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Statistical Bulletin CrJ/2001/1
Reconvictions of Offenders discharged from Custody
or given Non-Custodial Sentences in 1995, Scotland

9. The Effect of "pseudo-reconvictions"

9.1 As noted in section 4.3, pseudo reconvictions are defined to be convictions which occur after the relevant date of the index conviction but which relate to offence(s) committed prior to that date. This can arise in cases where there may be several sets of proceedings in train against an individual for offences committed on a range of dates. Pseudo reconvictions will therefore exaggerate the rate of "real" reconvictions to some extent. They will also complicate comparisons between reconviction rates for different types of disposal as they will tend to have less impact on the reconviction rates for offenders who are discharged from a custodial sentence relative to those given non-custodial sentences. Pseudo reconvictions will also tend to be more significant when considering reconviction rates for groups of offenders with a relatively high frequency of offending, such as younger offenders or those engaged in particular kinds of crime. Unless otherwise specified, all of the reconviction rates quoted in this bulletin include pseudo reconvictions. This should therefore be borne in mind when making comparisons between the rates for different types of disposal and offender.

9.2 Since the Scottish Offenders Index does not contain information on the date of offence, the number of pseudo reconvictions remains an unknown quantity. However, it is possible to investigate their effect by making use of the fact that, in the period currently covered by the data on the Scottish Offenders Index, the police case reference numbers for most crimes which were recorded in Strathclyde Police Force Area contain the month and year that the crime was recorded. On the assumption that in the majority of cases this will be close to the date the actual crime was committed, this information can be used to derive a proxy for the date of the offence(s). Reconvictions can then be classified as pseudo if this proxy for offence date (taken as the first of the month) is before the relevant date of the index conviction.

9.3 There were 26,347 offenders with an index conviction in 1995 for whom an offence date could be derived in the way described above. The profile of this subset of offenders, by sex, age, index disposal, index crime and number of previous convictions, is generally very similar to all offenders with an index conviction in 1995. The Strathclyde group has a slightly higher proportion of offenders who were discharged from a custodial sentence in 1995 and for breach of the peace as their index crime. However, these marginal differences are not judged to bias this approach to estimating for the effect of pseudo reconvictions.

9.4 Based on the Strathclyde data, it appears that a quarter of offenders had a subsequent conviction within two years relating to an offence committed prior to the relevant date of the index conviction (or release from custody). However, around three-quarters of these offenders also had "real" reconvictions, ie in respect of offences committed after the relevant date of their index conviction. The overall reconviction rate was 46 per cent, but ignoring pseudo reconvictions this reduces to 36 per cent, giving an average estimated effect of 10 percentage points after two years. The estimated effect of pseudo reconvictions can be thought of as the proportion of all offenders whose only reconvictions are for crimes committed prior to the relevant date of their index conviction. Chart 2 illustrates the effect over 4 years. As might be expected, the initial effect of pseudo reconvictions is fairly large, but decreases over time.

9.5 As conviction rates vary with type of crime, age and other factors so might the effect of pseudo reconvictions. In general, those groups of offenders who tend to have high rates of offending also have higher rates of pseudo reconvictions, though the effect of these will often be offset by higher rates of "real" reconviction. For example, although 34 per cent of offenders aged under 21 had at least one pseudo reconviction within two years, the estimated effect of pseudo reconvictions for this age group was virtually the same as for those aged 21-30, where only a quarter had a pseudo reconviction.

9.6 The estimated effect of pseudo reconvictions on the reconviction rates for those discharged from a custodial sentence is estimated to be lower than for offenders whose index conviction involved a community service or probation disposal. This will partly reflect the fact that the follow up time for reconvictions for the former group is taken from their estimated date of release from custody rather than the date they were originally sentenced to custody. Offenders released from custody, particularly those who have served relatively long sentences, might be expected to have fewer subsequent pseudo reconvictions.

9.7 The estimated effect of pseudo reconvictions ranged from two percentage points for those whose index crime in 1995 was a sexual crime to 11 percentage points with an index crime of dishonesty or breach of the peace.

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