pm average of 761 (the annual average for the years 1996-2000) was 17% higher than the average of 650 in the morning 8am to 9am peak. (See Table 32)

Adult car user casualties varied by month, with fewer in the first half of the year and more towards the end of the year. The peak month was November, which had 33% more adult car user casualties than the lowest month, March (annual averages over the years 1996-2000; months standardised to 30 days). (See Table 33)

Friday had the peak numbers of adult car user casualties over the years 1996-2000 with 13% more than the average daily number of adult car user casualties. (See Table 34)

4.4 Pedestrian casualties

There were 3,595 pedestrian casualties in 2000: 18% of all casualties. Of these, 995 were fatally or seriously injured (72 died). Presumably because of the greater vulnerability of pedestrians, a higher proportion (more than a quarter) of the total number of people who were fatally or seriously injured were pedestrians. In addition, 28% of pedestrian casualties were fatally or seriously injured (995 out of 3,595) compared with 19% of all casualties (3,880 out of 20,451). About 95% of pedestrian casualties occurred on built-up roads (3,427 out of 3,595). Perhaps because of higher average speeds on non built-up roads, 51% of the pedestrian casualties on such roads were serious injuries or fatalities (86 out of 168) compared with 27% on built-up roads (909 out of 3,427). (See Table 27)

The number of pedestrian casualties in 2000 was 4% less than in 1999, and 45% below the 1981-85 average. The numbers of pedestrian fatalities and serious injuries in 2000 were both around two thirds less than the 1981-85 average levels. (See Table 27)

For the period 1996 to 2000, the pedestrian fatality rate was higher for those aged 70+ (0.05 per thousand population) than for any other age-group. However, the 12-15 age-group had the highest ‘fatal and serious’ and ‘all severities’ casualty rates (0.57 and 2.16 per thousand population, respectively). The corresponding casualty rates for the 5-11 age-group were only slightly lower. (See Table 36)

The overall pedestrian ‘all severities’ casualty rate for males was 0.97 per thousand population, compared with 0.59 per thousand for females, for the period 1996 to 2000. (See Table 38)

Adult pedestrian casualties

In the period 1996 to 2000, on weekdays, the peak time for adult pedestrian casualties was from 4pm to 6pm; at weekends it was from midnight to 2am. (See Table 32)

December was the peak month for adult pedestrian casualties, with 47% more than the monthly average. Adult pedestrian casualties in the four "winter" months, November to February, were 27% more than the monthly average (annual averages over the years 1996-2000; months standardised to 30 days). (See Table 33)

Friday has the highest number of adult pedestrian casualties; 24% more than the daily average for the period 1996 to 2000. (See Table 34)

In 2000, 6% of adult pedestrian casualties were recorded as crossing the road within 50 metres of a pedestrian crossing, 1% were within the "zig-zag" around the crossing, and 7% were recorded as being on a pedestrian crossing. (See Table 39)

4.5 Pedal Cycle Casualties

There were 879 pedal cycle casualties in 2000, 14% fewer than the previous year and 45% less than the 1981-85 average. The combined total of fatal and serious pedal cycle casualties in 2000 was 175, 7% less than in 1999 and 62% less than the 1981-85 average. There were 12 pedal cycle fatalities in 2000, four more than in 1999, but 6 less than the 1981-85 average.  (See Table 27)

89% of pedal cycle casualties in 2000 were on built-up roads.  (See Table 27)

For the period 1996 to 2000, the pedal cycle casualty rate per head of population was highest for those aged 12-15 (0.66 per thousand population). The other age groups with above-average casualty rates were: 5-11, 16-22 and 23-29. Of course, it must be remembered that, as noted earlier, "per capita" casualty rates do not provide a measure of the relative risk, because they do not take account of the levels of usage of (in this case) pedal cycles. (See Table 36)

Adult pedal cycle casualties

In the period 1996 to 2000, on weekdays, the peak numbers of adult pedal cycle casualties were from 4pm to 6pm and from 8am to 9am. At weekends the numbers were smaller, and there was no clear peak. (See Table 32)

The peak month of the year for adult pedal cycle casualties was August, which was 42% more than the monthly average (1996-2000 annual averages, standardised to 30 days). (See Table 33)

The day of week with the peak number of adult pedal cycle casualties was Wednesday, 26% higher than the daily average, over the years 1996-2000. There were substantially fewer adult pedal cycle casualties on Saturday and Sunday, with 33% and 45% less than the daily average respectively. (See Table 34)

4.6 Child casualties

There were 2,998 child casualties in 2000, representing over a seventh of the total number of casualties of all ages (15%: 2,998 out of 20,451). Of the child casualties, 561 were fatalities or serious injuries, of whom 21 died. The number of child fatalities was four lower than in 1999. All of these numbers were considerably below the 1981-85 average levels: the number of children killed on the roads in 2000 was 70% less than the 1981-85 annual average, and there were falls of 63% in the number of fatal and serious injuries (combined) and of 39% in the total number of child casualties (of all severities). (See Table 29)

In the period 1996 to 2000, on weekdays, the peak time for child casualties was from 3pm to 5pm, with 28% of all weekday casualties in those two hours. A further 29% occurred in the three hours between 5pm and 8pm. There was a smaller peak in the morning, between 8am and 9am. There was no real clear peak at weekends: the numbers of casualties were very broadly the same each hour from 1pm to 5pm. (See Table 31)

August was the peak month for child casualties, with 25% more than in an average month. May had 13%, more than an average month, and July 10% more (1996-2000 annual averages, standardised to 30 days). (See Table 33)

Friday was the peak day of the week for child casualties, with 23% more than an average day in the period 1996 to 2000. Sunday had 18% fewer than an average day. (See Table 34)

Child casualties by mode of transport

In 2000, there were 1,485 child pedestrian casualties. They accounted for 41% of all pedestrian casualties of all ages (1,485 out of 3,595). Of the child pedestrian casualties, 379 were fatalities or serious injuries (13 died). All these figures were considerably below the corresponding 1981-85 averages, with falls of 71% (fatalities), 63% (fatalities and serious injuries combined) and 48% (all child pedestrian casualties). (See Table 29)

There were 330 child pedal cycle casualties in 2000 (38% of the total of 879 pedal cycle casualties of all ages), 56% below the 1981-85 average. The child pedal cycle casualties included 65 fatalities and serious injuries, of whom 4 died. (See Table 29)

In 2000, there were 964 child casualties in cars, 8% of the total number of car user casualties of all ages (964 out of 12,618). Of the child casualties in cars, 94 were fatalities or serious injuries (4 died). While the number of child car user fatal and serious injuries was 47% below the 1981-85 average levels, the total number of child car user casualties (of all severities) in 2000 was 8% above the 1981-85 average. (See Table 29)

Child casualty rates (per head of population)

Children’s casualty rates (per head of population) increase with age: for children aged 0-4 the rate was 1.74 per thousand population for the period 1996 to 2000, whereas it was 3.86 per thousand for those aged 5-11 and for the 12-15 age group it was 4.62 per thousand. The pedestrian casualty rate for younger children (0-4 years) was only about a third of those for 5-11 and 12-15 year olds. (See Table 36)

The pedestrian casualty rate for boys in the 5-11 age group was almost twice that for girls, but for 12-15 year olds the gap was less marked. The difference between the sexes was even more pronounced in the case of the "driver or rider" casualty rates, particularly for the 12-15 age group. (See Table 38)

Child pedestrian casualty rates in 2000 for fatal and serious injuries (combined) and for all severities, at 0.38 and 1.48 per thousand child population respectively, were roughly double the corresponding rates for pedestrian casualties of all ages. (See Table 28)

5. Comparisons of Scottish figures against those of other countries

5.1 Casualty rates: against England & Wales (see Tables A to D on the pages which follow)

Historically, the "fatal" and "fatal and serious (combined)" casualty rates per head of population in Scotland have been above those for England & Wales, whereas the "all severities" casualty rate has been lower in Scotland than in England & Wales. Using the averages for the years 1996-2000, Scotland’s casualty rates were 14% higher (fatal), 7% higher (fatal and serious) and 27% lower (all severities). In all three cases, this represented an improvement in the position in Scotland relative to that in England & Wales compared with the position in 1981-85.

For years, the Scottish child casualty rates per head of population have been higher than those of England & Wales for "fatal" and "fatal and serious (combined)" and slightly lower for "all severities". Thus, using the 1996-2000 averages, the Scottish rates were 36% higher (fatal), 33% higher (fatal and serious) and 7% lower (all severities). This represented a slight worsening in Scotland’s "fatal" figures relative to England & Wales compared with the 1981-85 average, and an improvement for the "fatal and serious" and "all severities" rates.

The casualty rates of car users in Scotland have for many years been substantially higher than those of England & Wales for fatal and "fatal and serious" severities, while for all severities the rate has been much lower. In 2000, Scotland’s car user fatality rate was 29% higher than that of England & Wales, the "fatal and serious" (combined) rate was 17% higher, while the all severity car user rate was 31% lower. For child car users, the fatal casualty rate in Scotland was 5% lower than that of England & Wales, the combined "fatal and serious" rate was 12% higher, and the "all severities" child car user casualty rate was 24% less.

In 2000, the pedestrian fatality rate per capita was 5% lower in Scotland than that for England & Wales, the "fatal and serious (combined)" rate in Scotland was 21% higher and the "all severities" rate was 3% lower. The child pedestrian casualty rates in Scotland were much higher than those for England & Wales: 47% higher (fatalities), 42% higher (fatal and serious combined) and 8% higher (all severities).

The casualty rates for pedal cyclists of all ages in Scotland were substantially lower than in England & Wales in 2000 for both fatal and serious (combined) (30% lower); and for all severities (54% lower). The child pedal cycle casualty "all severities" rate was also lower in Scotland than in England & Wales. These differences may reflect the fact that, according to the National Travel Survey, on average, people in Scotland do not travel as far by bicycle as people in England and Wales.

5.2 Road deaths : international comparison 1999 (see Tables E and F)

This section compares Scotland’s road death rates in 1999 with the fatality rates of some countries in Western Europe and some developed countries world-wide. The comparisons involve a total of 29 countries (including Scotland, and counting England and Wales as one country) and also figures for the European Community as a whole. The fatality rates were calculated on a "per capita" basis (the statistics given are rates per million population), and the countries were then listed in order of their fatality rates in Table E sections (a), (b) and (c). Section (d) of the table ranks countries by a set of car user fatality rates which were calculated on a "per motor vehicle" basis (the statistics given are rates per million motor vehicles).

In accordance with the commonly agreed international definition, most countries define a fatality as being due to a road accident if death occurs within 30 days of the accident. However, the official road accident statistics of some countries limit the fatalities to those occurring within shorter periods after the accident. Numbers of deaths and death rates in Table E have been adjusted according to the factors used by the Economic Commission for Europe and the European Conference of Ministers of Transport to represent standardised 30-day deaths: Italy (7 days) + 8%; France (6 days) + 5.7%; Portugal (1 day) +14%; Republic of Korea (3 days) +15%.

In 1999, Scotland’s overall road death rate of 61 per million population was the second lowest of the 29 countries surveyed, and was only 55% of the EC average (which was 111 per million population). Only England & Wales had a fatality rate which was lower than Scotland’s.

However, Scotland’s overall road safety position does not appear as good when the fatality rates of pedestrians are considered separately. In 1999, Scotland’s pedestrian fatality rate was 17 per million population, the same as New Zealand and the EC average. Scotland ranked sixteenth of the 29 countries surveyed (but was not far behind seven other countries which had fatality rates of 15 or 16 per million population).

When the car user fatality rate is calculated on a per capita basis, Scotland has a low car user fatality rate (the third lowest). However, it may be argued that the car user fatality rate should be calculated on "per motor vehicle" basis, in order to try to approximate better the differing levels of car use in different countries, and hence reflect differences between countries in car drivers’ "exposure to risk". (Rates based on the amount of car traffic in each country would be even better, but the data required to calculate them are not available for some countries.) When car user fatality rates are calculated on a "per motor vehicle" basis, Scotland’s car user fatality rate of 78 per million motor vehicles was the fifth best out of the 29 countries surveyed. The rate for England and Wales was 58 per million motor vehicles, and the EC average was 111.

The fatality rates per head of population for 28 countries (including Scotland) are shown, for each of four broad age-groups, in Table F. (In this table, there are figures for the United Kingdom, but no separate figures for "England and Wales" and "Northern Ireland"; also there are no figures for the EC as a whole.) In most cases, Scotland has one of the lowest rates per capita. The Scottish rate is the sixth lowest for child casualties aged 0-14, the fifth lowest for those aged 15-24, the second lowest for those aged 25-64 and the lowest for those aged 65+.