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HSG/2000/4 |
August 2000 |
1.1 This bulletin presents 1998-based household projections produced by the Scottish Executive Development Department. These update the 1996-based projections published in August 1998 in Statistical Bulletin HSG/1998/5, and incorporate the 1998-based population projections.
1.2 These household projections are calculated by applying trends in household formation observed in the 1981 and 1991 Censuses of Population to the 1998-based population projections prepared by the Government Actuary's Department and the General Register Office (Scotland). It is important to note that the projections should not be treated as forecasts but as an indication of what might happen in the future if past trends were to continue. No account is taken of trends in household formation since 1991.
Chart 1
The main points to emerge from the projections are:
The total number of households in Scotland is projected to increase by 12 per cent (260,000) from 2.17 million in 1998 to 2.43 million in 2012.
Increases are projected in all household types, except those consisting of 2 or more adults and children. Households of this type are projected to fall by 155,000, making up 12 per cent of all households in 2012 compared to 21 per cent in 1998.
Although the number of households is projected to rise, the private household population is projected to fall, by around 43,100, from 5.01 million in 1998 to 4.97 million in 2012, in line with the projected fall in total population.
Hence, the average household size is projected to fall from 2.3 persons in 1998 to 2.0 persons in 2012.
The projections for West Lothian and East Lothian show the largest percentage increase in total households between 1998 and 2012, with projected increases of 24 per cent and 19 per cent respectively.
East Ayrshire have the smallest projected percentage increase in total households at 4 per cent.
Dundee City and Inverclyde are the only areas projected to have a decrease in total households (both of 1 per cent).
Household projections are produced approximately every 2 years. Their purpose is to give an indication of possible future numbers of households if trends observed in the past continue. It is important to realise that projections are not forecasts. The calculation of projected household numbers involves using the following two main sources of information:
Data on households from previous Censuses of Population can be used to identify trends which have taken place in household formation in the past. Census information is available for the years 1971, 1981 and 1991. This historic information is used to project possible future trends. For this set of household projections, the 1981 and 1991 Censuses of Population have been used (see Annex A.4 for details of other methods tried).
Population projections produced by the General Register Office for Scotland (GRO(S)) give an indication of possible future trends in population. Estimates of the numbers of persons living in communal establishments are subtracted from the total population figures to produce projections of the numbers of person living in private households.
The household projections are then calculated by applying projected trends in household formation, derived from the first of these sources, to projections of the numbers of persons in private households, derived from the second source.
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