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Statistical Bulletin CrJ/2001/1
Reconvictions of Offenders discharged from Custody
or given Non-Custodial Sentences in 1995, Scotland

6. Young Offenders — a cohort analysis

Cohort analysis
6.1 Analysis of a group of young offenders in the same age group allows consideration of other factors that may be related to reconviction. For this purpose, all offenders who were aged 18 and sentenced in 1995 were chosen as an initial cohort to analyse. This is a useful group to choose as they were at peak age for convictions in about the middle of the time period currently covered by the SOI. There were 3,522 18 year olds sentenced in 1995, who were involved in 5,313 convictions in 1995 and 21,551 convictions overall within the scope of the SOI. Some characteristics of the group are given in the box below.

6.2 Some 60 per cent of the cohort was reconvicted within two years. Those with previous convictions were more likely to be reconvicted than those who with no previous convictions, 76 per cent and 42 per cent respectively. It is striking that of those given a custodial sentence and who had previous convictions, 89 per cent were reconvicted within two years of release. Also interesting is the comparison between probation and community service. It can be seen that for offenders with no previous convictions, 44 per cent of those given community service were reconvicted within two years compared with 69 per cent of those given probation. For offenders with one or more previous convictions, reconviction rates for those given community service and probation were more similar.

Age at first conviction
6.3 When considering the age at which offenders in this cohort were first convicted, one pattern that emerges is that the younger a person was at the time of their first conviction, the more likely they are to be reconvicted. Considering males only, 71 of the total of 3,150 offenders in the cohort were first convicted when aged under 16. (As noted in section 3.3, these convictions will generally have involved the more serious type of offence.) Of this small group, 87 per cent were reconvicted within two years of their index conviction at age 18 in 1995. The corresponding reconviction rates for those aged 16 and 17 when first convicted were 82 per cent and 73 per cent respectively.

6.4 As well as being more likely to be reconvicted, those who were younger when first convicted tended to be reconvicted more often. For offenders who were reconvicted at least once within two years of their index conviction in 1995, the average number of reconvictions in this period was 3.6 for those first convicted aged 16 or less, dropping to 3.3 for those first convicted aged 17 and to 2.3 for those first convicted when aged 18.

Comparison of cohorts
6.5 A comparison of the cohort of 18 year olds sentenced in 1995 with the corresponding cohorts from 1989, 1991 and 1993 allows for possible changes in reconviction patterns over time for this age group to be investigated, as well as for a validation of conclusions from the 1995 cohort. The overall reconviction rates for the four cohorts were found to be very similar. The total numbers of convicted offenders in the age group decreased over time, thought to be in part due to the fall in the overall population aged 18 over this period. Males comprised around 90 per cent of all convicted offenders aged 18 in each cohort. The number of 18 year old males convicted as a proportion of all 18 year old males in the population fell slightly over the period, from 11.8 per cent in the 1989 cohort to 10.5 per cent in the 1995 cohort. The corresponding proportion of females remained fairly static, at just over 1 per cent.

(1) Number of offenders as a percentage of the GROS mid-year population estimate for 18 year olds in the relevant year.
(2) Average for offenders who had at least one reconviction within two years.

6.6 It can be seen that sentencing patterns have changed slightly, with relatively fewer 18 year olds being fined and more being given community sentences and custody. This is consistent with the general trend in sentencing patterns recorded over the period, and is thought in part to reflect increased availability of alternatives to prosecution and also the more widespread provision of community service schemes. Some trends may merit further research investigation. For example, the proportion of convicted 18 year olds given community service increased from 4.3 per cent in the 1989 cohort to 7.1 per cent in the 1995 cohort, with the 2-year reconviction rate for this group decreasing from 79 per cent to 68 per cent.

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