Pupil Projections for Scotland
A Scottish Executive National Statistics Publication
The latest projections of pupil numbers in schools in Scotland
over the next decade are published today by the Scottish Executive Education
Department.This News Release updates the figures published in November 1999
in the News Release se1207/99. Projected pupil totals up to 2010 are
given for publicly funded and independent schools, as well as an age breakdown
for all pupils aged 4 and over receiving school education and a stage breakdown
for publicly funded primary and secondary schools.
These results have been estimated using pupil numbers collected
from the September School Censuses in 1997,1998 and 1999 and the mid-1998 based
population projections obtained from the General Register Office for Scotland.
Further details on the methodology used are given in the Notes
at the back of this News Release. Ad hoc tables are available on request.
The main findings are: -
- The number of pupils in publicly funded primary schools is projected to
fall steadily from the current (September 1999) level of 431,500. The total
is estimated to fall to 390,300 in 2005, 9 per cent less than at present and
to 371,800 in 2010, 14 per cent less than at present.
- Under an assumption that staying-on rates for pupils aged 16,17 and 18 increase
at a rate defined by the average increase over the past 5 years, the number
of pupils in publicly funded secondary schools is projected to increase gradually
from the current level of 315,400 to 317,800 in 2000 and then to 319,300 in
2003. A steady fall is then anticipated so that the number in 2010 is estimated
to be 291,000, 8 per cent less than at present.
- The numbers of pupils in publicly funded special schools and independent
schools are both projected to fall slightly in line with the anticipated decrease
in the number of children of school age.
- The total number of pupils aged 4 and over receiving school education is
projected to decrease gradually from the current level of 785,400, to 772,000
in 2002. Thereafter, a more pronounced decline year-on-year results in a fall
to 697,400 in 2010, a decrease of 11% from current levels.
- The size of the cohort of pupils entering P1 is projected to decline quite
sharply from 59,100 in 1999 to 55,000 in 2003, then more slowly to 53,000
in 2010.
- The size of the cohort of pupils entering S1 is projected to decrease slightly
from 61,800 in 1999 to 59,800 in 2001, then to rise to 61,900 in 2003 and
then to decline steadily to 52,700 in 2010.
NOTES TO NEWS EDITORS
Sources
1. The information in this News Release is derived from:
a) School Census September 1997, 1998, 1999 - pupil counts.
b) General Register Office for Scotland - mid-1998 based population projections.
Methodology
2. The methodology employed firstly compares the School
Census pupil counts for 1997, 1998 and 1999 with the corresponding population
data. The population data are then ‘re-based’ so as to be fully consistent
with the School Census figures, which are taken to be a more accurate measure
of the recent school population.
3. The School Census pupil counts are split for the publicly
funded and independent sectors. Within these sectors, the pupil counts are further
split into primary, secondary and special sectors. For pupils aged 4-15 in primary
and secondary, all pupils in special and independent schools and for children
receiving education outside of school, a 3-year average (1997, 1998 and 1999)
is then taken of the proportion of pupils of a given age in each of these sectors.
Forward projections are then calculated for these sectors by applying these
proportions to the future population estimates.
4. The projected number of pupils aged 16, 17 and 18 is derived
from the application of staying-on rates to the estimates for 14 years olds.
The projections assume that the staying-on rates increase gradually at a rate
defined by the average increase over the past 5 years.
| |
Staying-on rates(1999)
|
Average increase per year
|
Projected Staying-on rates(2010)
|
|
Aged 16
|
73.1%
|
0.3%
|
76.4%
|
|
Aged 17
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37.7%
|
0.2%
|
39.9%
|
|
Aged 18
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1.0%
|
0.0%
|
1.0%
|
Note that this technique of incrementing the staying-on rates
each year has not been applied to the independent secondary sector. This is
because staying on rates here are already very high and so have limited room
to increase - the effect on the projections would be very small indeed.
Effect of Birth Rate Estimates
5. The projections for primary school age children are increasingly
affected by predicted birth rates - this introduces a greater element of uncertainty.
The fall in projected numbers is principally due to very low birth rates over
the past few years. The population projections, which have been updated to a
1998 base, predict a pronounced decline in birth rates over the period covered.
6. This news release, and accompanying
tables, is available on the Scottish Executive website.
The provisional results of the recent September 2000 School Census will be published
soon in a separate statistical News Release.
7. Public enquiries (non-media) about the information
contained in this News Release should be addressed to Kirsty MacLean, Education
Statistics Division - Schools, The Scottish Executive Education Department,
Area 1-A, Victoria Quay, Edinburgh, EH6 6QQ. Telephone : 0131-244-0300 or e-mail
: kirsty.maclean@scotland.gov.uk
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