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Climate Change: North Atlantic Comparisons

Chapter two national contexts

Introduction

2.1 Chapter two explores the national context within which climate change policies are being developed and implemented in the study countries. The aim is to illustrate the similarities and differences between Scotland and the study countries using a series of common indicators relating to the state of society, the economy and the environment. A common framework for analysing environmental problems is that of: driving forces — pressures — state — impacts — responses, developed by the European Environment Agency from an Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) framework. This approach, used only loosely here, illustrates the similarities and differences between the countries. This chapter considers some of the driving forces, pressures and states associated with climate issues. The impacts of climate and policies to respond to climate within individual countries are described in Chapter Three.

DRIVING FORCES

Political

2.2 This study focuses on Scotland, Ireland, Northern Ireland, and the Nordic countries: Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Iceland. These countries on the north and north-west periphery of Europe fall neatly into two political groupings.

The Nordic Countries

2.3 The Nordic region comprises five countries; Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Iceland and Finland, and three autonomous areas; Greenland and the Faeroe Islands, which are autonomous regions of Denmark, and Åland, which is an autonomous region of Finland.

2.4 The Nordic countries have well-developed political and economic links stretching back as far as the Viking era from c.800AD and more recently since the formation of the Nordic Council in 1952. The Nordic Council was formed between four of the five Nordic countries, with the fifth, Finland, joining in 1955. This co-operation between the Nordic parliaments was strengthened with the establishment of the Nordic Council of Ministers in 1971, which focuses on co-operation between the Nordic Governments, for which the five Prime Ministers assume overall responsibility.

2.5 The Nordic countries comprise the northern flank of Europe though Iceland and Norway are not members of the European Union. Apart from the Nordic Council, regional co-operation in the Nordic area is mediated by organisations such as the Baltic Sea Co-operation, Barents Co-operation, the Arctic Council, and the Vestnordic Council.

Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland

2.6 Historically, Ireland and Scotland have had links with the Nordic countries since the Viking era. Viking traders founded many of the major Irish towns, such as Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Waterford, and settled in Shetland, Orkney, Caithness and the Hebridean Islands of Scotland. The main regional focus for the Republic of Ireland is membership of the European Union.

2.7 Northern Ireland and Scotland have devolved administrations within the United Kingdom, which is a member of the European Union. The United Kingdom Government retains power on reserved matters in Scotland and Northern Ireland (Table 2.1). The political focus for Scotland is turning increasingly to the regional dimension within the European Union, exemplified by the Wexford Conference of Regional Ministers and Political Leaders, and links with the Irish and Nordic periphery of Europe.

TABLE 2.1 Key devolved powers in Scotland

Source: Scottish Executive, 2000

Economy

2.8 The study countries are all committed to economic development through open market policies. Economic development has been characterised by continuing growth in recent decades interspersed with cyclical recessions, the latest of which was during the early 1990s. A comparison of key indicators provides a useful comparative guide between the countries.

2.9 One measure of relative wealth is that of gross domestic product per head. It is clear from Figure 2.1 that the Nordic countries as a group have a higher GDP/head than the United Kingdom and Ireland. Within the United Kingdom, Northern Ireland and Scotland have a GDP/capita below the UK average. Ireland has and continues to have the most pronounced economic growth in recent years.

Figure 2.1 GDP and GDP/capita in the study countries

Source: OECD, 2000; Scottish Economic Statistics, 2000; Northern Ireland Statistics, 1999. Note that the national figures produced by the OECD may not be exactly comparable to the figures produced by the Scottish and Northern Irish Statistics.

2.10 A comparison of economic profiles shows many similarities between the countries (Figure 2.2). Services are by far the most important element of the economy followed by industry and, depending on the country, primary produce or construction. In Iceland primary produce accounts for nearly 10% of national wealth because of its reliance on the fishing industry.

Figure 2.2 Sectoral share of the each national economy

Source: OECD, 1999; Scottish Economic Statistics, 2000; Northern Ireland Statistics, 1999. Note that the national figures produced by the OECD may not be exactly comparable to the figures provided by the Scottish and Northern Irish Statistics.

Society

2.11 Sweden has the largest population with nearly 9 million, followed by Denmark, Scotland, Norway and Finland all with around 5 million. Ireland is a little smaller with just over 3 million and Northern Ireland has a population of approximately 1 million. Iceland has a population of less then 300,000, while the Faeroes Islands have a population of less than 50,000 (Figure 2.4).

2.12 The large land area of Norway, Sweden and Finland stretching into the Arctic ensures that their population density is very low. However, the population tends to be concentrated in the south; for example, 85% of Sweden's population lives in the southern half of the country. The split between urban and rural populations perhaps provides a better description of the spatial structure of society, which suggests that pronounced urbanisation has taken place in the study countries but substantial rural populations remain.

2.13 In terms of population density, Scotland lies between the more densely populated states of Denmark and Northern Ireland and the remaining countries. Population trends in all the study countries are for increases in population over the next ten years, in contrast to the slight reduction expected in Scotland.

2.14 This snapshot of the study countries indicates that the Nordic countries and Ireland have many similarities to Scotland in terms of population, urbanisation, economies and regional political drivers. However, the Nordic region is generally more wealthy than both Scotland and Northern Ireland. Ireland has traditionally been less wealthy, but its recent economic performance has brought it onto a par with the United Kingdom average, which is a little higher than that of Scotland or Northern Ireland.

Figure 2.3 The land area of the study countries

Source: OECD, 1999; Scottish Economic Statistics, 2000; Northern Ireland Statistics, 1999

Figure 2.4 The population and population density of the study countries

Source: OECD, 1999; Scottish Economic Statistics, 2000; Northern Ireland Statistics, 1999

Environmental pressures

2.15 The drive for economic development leads to the emission of greenhouse gases, which are the prime human influence on the global climate system. This section summarises the present emissions from the study countries. The dominant human activity for emitting greenhouse gases is fossil-fuel combustion. Other contributing activities include agriculture, land-use changes, waste disposal in landfill and certain industrial processes.

2.16 Greenhouse gas emissions from all the study countries apart from the United Kingdom have risen since 1990. Of these, the percentage change of emissions from Iceland and Ireland is within either the Kyoto or European Union burden-sharing agreements but all other countries currently exceed their targets (EEA, 2000).

2.17 Total EU emissions of the three main greenhouse gases fell by 1% between 1990 and 1996, while GDP increased substantially. This indicates some success in de-coupling greenhouse gas emission from economic growth. Nevertheless, the continued projected economic growth suggests that further policies need to be implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet the Kyoto targets in 2008-2012.

2.18 Figure 2.5 shows the emissions of carbon dioxide, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of the total, using sectors identified in the UNFCCC in-depth reviews for each country’s Second National Communication. The figures illustrate the relatively important role played by the energy sector in the carbon-fuel-rich countries of Denmark, Ireland and Northern Ireland and the relatively important role of transport emissions in Iceland. Sweden and Finland have a relatively larger component of heavy industry and this reflects the proportionately greater emissions from this sector.

Figure 2.5 Carbon dioxide emissions by source sector (as defined by the UNFCCC) both in absolute terms and as a percentage of total national emission.

Source: UNFCCC in-depth reviews of study countries

2.19 Table 2.1 provides the broad sectoral division of methane emissions between the energy sector, agriculture and those derived from waste. Data are not available for Iceland and Ireland in the UNFCCC inventory (UNFCCC, 1999h). Countries with substantial agricultural sectors such as Denmark and Sweden have relatively high emissions from this sector, while for those with small agricultural sectors the emissions from waste are relatively more important.

Table 2.1 Anthropogenic methane emissions by source category, 1997 (%)

Source: (UNFCCC, 1999h)

2.20 Table 2.2 illustrates the division of nitrous oxide emissions between sectors. The agricultural sector predominates, followed by either the industrial sector in the case of the UK and Norway or the energy sector in Sweden and Finland.

Table 2.2 Anthropogenic nitrous oxide emissions by source category, 1997 (%)

Source: (UNFCCC, 1999h)

2.21 Finally, table 2.3 displays the absolute emissions of the ‘industrial’ gases in 1997 according to the UNFCCC inventory.

Table 2.3 Total emissions of hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorcarbons and sulphur hexafluoride in 1997

Source: (UNFCCC, 1999h)

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