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Climate Change: North Atlantic Comparisons

Chapter Five implications for Scotland

Introduction

5.1 This chapter considers the implications for Scotland of the regional climate change issues discussed in Chapter Four. It explores options for action and possible opportunities for collaboration with the study countries within the existing political context of regional, national and local influences on policy making.

Climate impacts and adaptation

Climate Impacts

5.2 Programmes of work assessing climate impacts are at an early stage because of the limited reliability of the regional climate scenarios. This problem is now being rectified through the work of Nordic countries’ National Climate Programmes, which co-ordinate their work together and, through European-funded programmes, with the Hadley Centre in the UK. In Scotland, regional climate scenarios based on Hadley Centre climate models are also being developed.

5.3 A key conclusion of the report, Climate Change: Scottish Implications Scoping Study was that changing rainfall patterns would arguably be the most important climate impact in Scotland. In a similar vein, the Nordic Council of Ministers co-ordinated a research project on hydropower and water resources across the Nordic countries to assess the implications of climate change and reached similar conclusions. It appears that the likely future changes in Scottish climate are more similar to those in the Nordic countries and Ireland than to the expected changes in Southeast England. This suggests that further co-ordination between the regional climate scenarios being developed for Scotland and those being developed in Nordic countries would be beneficial.

5.4 Both the UK Government and the Nordic Council of Ministers have funded studies of regional climate change indicators. A substantial body of work also exists on the impacts of climate on northern ecosystems, particularly the fragile Arctic ecosystems, under the auspices of the Arctic Council to which the UK has observer status and the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC). Another major initiative just getting underway is the Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIA). Scotland’s extensive upland and sub-Arctic ecosystems have many similarities with those of the Nordic countries. Biodiversity 2000, a Nordic Council of Ministers project that includes Baltic Countries and to which Scotland was invited to join, will report within 2 years. Again, this existing work suggests that further co-ordination of climate change indicators across the study countries would be beneficial.

Adaptation to Climate Impacts

5.5 Few projects exploring adaptation to climate change have been carried out in the study countries. An example of one is the EU-funded project, ACACIA, which is co-ordinated at the University of East Anglia. ACACIA is 'A Concerted Action towards a comprehensive Climate Impacts and Adaptation assessment for the EU'. In the UK, the DETR has recently published an ERM study of potential adaptation strategies for climate change, and this work is being carried forward in further studies. Following the similarities in vulnerability to climate change noted between Scotland, Ireland and the Nordic Countries, it is logical to suggest that projects exploring adaptation strategies for climate change should be co-ordinated where possible between these countries.

Miitigation of greenhouse gas emissions

5.6 Scotland’s Climate Change Programme was published in March 2000. The other countries in this study are at various stages in the development of their climate programmes:

Energy Sector

5.7 Energy policy is a reserved matter for the UK Government. Nevertheless, since energy use is the primary cause of greenhouse gas emissions from society, it is instructive to consider how energy matters in the countries of this study relate to the situation in Scotland.

5.8 The study countries have a very different energy mix and this diversity has driven their respective policies. Sweden has arguably the closest mix of energy supply to Scotland, because of its dependence on nuclear and hydropower. More importantly, Scotland and the UK will be facing a similar situation after the first Kyoto period to that facing Sweden today, as Sweden intends to decommission its nuclear power stations over the next few years.

5.9 The desire expressed in the UK draft climate programme for more CHP plants has most resonance in the extensive CHP and district heating schemes of Denmark, Sweden and Finland. The development of these schemes appears to owe much both to national government policy to improve efficiency of energy supply and to the decentralised decision-making of the municipal authorities. For example, in Denmark, existing district heating schemes were adapted to small-scale CHP, burning biomass or natural gas. Further development of such infrastructure is likely to be very costly.

5.10 The pre-eminent climate-related policy tool for the energy sector in all the study countries is taxation in the form of energy or carbon taxes. Such taxes are a reserved matter for the UK Government, but the Scottish Executive will receive its share of the UK Climate Change Levy.

5.11 The Scottish Executive is consulting on a new renewables target for Scotland. Outwith the geothermal source in Iceland and hydropower, Denmark provides the most ambitious targets for renewable resources, together with the use of biogas in Finland. Denmark aims to have 20% of their energy supplied by renewables by 2005. However, they can accomplish this only through their ‘green’ reforms of the electricity market, which will be implemented next year.

5.12 Energy market liberalisation in the Nordic Countries and the electricity reforms in Denmark provide a useful comparison to changes occurring in the UK. The UK Department of Trade and Industry recently concluded that the planned UK electricity trading reforms will have a slightly negative impact on renewable energy and combined heat and power (CHP) projects, with a resultant increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

Transport Sector

5.13 Only Sweden, of the study countries, has a sizeable car manufacturing activity. The remaining countries, like Scotland, are reliant on pressures brought by the European Union on international car manufacturers to improve fuel efficiencies and so cut emissions from the transport sector.

5.14 Improving fuel efficiencies alone is widely agreed to be an insufficient response to the increasing desire for mobility in society. Fuel switching away from fossil fuels remains a medium-term objective for which research funding is provided within Europe. The policy area in which governments have influence is the development of an integrated transport strategy to meet the needs of both urban and rural populations. In conjunction with local authorities, policies need to be developed for local schemes in urban areas to tackle transport-related problems such as congestion, air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Measures for an integrated transport strategy in Scotland are being taken forward at both national and local authority level. Similar schemes are operating or planned in the major conurbations of the study countries, such as the Dublin Transport Initiative, and schemes in the Copenhagen and Stockholm areas. A key component of such schemes appears to be the need for local solutions to tackle local issues.

5.15 The pre-eminent instrument for minimising greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector in all the study countries is by the use of fuel taxation. This is a reserved matter for the UK Parliament, but the Scottish Executive has provided funding of over £14 million over 3 years to mitigate the most detrimental effects of this policy in rural areas. Evidence from the study countries suggested that increasing the marginal rates of fuel taxation would reduce emissions from the transport sector, but not at a sufficient rate to offset the increased mobility demanded by society.

Business Sector

5.16 The climate-related policy options available are regulation, voluntary agreements, subsidies and taxation, and emissions trading. The European Commission IPPC Directive is the most important climate-related regulatory tool and will affect all the study countries. The Scottish Environment Protection Agency will implement the Directive’s energy efficiency provisions in Scotland.

5.17 Voluntary agreements between Governments and energy-intensive industries are also a common approach in the study countries. Agreements are negotiated both in the form of emissions reduction targets and in the form of exemptions from cross cutting energy taxation on the grounds of international competition. Such voluntary agreements also come under the reserved powers of the UK Government rather than the Scottish Executive.

5.18 Taxation, such as the UK Climate Change Levy, and the development of measures for emissions trading are also reserved powers for the UK Government. The proposed trial use of Kyoto mechanisms between Nordic and Baltic States under the auspices of the Nordic Council of Ministers is likely to be of interest to the UK. Similarly, the proposed transformation from a carbon taxation system to an emission trading system in Norway, to meet its Kyoto greenhouse gas emission target, should be of interest to Scotland and the UK.

5.19 The strategy for dealing with waste is a devolved matter and is being co-ordinated by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency. International efforts to minimise waste disposal have contributed to the development of waste strategies. In the study countries the main effort was to reduce the number of waste sites to a minimum and improve processes to reclaim methane. However, in rural areas, this may lead to higher emissions from the increased transport to reach the sites. Other work in the study countries concerns measures by authorities to increase the level of responsibility on producers for dealing with waste. In particular in Sweden, producers are responsible for collecting and disposing of waste paper packaging, tyres and cars. Norway has put efforts into improving household sorting of waste. In general, organic waste is being progressively banned from landfill sites in the study countries.

Domestic Sector

5.20 Comparison with the study countries suggests that improving energy and thermal efficiencies in domestic and commercial buildings is the most important climate-related action available to the Scottish Executive. In this area, the Nordic Countries provide a useful benchmark. The climate in their populated southern regions is close to that of Scotland, but the thermal efficiencies of buildings are much higher. Denmark, in particular, has followed aggressive policies for improving energy efficiency in buildings. The enforcement of energy audits and ratings of existing households appears to have led to increased awareness of energy issues. The Nordic Countries use their full range of financial instruments within the energy sector to recycle tax revenue towards improving energy efficiency.

5.21 Information awareness on energy and energy efficiency issues in Ireland benefits from heavy marketing and its one-stop shop approach with the Irish Energy Centre. This may prove a useful approach to adopt in Scotland.

Agriculture, forestry and fishing sector

5.22 In April this year the Scottish Executive launched the discussion document A Forward Strategy for Scottish Agriculture. This document lays out the current shape of Scotland's farming sector, and proposes ways that it can meet the considerable challenges ahead, posed for example by enlargement of the EU and global trade liberalisation. Some policies aimed at separate objectives have had the effect of producing beneficial reductions in methane and nitrous oxide. The potential exists to integrate the objective of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions with the other shorter-term objectives of agricultural policy.

5.23 In particular, measures to reduce nitrate pollution of surface and ground waters by controlling the inputs of nitrogen fertilisers, slurry or manure to the environment offer a real opportunity to reduce emissions of nitrous oxide. The development of policies in this area could be usefully informed by detailed examination of voluntary, legislative and fiscal measures already in place in Ireland, Norway and Sweden. Promotion of the cultivation of willow coppice for biomass energy production is a potential means of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by displacing fossil fuel use. Sweden has been very successful in this area, with strong linkage between agricultural and energy policy. Increased conversion of arable land to organic cultivation also offers the prospect of reducing nitrous oxide emissions. Additional support and promotion could be considered in the light of measures used by Sweden to achieve organic cultivation of 8% of its arable area. Denmark has achieved a target of organic cultivation of 5.5% of its arable area in 1999.

5.24 The Draft Scottish Forestry Strategy, published for consultation in March this year, acknowledges the importance of Scotland's forests as sinks for carbon dioxide. Although any future forest expansion will need to take account of a wide range of concerns, including rural sustainability and biodiversity protection, wherever possible opportunities to maximise carbon dioxide uptake through the design and management of plantations could be taken. Afforestation of peatlands can increase emissions of carbon dioxide from the soil as a result of drying, offsetting carbon dioxide uptake by the growing trees, and may also increasingly reduce emission rates of methane and nitrous oxide as the soil dries. The processes involved are not well quantified and proper assessment of the full greenhouse gas balance is hampered by this lack of knowledge. This is an active area of research in Finland, where there has been much afforestation of peat, and outputs of Finnish research should be examined for relevance to Scotland.

5.25 The possible impact of climate change on ocean circulation and fisheries in the North Atlantic is highlighted as an important concern of the major fishing nations of the study region, and was also identified by the Climate Change: Scottish Implications Scoping Study (Kerr et al., 1999). Current ocean climate monitoring activities in Scottish waters could be maintained or strengthened and the outputs of relevant research programmes, such as the recently announced joint UK-Nordic initiative, should be carefully assessed by the Scottish Executive.

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