Statistical Bulletin CrJ/2001/1 : page 3


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Statistical Bulletin CrJ/2001/1
Reconvictions of Offenders discharged from Custody
or given Non-Custodial Sentences in 1995, Scotland

5. General Analysis of Reconviction Rates

5.1 The analysis presented in this section relates to a total of 54,712 individual offenders for whom convictions data are recorded on the Scottish Offenders Index and who were either discharged from a custodial sentence in 1995 (6,394 offenders) or who received a non-custodial sentence (48,318 offenders) in 1995. Of this group of offenders, 86 per cent were male; 25 per cent were aged under 21; 23 per cent had a violent crime and 34 per cent a crime of dishonesty as their index crime; 40 per cent had no previous convictions while 8 per cent had over 10; and 83 per cent had no previous convictions resulting in a custodial sentence while 2 per cent had over 10.

5.2 Of the 54,712 offenders with an index conviction in 1995, 33 per cent were reconvicted within one year, 45 per cent within two years, 51 per cent within three years and 54 per cent within four years. The proportion of offenders who received a custodial reconviction was 10 per cent within one year rising to 18 per cent after 4 years.

5.3 Male offenders were more likely to be reconvicted than females, for example 47 per cent of males were reconvicted within two years compared to 34 per cent of females. This difference applied across all age groups, though for those reconvicted within two years there was little difference in the average number of reconvictions acquired. Reconviction rates for male offenders decreased by age, with 60 per cent of those aged under 21 reconvicted within two years compared with 35 per cent of those aged over 30. Reconviction rates for female offenders varied less by age, though those aged over 30 were slightly less likely to be reconvicted than those in younger age groups.

Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 1995
Percentage reconvicted within 1 to 4 years, by sex and age

Table 1

Sex by Age	Total number (=100%)	Percentage reconvicted within:				Percentage with a custodial reconviction within:
Sex by Age	Total number (=100%)	1 year	2 years	3 years	4 years	1 year	2 years	3 years	4 years

Persons	54,712	33	45	51	54	10	14	17	18
Age under 21	13,913	44	57	64	67	12	18	22	24
Age 21-25	13,672	35	48	54	58	11	16	19	21
Age 26-30	9,627	31	44	50	53	10	15	18	19
Age over 30	17,500	24	33	39	42	6	9	11	12

Males	47,023	35	47	53	56	11	16	18	20
Age under 21	12,335	46	60	66	69	14	20	24	26
Age 21-25	11,884	36	49	56	60	12	18	21	22
Age 26-30	8,180	32	45	51	55	11	16	19	21
Age over 30	14,624	25	35	40	43	7	10	12	13

Females	7,689	25	34	38	41	4	5	7	7
Age under 21	1,578	29	38	44	47	3	8	9	10
Age 21-25	1,788	28	37	41	45	6	6	8	8
Age 26-30	1,447	26	36	42	46	4	4	5	5
Age over 30	2,876	20	28	32	34	3	5	7	7

Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 1995
Percentage reconvicted within two years, by sex, age and number of reconvictions

Table 2

Sex by Age	Total number (=100%)	Percentage with following number of reconvictions within 2 years:				Average number of reconvictions⁽¹⁾	Average number of custodial reconvictions⁽¹⁾

		None	1 or 2	3-10	Over 10

Persons	54,712	55	29	15	1	2.6	0.7
Age under 21	13,913	43	32	24	1	3.1	0.8
Age 21-25	13,672	52	32	16	*	2.4	0.8
Age 26-30	9,627	57	30	13	*	2.4	0.7
Age over 30	17,500	67	24	8	*	2.3	0.6

Males	47,023	53	30	16	1	2.6	0.8
Age under 21	12,335	40	33	25	1	3.1	0.8
Age 21-25	11,884	51	33	16	*	2.4	0.8
Age 26-30	8,180	55	31	13	*	2.3	0.8
Age over 30	14,624	65	25	9	1	2.3	0.6

Females	7,689	66	22	10	1	2.6	0.4
Age under 21	1,578	62	24	13	1	2.8	0.3
Age 21-25	1,788	63	22	13	1	2.9	0.5
Age 26-30	1,447	64	24	12	1	2.6	0.4
Age over 30	2,876	72	21	7	*	2.3	0.3

(1) Average for offenders who had at least one reconviction within two years.

5.4 The likelihood of reconviction increased markedly with the number of previous convictions held by the offender at the time of their index conviction. For example, 25 per cent of offenders with no previous convictions were reconvicted within two years compared with 85 per cent of offenders with over 10 previous convictions. The proportion of offenders who received a conviction resulting in a custodial sentence within two years was 4 per cent for those with no previous convictions at the time of their index conviction but was 58 per cent for those with over 10 previous convictions.

Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 1995
Percentage reconvicted within 1 to 4 years, by number and type of previous convictions

Table 3

Number and type of previous convictions	Total number (=100%)	Percentage reconvicted within:				Percentage with a custodial reconviction within:
Number and type of previous convictions	Total number (=100%)	1 year	2 years	3 years	4 years	1 year	2 years	3 years	4 years

All offenders	54,712	33	45	51	54	10	14	17	18
Number of previous convictions:
None	21,782	17	25	30	33	2	4	5	5
1 or 2	14,732	30	43	50	54	5	8	10	12
3 to 10	13,842	49	65	73	77	16	24	28	31
Over 10	4,356	73	85	90	92	45	58	64	67
Number of previous custodial convictions:
None	45,666	28	39	45	48	4	7	9	11
1 or 2	4,378	52	68	75	79	24	35	41	45
3 to 10	3,802	67	82	87	89	45	59	65	68
Over 10	866	83	91	94	95	68	79	84	86
Number of previous community convictions⁽¹⁾:
None	43,610	27	38	44	47	5	8	10	12
1 or 2	8,384	55	70	77	80	23	32	37	40
3 to 10	2,665	69	83	88	90	39	52	58	61
Over 10	53	79	92	92	92	53	72	77	77

(1) Convictions resulting in community service or probation.

Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 1995
Percentage reconvicted within two years, by number and type of previous convictions and number of reconvictions

Table 4

Number and type of previous convictions	Total number (=100%)	Percentage with following number of reconvictions within 2 years:				Average number of reconvictions⁽²⁾	Average number of custodial reconvictions⁽²⁾


		None	1 or 2	3-10	Over 10

All offenders	54,712	55	29	15	1	2.6	0.7
Number of previous convictions:
None	21,782	75	19	6	*	2.1	0.3
1 or 2	14,732	57	32	11	*	2.2	0.4
3 to 10	13,842	35	41	23	1	2.6	0.7
Over 10	4,356	15	33	49	3	4.0	2.0
Number of previous custodial convictions:
None	45,666	61	28	11	*	2.3	0.4
1 or 2	4,378	32	39	28	1	2.9	1.1
3 to 10	3,802	18	37	42	2	3.4	1.8
Over 10	866	9	25	60	6	5.0	3.2
Number of previous community convictions⁽¹⁾:
None	43,610	62	27	10	*	2.3	0.5
1 or 2	8,384	30	38	30	1	3.0	1.1
3 to 10	2,665	17	37	44	2	3.6	1.6
Over 10	53	8	23	64	6	5.0	2.6

(1) Convictions resulting in community service or probation.
(2) Average for offenders who had at least one reconviction within two years.

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Statistical Bulletin CrJ/2001/1 Reconvictions of Offenders discharged from Custody or given Non-Custodial Sentences in 1995, Scotland

5. General Analysis of Reconviction Rates

Statistical Bulletin CrJ/2001/1
Reconvictions of Offenders discharged from Custody
or given Non-Custodial Sentences in 1995, Scotland