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Climate Change: North Atlantic Comparisons

NORTHERN IRELAND

Introduction

3.183 The sources of information about Northern Ireland are the draft UK Climate Change Programme (UK DETR, 2000) and sectoral policy papers on energy (Northern Ireland Department of Economic Development, 1999), transport (Northern Ireland Office, 1999) and home energy conservation (Northern Ireland Housing Executive, 1999).

Figure 3.8 Outline map of Northern Ireland (shaded)

Climate Impacts and Adaptation

3.184 Four future climate scenarios have been provided for Northern Ireland under the UK Climate Impacts Programme (Hulme & Jenkins, 1998). The scenarios are based on different assumptions about the rate of change of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. They predict an increase in mean annual temperature for Northern Ireland of 0.8 to 2.0°C by 2050. Mean annual precipitation is predicted to increase by 4-5% by 2050, with most of the increase occurring in the autumn and winter. Sea level is predicted to rise by 12-67 cm.

3.185 There has as yet been no systematic regional assessment of climate change impacts in Northern Ireland, though UKCIP have recently suggested (UKCIP, 2000) that such a study should be done to complement those already completed for Scotland, Wales and English regions.

Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

3.186 Measures to mitigate emissions in Northern Ireland are described in the UK draft Climate Change Programme (UK DETR, 2000). The first step for Northern Ireland is to develop appropriate facilities for providing an accurate inventory for all greenhouse gases emitted in Northern Ireland and to assess the effects of UK-wide measures on the region. This will provide an understanding of where devolved policy can most effectively contribute to the UK's Kyoto, EU and domestic targets.

Energy

3.187 The energy sector contributed 27% of Northern Ireland's greenhouse gas emissions in 1995, the largest source along with the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector. Almost all these emissions derive from power generation, as there are no fuel processing plants. Northern Ireland has no nuclear power and, at present, limited renewables.

3.188 The natural gas infrastructure has only recently been installed, with one of the two main power stations converting in 1996. Natural gas is being installed for the industrial and domestic market. Indigenous reserves include lignite, yet to be developed, but there are no commercially exploitable quantities of oil and gas (Northern Ireland Department of Economic Development, 1999).

3.189 Electrical generation represents over one third of Northern Ireland's greenhouse gas emissions. A report on the potential of renewable energy suggests that 8% of electricity could be generated from such sources by 2010.

3.190 The basis of energy policy remains security and diversity of supply and the encouragement of the clean production and use of energy. The power generator NIE Ltd. has been required to contract specified amounts of electricity from non-fossil fuel sources under NFFO Orders. The use of CHP is also being promoted.

3.191 The energy market was liberalised in line with the EC Directive in 1999 and opened progressively with the objective of an all-Ireland market. Increased electrical and gas interconnectivity with both Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland will be forthcoming and is likely to have a major impact on greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector.

Transport

3.192 Transport in Northern Ireland is predominantly based on cars, buses and lorries. The road network will continue to carry the vast bulk of freight and passengers within Northern Ireland for the foreseeable future. Car ownership continues to rise; between 1995 and 1997, the number of licensed vehicles rose by 10%. Good access to the seaports and airports is also seen as critical to future prosperity.

3.193 The recent white paper, 'A New Deal for Transport', is generating a debate on how to respond to transport needs in the future. The paper includes consideration of climate change in the context of sustainable transport options. It also proposes a series of specific measures to help develop a more integrated, balanced and effective transport system for Northern Ireland. The transport strategy will aim to address the four components of an Integrated Transport Policy:

• Integration within and between different types of transport;
• Integration with the environment;
• Integration with land use planning;
• Integration with policies for education, health and wealth creation.

3.194 Financial instruments to influence vehicle use, such as taxation on fuel, remain the preserve of the UK Government.

Domestic

3.195 The domestic sector is the second largest source of emissions of greenhouse gases. Until recently the largest public sector landlord, the Northern Ireland Housing Executive, has pursued a fuel neutral policy towards home heating. However, as Northern Ireland's Energy Conservation Authority, it is expected in future to prefer natural gas for home heating. Where gas is not available, oil will be installed in place of solid fuel heaters.

3.196 The Home Energy Conservation report (Northern Ireland Housing Executive, 1999) discusses practicable and cost-effective measures considered likely to result in an improvement of energy efficiency totalling 34% in residential accommodation built before 1996. The switch in domestic fuel use from solid fuels towards oil and gas will contribute towards this challenging target.

3.197 New Building Regulations introduced in 1999 are designed to ensure better integration of energy efficiency into construction projects. Further energy efficiency measures will be implemented in conjunction with initiatives such as the UK Energy Efficiency Best Practice Programme.

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

3.198 Agriculture, forestry and fishing are important elements of the Northern Irish economy, together accounting for 4.7% of the region's GDP in 1997. Agricultural land occupies 77% of the region's total land area, a larger share than in either the UK as a whole (70%) or the Republic of Ireland (66%). Proportionately agriculture's contribution to employment in Northern Ireland is the highest in all UK regions. Farms are mostly family-run with an average farm size of 36 ha. In common with other regions in developed countries there has been a long-term downward trend in the number of farms and average farm size has increased gradually. Three quarters of farmland is under permanent pasture; dairy and beef production is the most important sector.

3.199 EU policy and the regime of subsidies most heavily influence agricultural production. Seventy per cent of the farmland in Northern Ireland has been designated as Less Favoured Areas, within which farms can benefit from special financial support. Currently Northern Ireland's farmers face an economic crisis caused by the impact of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) on export markets and low prices for agricultural produce.

3.200 There have been no specific greenhouse gas mitigation measures in the agriculture sector, though as reported for many other countries in the study region, some of the policies implemented to resolve general environmental problems would tend to reduce agricultural emissions of greenhouse gases.

3.201 Forest occupies 6% of Northern Ireland, compared with 10% in the UK as a whole and 8% in the Republic of Ireland. In the decade to 1995-96 the forested area in Northern Ireland increased by 14% and this steady expansion is expected to continue. Only 2% of the forest is broadleaved and of the plantings made by the state Forest Service in 1995-96, 75% were Sitka spruce. Sea and inland fisheries also make an important contribution to the regional economy. Landings by the Northern Ireland fleet made up 4% of the total value of UK landings and support a regional fish processing industry.

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