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Climate Change: North Atlantic Comparisons

Chapter Four regional comparison of climate issues

Introduction

4.1 This chapter provides a short regional comparison of the national climate issues that were described in Chapter Three. The analysis concentrates on issues relating to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in each of the socio-economic sectors (e.g. Table 4.1). The implications for Scotland and opportunities for future collaboration are discussed in Chapter Five.

Table 4.1 Examples of the Use of Different Policy Measures to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions¹

4.2 This chapter assesses the main climate issues in the study countries in the context of possible policy options within each sector. The comparison considers both climate impacts and measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, though most information detailed in this chapter concerns options to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Work investigating climate impacts on the region's socio-economic sectors has focused mainly on the effect of changing precipitation patterns and the effect of sea level rise.

4.3 The approach to climate change mitigation depends on the particular greenhouse gas and on its sources and sinks. The most important greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, which is primarily derived from fuel combustion. Policies can seek to reduce emissions by improving the efficiency with which consumers and business use fuel and energy, or by fuel switching to low-carbon fuels. Alternatively, carbon dioxide concentrations can be reduced by sequestration in vegetation and soils, by increasing the sequestering potential through land use change or increasing the total stock of forests. The other greenhouse gas emissions can be controlled at source by pollution control systems or by changing the process of production, such as the introduction of clean technology. For example, methane emissions can be reduced with gas recovery equipment at landfills. Changing patterns of consumption to less greenhouse gas intensive products or services can reduce emissions of all greenhouse gases (ERM, 1998). This chapter discusses a number of policy options available to the Nordic countries and Ireland but not to Scotland and Northern Ireland, since the options relate to powers that are reserved to the UK Government. It would be inappropriate to compare national climate issues without considering all the policy tools at their disposal.

ENERGY

4.4 Energy use is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. Responsibility for meeting the Kyoto targets will fall principally on energy production, transformation, distribution and use (IEA, 1997). In the past, economic growth has been coupled to increasing energy use, which results in rising greenhouse gas emissions. More recently, fuel switching and the growth in importance of the business service sector relative to energy intensive sectors of industry have loosened this relationship.

4.5 The primary consideration at the heart of every national energy policy is security of energy supply at competitive prices. Security of energy supply is usually closely linked with the availability of indigenous sources and the diversity of supply. Diversity reduces the reliance on any one source either internally or internationally. For example, the oil crisis of the 1970s drove national governments to diversify away from imported oil. Environmental matters, particularly the need to develop sustainable energy supplies in view of climate change, are also becoming increasingly important in national energy policies. The requirements of energy security, diversity and sustainability rarely match. National policies are therefore a political balance between these competing interests.

Energy Sources in the Study Countries

4.6 Norway, Denmark, Ireland and Scotland² have commercially viable fossil fuel reserves. Of these, only Norway and Scotland are net exporters of energy. Finland is particularly reliant on fossil fuel imports from Russia; Denmark relies on imported coal from various sources; Iceland, Sweden, Ireland and Northern Ireland import substantial quantities of fossil fuels.

4.7 The more northern study countries, Iceland, Scotland, Norway, Sweden and Finland, all have substantial natural energy capacity from hydropower. Of these, only Iceland has major potential for further hydropower. Iceland is also the only country with substantial capacity for geothermal energy.

4.8 Sweden and Scotland have nuclear power. No further stations are planned at present and, in Sweden, the Government intends to decommission its 12 power stations over the next few years. If present policies continue, Scotland's nuclear capacity will run down over the next 25 years. Capacity for energy supply from peat and bio-fuels exists primarily in Finland, Sweden and Ireland and, to a lesser extent, in Denmark.

4.9 Each country has a markedly different mix of indigenous and available energy resources. Norway and Iceland stand out because about 70% and 98% respectively of their standing energy requirements are derived from renewable sources of energy. Denmark, Northern Ireland, Ireland and Finland have, in contrast, relatively carbon-rich sources of energy supply in the form of coal or oil, much of which is imported. Scotland and Sweden, with their nuclear and hydropower capacity, have most similarities and lie between the two extremes.

4.10 In the study countries with indigenous energy resources, the need for energy security and political pressures to use indigenous over imported resources places a substantial constraint on the ability of national governments to switch energy supply towards lower-carbon sources. The continuing liberalisation of the energy markets is likely to reduce this government influence over the source of energy supply since more consideration will be given to the cost of energy generation. Nordic plans are ongoing for the further inter-connection of natural gas infrastructure and electricity supplies. Similarly, plans within Ireland and the UK for further development of the gas and electricity connectors are well advanced. Clearly, these market opportunities are important for the energy generators in Scotland and this international trade will affect national greenhouse gas emissions.

4.11 Fuel switching will continue to take place from coal or oil to natural gas as the natural gas infrastructure develops in the Nordic Countries, Ireland and Northern Ireland. Improving the efficiency of energy generation is also possible by switching to gas-fired generators, since they are more efficient than their oil or coal counterparts.

4.12 Alternatively, options available to governments are to increase the proportion of combined heat and power plants (CHP), which have markedly higher efficiencies than oil or coal power stations. Sweden, Finland and Denmark, which all require substantial fossil fuel imports, have followed this route and established extensive district heating systems or derive electricity supplies from CHP. The mechanisms for establishing such schemes appear to rest on the government’s aggressive desire to increase efficiencies in power generation coupled to the balance of responsibility between municipal and national decision-making, which appears less centralised than that in the UK. The UK has a target of 10,000 MW of CHP by 2010 and Scotland has about 11% of the installed capacity at present.

End use of energy

4.13 The Nordic countries have adjusted their energy supply to ensure that electricity and space heating are generated, where possible, by renewable sources. In Norway, Sweden and Iceland much of the electricity is generated by renewable sources or, in the case of Sweden, by nuclear power. Consequently, in these countries, space heating by electricity is encouraged over solid fuels. District heating schemes in Denmark and Finland and/or the use of Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants provide a relatively efficient form of space heating in these countries with characteristically carbon-rich sources of energy.

4.14 The development of district heating in Finland owes much to the waste energy provision from its forest industry installations. In contrast, Denmark has predominantly light industry, but has adapted an extensive district-heating network to operate with CHP plant.

4.15 Renewable energy sources apart from hydropower remain a small component of the total energy supply for all the study countries other than Iceland. Denmark has invested most heavily in wind-power and is now recognised as a world leader in the technology. Denmark has an objective of supplying 20% of its energy by renewable sources, in the form of wind and biogas power, by 2005, an increase of about 1% per year over the next few years. Scotland is consulting on a new renewables target of approximately 17-18% of energy supply by 2010.

4.16 Work is continuing in the study countries on renewable energy sources, in conjunction with EU-funded programmes. At present, energy prices are falling in response to market liberalisation and this means that only wind-power is commercially competitive. Other renewable sources require some form of subsidy or exemption from tax to have financial viability. Norwegian sources noted that while the potential for renewable sources was large, particularly for wind-power, the associated infrastructure costs of road building and grid connections in rough terrain limited its economic potential in Norway.

Policy Context

4.17 The study countries all make extensive use of financial instruments to influence behaviour in the energy sector, primarily through taxes on the consumption of energy and, more recently, with carbon taxes. The Nordic countries have some of the highest energy taxes in the world.

4.18 Commonly, the energy intensive industries have negotiated exemptions from the highest taxes on grounds of international competition and the local impact on jobs. Norway’s Emissions Trading Commission concluded that a comprehensive trading system would remove many of the iniquities of their existing tax system, both by removing the exemptions on specific industries and by ensuring the non-energy intensive service sector played its part.

4.19 One striking feature of Denmark, Sweden and Finland is the extensive use of district heating using waste heat from industrial processes or small-scale CHP. The approach to energy issues in these countries appears to have evolved within political structures that devolve more power to municipal authorities than has historically been the case in Scotland.

4.20 Perhaps the most important influence on the energy sector over the next few years will be the increasingly competitive market driven by liberalisation and interconnectivity of energy supply between countries. Work commissioned as part of the UK Royal Commission Study on Energy and the Environment concluded that market liberalisation will have two positive effects (Hartley and Helm, 1997). Firstly, the efficiency with which energy is produced and distributed will improve and secondly, a wider group of stakeholders will become involved in decisions about energy use and production. However, this process also raises the issue of whether public policy objectives, such as mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, will be pursued with such vigour since governments will have significantly less control over outcomes.

4.21 The liberalisation of the energy markets in the Nordic region is being undertaken concurrently with an increasing focus on the Baltic region and with former East European countries. One approach under consideration at the Nordic Council of Ministers is to test the Kyoto Protocol flexible mechanisms, such as Joint Implementation (JI) and emissions trading, on a project in the Baltic and former East European countries. Nordic Energy and Environment ministers will meet later this summer to consider how best to implement this project. Respondents to this study suggested that the Nordic Council of Ministers might encourage private companies and neighbour countries, such as the UK, to join the scheme.

Climate Impacts

4.22 The main work on climate impacts was undertaken by the Nordic programme on Climate Change and Energy Production, funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers. The resulting report, entitled Climate change impacts on runoff and hydropower in the Nordic countries, provides the most comprehensive assessment of how the changing climate is likely to affect water resources across the Nordic countries and associated risks from flooding and dam safety. Runoff simulations suggest that western Norway is likely to become wetter by about 20% while drier areas of southern Sweden are likely to become drier by about 20%. Other conclusions are treated with circumspection because of the uncertainties associated with the climate scenarios and the runoff models. One important finding was that it is easier to predict the impacts of seasonal variation of the hydrological parameters and energy production than the changes in average runoff and production. The report suggested that many of the classical methods for calculating design of hydropower plants, dams and other hydraulic structures are undermined by the effects of climate change.

4.23 The report Climate Change: Scottish Implications Scoping Study (Kerr et al., 1999) suggested that the energy sector was most vulnerable to an increase in the intensity or frequency of storms, because of damage to the transmission network infrastructure, and to an increase in the intensity of precipitation events, leading to flooding. Coastal power stations in Scotland are also vulnerable to sea level rise.

Transport

Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

4.24 None of the study countries, indeed no OECD country, has found a solution for reducing the fast growing emissions of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, from the transport sector. The transport sector has a near total dependence on oil products and has been generating a proportionately higher percentage of the total greenhouse gas emissions in recent years. Governments are constrained by an internationally shared antipathy to any political intervention that seeks to limit an individual’s mobility. No government has thus far demonstrated policies related to energy use that can reduce overall demand for mobility. On the contrary, many governments support subsidies for vehicle ownership, such as company car schemes (IEA, 1997).

Reducing Mobility or Improving Energy Intensity of Transport

4.25 Apart from Denmark, the study countries are characterised by large rural areas, often in rough terrain, where road is the main form of transport. Attempting to reduce mobility in these regions is unlikely to be socially viable. Conversely, the provision of integrated planning for new urban and suburban developments provides options for reducing dependence on car use or switching to less carbon-intensive forms of energy, such as public transport. Schemes are underway in many of the major conurbations of the study countries to reduce car use. Examples include the Dublin Transport Initiative, developments in the Copenhagen area and around Stockholm. These schemes appear to be similar to proposed schemes in urban areas of Scotland. Unlike national financial instruments, local schemes such as these can be developed by local authorities and used to tackle a range of problems focused traditionally on congestion and local air pollution.

4.26 The second approach to reducing mobility or increasing the energy intensity of each transport activity is by the use of financial instruments. In the study countries, financial instruments are the primary instrument to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Rates of fuel taxation are high in the Nordic countries and the UK by international standards. However, the marginal rates of taxation implied by further increases in a carbon or energy tax over and above the existing taxation are relatively small in the transport sector compared with other more energy-intensive sectors. Evidence from Sweden and Scotland also suggests that further fuel taxes will meet much public resistance, particularly in less populated areas. Of the study countries, only Sweden has commercial car manufacturing. Their two car manufacturers will align with the EC target level of reducing average fuel consumption in cars by 25% by 2008.

4.27 Other financial instruments used in the study countries include the use of graduated annual and sales tax bands depending on the size, weight and emissions of different cars. Alternative approaches in the study countries suggest shifting an increasing bulk of taxation from that of ownership to taxes for vehicle use in the form of toll rings around cities and other congestion charging, such as road pricing. A Danish government study suggested that climate mitigation measures in the transport sector were only effective when implemented in conjunction with other transport goals, such as lower air pollution, noise and reducing traffic.

4.28 Finland, which is heavily reliant on heavy lorry traffic for its trade, has achieved relatively efficient use of its road freight traffic, reflecting its success at ensuring fully loaded lorries and thus a high tonnage per kilometre for freight traffic.

4.29 Ireland, Northern Ireland and Iceland are concentrating on improving their transport infrastructure, rather than focusing on emissions reductions. In 1997, the UNFCCC review team suggested that Sweden had not placed as much emphasis on reducing emissions from the transport sector as compared with the energy sector. The development this year of their climate change programme provides a focus on crosscutting mitigation measures including transport. A new transport policy has set out long-term objectives relating, in part, to the environment.

4.30 Norway makes extensive use of financial instruments in the transport sector, including toll rings operating around the largest towns in Norway. The revenue is re-cycled into funds for road building and public transport infrastructure. Denmark has perhaps the most ambitious plans for reducing emissions from its transport sector, set out in its 2005 Action Plan. Nevertheless, the UNFCCC review team suggested that Denmark, like other countries, was unlikely to attain its emissions targets in the transport sector by 2005.

4.31 The bulk of freight transport in the study countries is carried over distances of less than 100 km, suggesting that modal switches to rail traffic is unlikely to economically viable for most freight. However, the typical journey distance travelled by car is less than 4 kilometres. This suggests that more effective urban and suburban land use planning could have a marked effect on the number of car journeys. Respondents to this study noted that the effect of municipal land use planning since the 1960s will take decades to reverse.

Changing the Fuel Mix

4.32 Substantial work into alternative fuels is ongoing within the EU and elsewhere. At present, road fuel gases such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), compressed natural gas (CNG) and, to a lesser extent, liquid natural gas (LNG) are probably the most viable alternatives to conventional fuels and the geographical coverage of refuelling stations is growing. Other alternatives are electric or hybrid-electric vehicles using batteries or, in the future, fuel-cells. None of these alternatives appear likely to displace the reliance of vehicles on oil in the next decade, but hold much promise in the longer-term.

Climate Impacts

4.33 No specific projects investigating the physical impact of climate change on the transport sector were uncovered in countries other than Scotland. Here, climate change, specifically flooding and associated problems, is thought to present an important business risk to transport operations. The maintenance of transport links could prove a substantial expense for local authorities and commercial companies. There does not appear to be any substantive national work on adaptation to climate impacts in the transport sector. The main concern of the Nordic countries and Scotland is the increased flood risk from higher levels of precipitation or sea level rise, which will affect all socio-economic sectors.

Business

Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

4.34 The issues facing the business sector vary markedly between the study countries depending on the relative importance of different business sectors to the national economy. All the study countries rely heavily on the service sector, which is affected relatively little by climate issues. Denmark has a sector dominated by light industry and food product manufacture, while other Nordic countries have heavy industry sectors. The economic importance of the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector is relatively more important in Ireland and Iceland than in the other study countries.

4.35 Where crosscutting policies such as national energy taxes are imposed, concerns about industrial competitiveness in the international arena tend to result in exemptions or special provisions. The emissions trading scheme proposed in Norway aims to avoid the need for special exemptions for specific industries and to draw in the service sector to account for its energy use.

4.36 Voluntary agreements between governments and specific industrial sectors are also common throughout the study countries. Ensuring compliance differs between the countries. Denmark, for example, uses a stick and carrot approach with the threat of formal legislation if negotiated targets are not met.

4.37 The key regulatory feature is the implementation of the EC Integrated Pollution Prevention Control (IPPC) Directive. The IPPC will control emissions from major point sources of greenhouse gases. The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) will enforce the energy efficiency provisions of IPPC in Scotland. Although Norway and Iceland are outwith the European Union, their membership of the European Free Trade Area obliges them to legislate to equivalent standards. The Norwegian CBI argues that the implementation of a complete emissions-trading scheme should negate the need for implementation of the IPPC Directive for greenhouse gases.

4.38 The emissions of the 'industrial' greenhouse gases, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride, are either derived from specific industrial processes or use of, for example, refrigerants. Policy instruments to reduce these emissions focus on negotiated 'voluntary' agreements.

4.39 Comprehensive waste strategies are being developed in the study countries. European guidelines on waste minimisation, recycling and landfill with gas recovery appear to lie at the heart of these national waste strategies. Commonly, there is an intention to reduce the number of landfill sites and improve the gas recovery systems at these remaining sites. Ireland and Iceland noted that the cost of waste disposal is relatively high in rural areas. Reducing the number of landfill sites may increase overall emissions because of the increased transport required and, in the case of Iceland, is said to raise methane emissions because shallow landfill produces relatively less methane than deep sites.

4.40 Most of the study countries have plans to ban organic waste from being deposited in landfill sites over the next 5 years. Sweden noted some success at introducing producer responsibility for waste collection, such as waste paper packaging, tyres and cars. Norway suggested that the most important waste measures are sorting household waste at source, collection schemes based on agreements between the authorities and industry and on return- schemes for particular products.

Climate Impacts

4.41 As with the transport sector, no specific national projects investigating climate impacts or adaptation in the business sector were uncovered in the course of this project apart from the work described earlier from the Nordic Research Programme, Climate Change and Energy Production.

Domestic

Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

4.42 Policy instruments to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions include:

• Moving towards a lower carbon and/or more efficient energy source for heat and electricity;
• Influencing a European effort at improving the energy efficiency of electrical goods;
• Improving the thermal efficiencies of houses through tighter building regulations;
• Improving the political structures between local and national levels to provide a framework to facilitate local solutions to local problems.

4.43 Policies for moving towards lower carbon or more efficient energy sources for heat and electricity are discussed in the section on energy. The European efforts to improve energy efficiency of electrical goods are ongoing.

4.44 Scotland intends to tighten its building regulations to improve energy efficiency though the details have yet to be agreed. An unofficial comparison of thermal efficiencies of buildings around Europe suggests that the UK has equivalent thermal efficiencies to European mainland countries (Feldmann et al., 1999). In response to an enquiry for this study, the Building Research Establishment noted that thermal efficiencies and energy ratings were very similar across the UK and Ireland. However, the Nordic countries have markedly better thermal efficiencies, befitting their northerly location.

4.45 Apart from in Ireland, turnover of stock in the study countries is relatively small. Efforts have therefore been focused on information awareness campaigns. For example, in Ireland the Irish Energy Centre acts as a one-stop shop for all energy efficiency enquiries. In Denmark, the 1997 Energy Management Act required owners to establish energy labelling and energy ratings on buildings when they are sold. This is expected to raise the profile of energy conservation substantially in the domestic sector. Finland is undertaking a similar scheme aimed at auditing existing buildings with incentives and investment grants for energy efficiency improvements. Northern Ireland is also aiming for a sharp increase in domestic energy efficiency over the coming few years.

4.46 A further feature of the Nordic countries is the presence of regional or local energy companies, often funded through re-cycled electricity taxes and designed to promote the efficient use of energy. Some similar schemes exist in Scotland, such as that in South Ayrshire, but at a more limited scale.

4.47 Respondents to the study noted that the existing low energy prices acted as a disincentive for active management of energy efficiency by householders.

AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHERIES

Agriculture

4.48 The importance and composition of the agricultural sector varies across the study region according to climate and historic patterns of land management. In the more northerly countries crop production is limited by the cool climate so livestock production dominates, and forestry is the major land use. Ireland and Denmark are most economically dependent on their agricultural sectors.

4.49 Across the region, national studies of the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture suggest mainly positive outcomes. The predicted temperature increases, combined with the effect of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on plant growth, will probably raise yields, and allow the cultivation of a wider range of crops. The benefit will be most significant in the northerly areas where climate is the major limitation on agriculture, and the expected temperature increase will significantly lengthen the growing season. In Finland cereal production may move northwards 250-500 km by 2050 and it may become possible to grow maize in the south of the country (Finland’s Ministry of Environment, 1997). In Iceland a 1°C increase in mean annual temperature is predicted to increase hay yields by 20%. Generally agriculture is not limited by water availability and climate change is not expected to have the adverse effect on crop water balance that is a serious concern in southern Europe. The most likely negative impacts arise from the possible increased incidence of pests and diseases in response to climate warming.

4.50 The major drivers of change in the agricultural sector are the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and trends in world market prices for agricultural produce. Under the CAP reforms in 1992, there was a switch from price support toward direct payments to farmers based on livestock numbers or cultivated area. A package of accompanying measures included an agri-environment programme, which provided aid to farmers who reduced the use of fertilisers and pesticides, set aside land for environmental purposes or converted to organic agriculture.

4.51 Agriculture is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, mainly methane and nitrous oxide, and agricultural emissions are appreciable elements of the greenhouse gas inventories of Ireland and Denmark. Methane is produced by enteric fermentation in ruminant livestock and from anaerobic decomposition of manure. None of the study countries have policies specifically aimed at reducing agricultural methane emissions, though other policies have an equivalent effect. As a result of the universal drive for production efficiency and the impact of measures to limit over-production, such as milk quotas, livestock numbers are falling. Improvements in manure management designed to reduce nutrient pollution also tend to reduce methane emissions. In Ireland a Code of Good Agricultural Practice to Protect Waters from Pollution from Nitrates encourages farmers to store manure and spread in spring when the soil is dry, maximising uptake by crops. In Norway and Sweden regulations are used to limit stocking density and control manure spreading. In Denmark new technology for generating energy from methane from manure tanks has recently been developed and will assist in achieving a target reduction of 75% in tank emissions. Methane emissions from livestock also depend on feed quality. Studies in Ireland suggest that by changing feed-stuffs of dairy cows methane emissions could be reduced by 25% with no loss in production.

4.52 Nitrous oxide emissions are produced by the use of artificial nitrogen fertiliser and manure. The processes underlying nitrous oxide emissions are not completely understood, so the figure given in the national greenhouse gas inventories carry high uncertainties. Policies motivated by the need to reduce nitrate pollution have also tended to decrease nitrous oxide emissions. Various measures have been used to reduce fertiliser and manure use: voluntary approaches (e.g. the Code of Practice in Ireland), legislation to control stocking density and manure spreading (e.g. Norway and Sweden) or taxation of nitrogen fertiliser (e.g. Norway and Sweden). Active promotion of organic farming, where chemical nitrogen fertilisers are not used, is also likely to reduce emissions and meets other goals for rural sustainability, biodiversity protection and food safety. In Sweden financial incentives have been used to achieve a conversion of 8% of arable land to organic cultivation. Denmark also has a high organic farming target; the 99,163 ha converted or under conversion in 1998 made up 3,6 percent of the total agricultural area in Denmark. In 1999 this figure was 5.5 percent.

Forestry

4.53 Finland and Sweden have the largest forest areas and are most economically dependent on forestry. In these countries the uptake of carbon dioxide by forest growth is a significant term in the national greenhouse gas balance. Throughout the region there has been a change from forest policies focused solely on production to recognition of the need to give equal weight to environmental protection, biodiversity and amenity. Appreciation of the role of forests as carbon dioxide sinks is fairly recent and is only now being integrated into forest policy. The scope for further afforestation of already heavily forested countries like Finland and Sweden is limited by land availability. Denmark, Iceland and Ireland currently have programmes of forest expansion, motivated primarily by the desire to increase self-sufficiency in timber, though an increase in carbon dioxide sink capacity will be an additional benefit. However, in all cases, much of the afforestation is taking place on private land, and cannot be achieved without offering grants and subsidies that are competitive with the income achievable from alternative land uses.

Fisheries

4.54 Iceland's economy is extremely dependent on fisheries and fish processing, with 76% of exports based on fish products (Icelandic Ministry for the Environment, 1997). Norway and Denmark also have large fishing industries. The main driver of policy is the need to maintain fish stocks. Many commercially important species are close to or below 'safe biological limits' mainly as a result of over-fishing. Exploitation in now strongly controlled through a system of quotas and there are attempts to reduce over-capacity in the fishing fleet. Emissions of greenhouse gases from fishing vessels are not generally a significant component of national emissions. Iceland is a notable exception: fishing vessels account for 35% of national CO₂ emissions (Icelandic Ministry for the Environment, 1997).

4.55 The major concern regarding fisheries, most strongly expressed by Iceland, is the impact of climate change on ocean circulation, and how this might reduce or alter the distribution of fish stocks. Observations show that the formation of deep water in the Greenland Sea is decreasing and this is weakening the northward surface flow of warm Atlantic water. This may change the productivity of the planktonic food sources and interfere with the dispersal of fish larvae. In response, UK and Norwegian scientists have produced a framework proposal for a research programme in the Bergen Report: "Rapid Climate Change and the Northern High-Latitude Oceans". The key question to be addressed by such a programme is whether a rapid cooling could occur in the climate of northwest Europe in response to changes in the thermohaline overturning circulation of the Arctic and sub-Arctic seas. This initiative has led to the announcement of a new research programme to be jointly funded by the UK and Norway.

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