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Climate Change: North Atlantic Comparisons

SCOTLAND

Introduction

3.202 Information in this section is drawn from the recent report, Climate Change: Scottish Implications Scoping Study (Kerr et al., 1999) and the Scottish Climate Change Programme (Scottish Executive, 2000).

Figure 3.9 Outline map of Scotland (shaded)

Climate Impacts and Adaptation

3.203 Work by the UK Climate Impacts Programme provides four scenarios for possible future climate in Scotland (Hulme and Jenkins, 1998). These suggest that over the next century:

• Scotland will become warmer. Average temperatures are likely to rise by between 1.2 to 2.6° C, with relatively more warming in winter than summer;
• Annual precipitation is likely to increase by between 5 and 20 % by the end of the next century, with autumn and winter seeing the biggest increases. In contrast, spring amounts will be lower and there will be little change in summer;
• The intensity of rainfall events is likely to increase, leading to increased risk of flooding;
• There may be an increase in the frequency of very severe gales but a decrease in the number of gales overall;
• The water balance is likely to remain favourable;
• Direct short-wave solar radiation is likely to reduce over the next century as a result of increased cloud cover;

3.204 The natural variability of the climate makes it difficult to attach high levels of significance to some of these suggested changes and further work is required. As well as these general trends, there are two possible ‘climate surprises’: the collapse of the ocean circulation in the North Atlantic - with dramatic consequences for European climate, and the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which would increase the rate and magnitude of sea level rise.

3.205 The climate scenarios are based on a coarse model grid, which does not resolve the complex landscape or variations of climate within Scotland (e.g. the trend for wetter weather in the west and drier areas in the east). Work is in hand through the UK Climate Impacts Programme and elsewhere to improve the resolution and accuracy of such climate scenarios.

3.206 A regional assessment of climate change impacts in Scotland was provided in the report, Climate Change: Scottish Implications Scoping Study (Kerr et al., 1999), which consulted 74 experts representing six key socio-economic sectors in Scotland. The report concluded that the likelihood of increasing and more variable precipitation posed the biggest risk to the various socio-economic sectors, particularly transport and water resource management. Any increase in storm intensities or frequencies would be detrimental to all sectors. The management of Scotland’s natural resources is perhaps the sector most affected by climate impacts.

3.207 Work on adapting to climate change is at an early stage in the UK. A report has just been published assessing potential UK adaptation strategies (ERM, 2000) as part of ongoing work co-ordinated by the UK Climate Impacts Programme.

Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

3.208 Measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland are described in the UK draft Climate Change Programme (UK DETR, 2000). The Scottish Executive has agreed to work in partnership with the UK Government to deliver the UK’s Kyoto target of a 12.5% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from a baseline in 1990 and the UK Government’s voluntary domestic target of a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of 20% by 2010.

3.209 On the basis of information currently available, it is not possible to assess precisely the success of existing policies by the UK Government and devolved policies by the Scottish Executive in delivering emissions reductions in Scotland. The UK Government and the devolved administrations within the UK are now funding an annual disaggregated inventory of greenhouse gas emissions, which will enable a better evaluation of the impact of policies introduced by the Scottish Executive to mitigate Scottish greenhouse gas emissions.

Energy

3.210 The mix of power generation in Scotland is diverse: In 1997, nuclear predominated with a 42% share of generation, followed by coal (29%), gas (18%), and hydropower, renewable and other sources (11%) making up a total generation capacity of 42 terrawatt-hours per year. Scotland is a net electricity exporter to England and Wales and exports are planned to Northern Ireland.

3.211 The energy sector contributed 28% of Scotland’s total greenhouse gas emissions, which was a slight rise from the emissions in 1990. This rise, partly due to increased exports of coal-fired electricity to England and Wales, contrasts sharply with the rest of the UK where emission have fallen because of the move from coal to gas for electricity generation (Scottish Executive, 2000).

3.212 Energy policy is a reserved matter for the UK Government but the promotion of renewable energy is executively devolved, so Scottish Ministers can set separate renewable energy targets for Scotland. The UK Government has set a target of producing 10% of UK energy generation from renewable sources by 2010. In Scotland, which has one of the best potentials for renewable energy in Europe, the Scottish Executive proposes to increase current generation by renewable energy to about 17.5% by 2010.

3.213 The implementation of the Integrated Pollution Prevention Control (IPPC) Directive will oblige regulated sites to use energy efficiently and the Government expects it will provide impetus for further uptake of Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants. Scotland has around 11% of the installed capacity of CHP in the UK. The UK Government has a target to deliver 10,000 MW of CHP in the UK by 2010 and the Scottish Executive is considering how best to stimulate further CHP.

3.214 The Department of Trade and Industry expects forthcoming changes in the electricity trading market to have a slightly detrimental impact on the development of renewable energy sources and the demand for CHP.

3.215 The use of nuclear power, which provides about 40% of energy generated in Scotland, is likely to decline over the next three decades as power stations are due for closure. There is no agreement at present as to how best to replace this generating capacity.

Transport

3.216 Transport accounted for about 10% of Scottish greenhouse gas emissions in 1995. Scotland has over 53,000 kilometres of public roads, of which 20% are main roads and 80% minor. Outwith the populated central belt and eastern coastal fringes, road remains the main form of transport, coupled to the trade and communication networks formed by ferry services between the Scottish mainland and island communities and within island groups. Scotland also has over 4000 kilometres of railway track and associated infrastructure, the bulk of which lies in the populated central belt. Use of the railways by the public and for freight traffic is increasing.

3.217 One of the main policies for cutting emissions from the transport sector has been fuel taxation, increasing year-on-year above the rate of inflation. This policy was rescinded this year, partly in response to increasingly strong feelings, particularly in rural areas, that increasing fuel prices have a disproportionate effect where alternative transport is not available. The Scottish Executive provided over £14 million between 1998 and 2000 to mitigate the most adverse effects of high rural fuel prices.

3.218 The Scottish Executive recently published their plan for transport in Scotland, entitled Travel Choices in Scotland, which outlines measures for tackling traffic congestion, improving transport choices and reducing emissions. Local authorities will have a key role by developing local transport strategies such as partnerships for bus and freight transport, cycling and walking initiatives, and workplace parking charges. Changing attitudes to transport is perceived as one of the biggest difficulties to be overcome.

3.219 Several urban transit schemes hold much promise for reducing congestion and thus greenhouse gas emissions, such as the Park and Ride Development (Aberdeen), Rapid Transit Bus and Route Action Plans (Glasgow), Greenways and the Crossrail Project (Edinburgh).

Business

3.220 In 1997, Scotland had nearly 300,000 enterprises, of which 2000 were large, employing over 250 workers. The economy of Scotland, like that of the UK, has moved away from manufacturing and towards services, including retail and finance. In 1995, services contributed nearly 65% of Scottish GDP and employed about 75% of the workers. Manufacturing contributed 20% of GDP and construction industries a further 6.5%. Other sectors, including agriculture, forestry and fishing; mining, oil and gas extraction; and electricity, gas and water provision, each accounted for less than 5% of GDP.

3.221 The business community generated about 16% of greenhouse gas emissions in 1995, which was a reduction from emissions in 1990. The two primary policies for reducing emissions further are the implementation of the EC Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC) Directive over the next 7 years and the Climate Change Levy. The IPPC Directive requires all qualifying sites to obtain authorisation for emissions from the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA).

3.222 The Climate Change Levy, which is a reserved matter for the UK Government, is an energy tax, with its revenue recycled into reduced employers’ costs for employing staff. The Government expects the package to be broadly neutral for both the manufacturing and service sectors. The Government has negotiated agreements with the most energy intensive sectors, offering discounted levy rates in exchange for a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Renewable energy sources are exempt.

3.223 The UK Government is working with an Emissions Trading Group, consisting of around 40 major companies with the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and the Advisory Committee on Business and the Environment (ACBE), to develop a UK carbon trading scheme. It is proposed that the trading scheme would be open to all companies operating in the UK and would run alongside the Climate Change Levy, related negotiated agreements and the IPPC energy efficiency regulation. There may be scope for a UK trading scheme to be linked bilaterally to schemes in other countries (UK DETR, 2000).

3.224 In Scotland, 29% of emission from methane comes from waste. The Scottish Executive has adopted the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) National Waste Strategy, which puts emphasis on waste reduction before recycling and recovery, and final disposal only when other methods are inappropriate. This will reduce the amount of waste disposed in landfill. The Packaging Directive requires approximately 0.5 Mt of Scottish packaging to be recycled (Scottish Executive, 2000).

Domestic

3.225 The domestic sector accounted for about 8% of total emissions. The Scottish population is expected to remain at around 5 million over the next couple of decades, though demographic shifts will increase the numbers of middle-aged and older people. Regional differences in housing needs across the country are marked. There are approximately 2.1 million dwellings, of which two thirds were built after the Second World War. The poor quality of some housing stock is widely acknowledged and has ramifications far beyond the climate change sphere.

3.226 High fuel consumption in Scottish housing reflects the low level of thermal efficiency and the cool climate. Less than 1 in 3 homes has all of central heating, adequate insulation, and double-glazing. Over 9 out of 10 homes were built before the introduction of improved energy efficiency standards. While many new houses are being built to higher thermal standards, the turnover of stock is low so existing housing needs to be improved.

3.227 Initiatives by the Scottish Executive to mitigate the worst effects of poor housing include the Warm Deal, to provide home insulation measures for low-income households, and the Home Energy Conservation Act (HECA) to stimulate energy efficiency. The Building Regulations relating to energy efficiency of new buildings are currently being revised.

3.228 Increasing public awareness of energy efficiency remains a priority, though current low energy prices do not provide a strong incentive for active energy management.

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

3.229 Agriculture, forestry and land use accounted for around 36% of total Scottish emissions in 1995. Preliminary estimates suggest that Scotland provides around 16% of UK methane emissions and more than half of carbon dioxide emissions from the countryside.

3.230 Scotland’s soils have a high carbon content so land cover change affecting these soils has the potential for significant emissions. Scotland has around 50% of the UK carbon sink capacity and represents an important UK carbon store. Practices such as peat drainage lead to loss of soil carbon, as do others, particularly intensive agriculture and forestry.

3.231 The recently published Scottish Forest Strategy may lead to further woodland planting, in the broader context of enhancing recreational opportunities, improving biodiversity, timber production and carbon sequestration. Further research is required on the impact of afforestation on emissions from peaty soils. Nearly 9 million cubic metres of wood are provided by British forests and this will rise to 15 million cubic metres by 2020. About 85% of the requirement for timber, paper and other wood products are imported into Great Britain each year. Timber prices from the Baltic States are very low, which has a negative effect on the profitability of Scottish commercial forestry.

3.232 Agriculture accounts for about 2.5% of total Scottish employment and 8% of the rural workforce. The unfavourable climate and soil conditions in much of Scotland, tied to the remoteness from main markets, make viable farming a difficult task. The support framework provided by the European Common Agricultural Policy is a vital component of income for the majority of producers. This subsidy system also influences land prices and thus land use throughout Scotland.

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