ROAD ACCIDENTS SCOTLAND 2000

Introduction

This publication presents statistics, for 2000 and earlier years, of the numbers of injury road accidents (that is, road accidents in which one or more people are injured or killed) which were recorded by the police in Scotland. Annex B describes the method of collection of the statistics. Each accident is classified according to the severity of the injury to the most seriously injured casualty who was involved in the accident.

Following this Introduction, this publication has several parts. The Summary section show the main trends in the numbers of road accidents and casualties up to the most recent year for which statistics are available. The Commentary includes descriptions of the trends in the numbers of road accidents and casualties, more detailed analyses (of the numbers of accidents, of the statistics about motorists, and of the numbers of casualties) and comparisons of the Scottish figures with those of some other countries. The next part provides information on the casualty reduction targets for 2010. This is followed by the charts and statistical tables. The final part includes a number of annexes, such as a calendar of events affecting road traffic, notes on the collection of road accident statistics, the definitions of various terms, and information about the changes to the trunk road network. There is also an Index, and information about some other Scottish Executive publications.

The status of the statistics

The data from which the statistics in this publication were compiled were extracted from the Road Accidents statistical database towards the middle of August 2001. The statistics given here may therefore differ slightly from those published elsewhere (such as in the statistical bulletin "Key Road Accident Statistics") because they were extracted on a different date, and the database may have changed between the two dates due to (eg) late returns, or due to late corrections being made to returns which had been received earlier. For similar reasons, the statistics given in this publication for 1999 and earlier years may differ slightly from the previously-published figures for those years.

The information held in the Scottish Executive's Road Accident Statistics database was collected by the police following each accident, and subsequently reported to the Executive. The statistics produced from the Scottish Executive's database may differ from the figures which the relevant local authorities would provide, because the statistical data held by the Scottish Executive do not take account of any changes or corrections that local authorities may have made, for use at local level, to their copies of the statistical information. For example, local authorities may have corrected, in their copies of the data, the information about the location of some accidents, based upon their knowledge of the roads and areas concerned. In some cases, they may have concluded that an accident occurred in a different local authority area from that which was shown in the statistical return which was made to the Scottish Executive. Therefore, the numbers of accidents and casualties published here for some local authorities may differ from the figures that the local authorities themselves would use.

The years covered in the tables

Some tables have figures for several individual years (eg for each year from 1996 to 2000) so that any trends in the key statistics can be seen. However, the more detailed tables provide figures only in the form of 5-year annual averages (for the years 1996-2000), and do not give figures for the latest single year. If readers need versions of the detailed tables for single years, they can be provided on request (a charge may be made).

Some of the detailed tables in some earlier editions of the publication have not been repeated since, in most cases, the statistics do not vary significantly between years. A list of statistics covered in more detail in previous editions can be found at the end of the Index. It is not known whether any of these tables will be updated in subsequent editions. Readers may request updated versions of such tables (for which a charge may be made).

Some of the tables giving the numbers of drivers who were breath-tested have figures for 1985 and 1986, then a gap of several years, and then figures for the latest few years. The years 1985 and 1986 were included in these tables because, in December 1985, the Scottish Police authorities introduced a policy of breath testing all drivers involved in an accident, wherever possible.

The Government’s target for reducing Road Accident casualties by the year 2000: comparisons with the annual averages for 1981-85

In many of the tables, the figures for 2000, or the annual averages for 1996 to 2000, are compared with the annual averages for 1981-85. This is done because, in 1987, the Government adopted the target of reducing the number of road casualties by one third from the 1981-85 average level by the year 2000. This edition of 'Road Accidents Scotland' therefore shows whether or not this target was achieved. One way that progress towards this target was assessed was to compare actual casualties in each year after 1987 with an indicative line starting at the actual number of casualties in 1987 (the year of adopting the target), and assuming a constant percentage reduction in each subsequent year, down to the target figure for the year 2000.

This "target line" was not a straight line, because each year’s fall was calculated by applying a constant percentage reduction to the target line’s number of casualties in the previous year (which reduced each year). The total number of casualties in the year 2000 would be two-thirds of the 1981-85 average level if there were a constant reduction of about 2.38% (compound) each year after 1987. The calculation of the 2.38% was follows:

1981-85 average total number of casualties	27,142
1987 total number of casualties	24,748
Target for year 2000 (two-thirds of 1981-85 average)	18,095
percentage of number in 1987	73.1%
percentage reduction required from 1987 to 2000	26.9%
Implied annual percentage reduction in each of 13 years	2.38%	(compound)

Repeating this calculation for different types of casualty gave different annual percentage reductions. This is because, in each case, the 1987 actual figure, which is the "starting position" for the line, represented a different percentage of the 1981-85 average level. It follows that one needs a different value for each type of casualty for the constant compound percentage reduction each year after 1987 in order for its year 2000 figure to be two-thirds of the 1981-85 average level for that type of casualty. Such target lines are shown in the charts in figure 3 in the Commentary.

Road casualty reduction targets for 2010

In March 2000, the UK government, the Scottish Executive and the National Assembly for Wales announced a new road safety strategy and casualty reduction targets for 2010. These are described in a new section after the commentary. Figures for the 'baseline' period for the 2010 targets will appear in many of the tables in the next edition of 'Road Accidents Scotland'.

Estimates of the total volume of road traffic

Some of the tables include figures for the total volume of traffic, or give accident rates which were calculated using such figures. The traffic figures were provided by the Department of Transport, Local Government and the Regions (DTLR), which produces estimates of the total volume of road traffic for Scotland and for other parts of Great Britain. Information about these estimates is given in Chapter 6 of 'Scottish Transport Statistics No. 20, 2001 Edition'.

Main changes in this edition:

A new section on the casualty reduction targets for 2010 has been included after the commentary. This contains some information and statistics on monitoring the progress towards these targets, plus a selection of key points. It contains charts and tables for each of the three targets showing the main trends in the casualty numbers in comparison to the 1994-98 baseline average.

A new table has been included at the end of the Summary. It gives the numbers of accidents and casualties, by severity, for each Police Force and Council area.

Table 1 has an additional column, showing the estimated total volume of traffic on all roads.

Tables 19 and 43 have had the groups 'over 50 up to 100km' and 'over 100 km' combined into 'over 50km'.

Annex B of the previous edition included the list of changes to the 'STATS 19 system, which were implemented in 1999, and tables giving the frequency of use of each code of the new and modified variables. Such material does not appear in this edition.