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Climate Change: North Atlantic Comparisons

Chapter one Introduction

Aims of the study

1.1 This study aims to provide a comparison of climate change issues in Scotland with those in Ireland, Northern Ireland and the Nordic countries. The comparison assesses the knowledge and perception of climate change issues and the different approaches adopted by each country to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and climate impacts. It seeks to identify possible opportunities for future co-operation and links on climate change issues between Scotland and the study countries.

1.2 The study comprised a desk-based review of the available information from the member countries and international agencies, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat and the European Environment Agency. In addition, short visits were undertaken to meet key contacts in the member countries.

The study in context

1.3 The Nordic countries of Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark comprise the northern flank of Europe. Historically, Ireland and Scotland have had links with the Nordic countries since the beginning of the Viking era c.800AD. The Norse settled in Shetland, Orkney, Caithness and the Hebridean Islands of Scotland, while Norse traders founded many of the major Irish towns, such as Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Waterford. Norse settlers from Scandinavia, bringing Celtic people from the British Isles, founded Iceland in the ninth century.

1.4 Scotland, which has a devolved administration within the United Kingdom, is now turning its political focus to the regional dimension within the European Union, exemplified by the recent Wexford Conference of Regional Ministers and Political Leaders. This has focused political attention on the Irish and Nordic periphery of Europe. In climatic terms, these countries are also those with most similarities to Scotland. It is appropriate therefore to compare approaches to climate change issues between these countries.

Report Structure

1.5 Chapter One provides a statement of the aims of the report and a review of the developments in climate change issues in Scotland, the UK and Europe.

1.6 Chapter Two provides a brief overview of social, economic and environmental indicators from the different study countries. These indicators provide the broad context against which this report compares the different national approaches to climate change issues.

1.7 Chapter Three presents the national climate-related information gathered during this project. For each country the chapter details the existing understanding of climate impacts and the factors determining the greenhouse gas emissions from five key socio-economic sectors. The sectors are: Energy; Transport; Business; Domestic; and Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.

1.8 The information set out in Chapter Three provides the basis for the regional comparison of climate change issues detailed in Chapter Four. Measures associated with the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions focus on issues of particular interest to Scotland in each sector. These are:

• Energy: energy mix and efficiency, taxation, use of renewable energy;
• Business: taxation, minimisation of waste;
• Transport: public and private transport infrastructure, modal switching;
• Domestic: building regulations, energy efficiency policies;
• Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing: land use patterns and drivers.

1.9 Chapter Five draws together the information set out in Chapter Four with the policies described in the Scottish Climate Change Programme to reflect on the Scottish implications of this regional analysis. Chapter Six concludes the report by identifying possible opportunities for collaboration between Scotland and the Nordic Countries, Ireland and Northern Ireland.

1.10 One important output of this study is a compendium of references, organisations and contacts most concerned with climate change issues in each country. The Annex provides an overview of these organisations and their work relevant to this study.

Climate change issues in Europe

Climate Policies

1.11 Climate change presents policy makers with a challenging problem. The prime human influence on global climate is the emission of greenhouse gases. Evidence suggests that increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases emitted by society have contributed to the considerable increase, in historic terms, in global mean temperature seen over the last century. It is widely recognised that policy action is needed to curb emissions. Yet these gases are emitted from the very processes that have enabled industrialisation and economic development.

1.12 The problem facing the global community is to devise climate mitigation policies that reduce human-induced climate impacts to an acceptably low level while maintaining social and economic development. The solution requires a de-coupling of greenhouse gas emissions, particularly those associated with energy use, from social and economic development.

1.13 European nations and institutions have been at the forefront of the climate change agenda. The European Parliament adopted a resolution on the necessity of a climate policy as early as 1986. The European Commission followed with a communication in 1988 to the Council of Ministers on the science of climate change and possible courses of action. This coincided with the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organisation. The IPCC has since provided the scientific basis for statements that increasingly have emphasised society's influence on the global climate system.

1.14 In 1990, the European Union took the first steps towards mitigating human-induced climate change when its environment and energy ministers agreed to stabilise the European Union's emissions of carbon dioxide at their 1990 level by the year 2000. However, the agreement was not legally binding and was conditional on equivalent measures being taken by other industrialised nations. The need for globally binding agreements was apparent and contributed towards the determination to ensure tangible outputs from the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (the 'Earth Summit') in Rio de Janeiro during 1992.

1.15 Before the 'Earth Summit', the European Commission set out a strategy for reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 12% from a 1990 baseline by the year 2000. This work formed the groundwork for the international negotiations at the 'Earth Summit'. Measures included the need for:

• A regulatory environment for efficient use of existing energy sources (the SAVE Programme)
• Increasing the market share of renewable energy sources (the ALTENER Programme)
• Consideration of an energy/carbon dioxide tax
• Monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union

1.16 One success of the 'Earth Summit' was the signing and subsequent adoption in 1994 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Subsequent negotiations through the Conference of the Parties to the Convention (COP) led to the signing of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, which set legally binding targets for industrialised nations to reduce greenhouse gases (Table 1.1).

Table 1.1 National emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol and EU burden sharing agreements and an indication of progress towards the targets in 1996

Source: EEA (2000), "Environmental Signals 2000"

1.17 Under the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union committed itself to an 8% reduction from 1990 levels during the period 2008-2012, though agreement on how this should be shared amongst member states was only achieved in 1998. Norway and Iceland, who are not members of the European Union, negotiated their own emission targets at Kyoto. While the Kyoto Protocol has yet to be ratified, it has galvanised nations into analysing their net greenhouse gas emissions and related socio-economic policies.

1.18 Commentators have noted the discrepancy between the ambitious international emission reduction targets set by the European Union and actions implemented to attain them (e.g. Grubb, 1995). This appears to be a consequence, in part, of the distribution of power between the European Commission, the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers, and the difficulty of taking unanimous Council decisions on measures that would lead to effective climate policy (e.g. Böckem, 1998).

1.19 As a result of these institutional problems, European nations have developed a predominantly uncoordinated series of climate programmes at national rather than pan-European level. It is the aim of this project to examine the national climate policies of the northern European countries with social, economic and environmental similarities to Scotland. This assessment provides an opportunity to explore the links and opportunities for regional collaboration on climate policy.

Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

1.20 Climate mitigation is the attempt to minimise human-induced climate change by stabilising and eventually reducing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere (Box 1.1). It is widely agreed that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will lead to human-induced interference with the climate system, which in turn will lead to climate impacts on society such as, for instance, changes in crop yields or more frequent flooding. However, the process of translating global greenhouse gas emissions into the future response of the global climate system remains uncertain, not least because of the natural variability inherent in the system. At a result, at present, there is no consensus concerning the level at which greenhouse gas concentrations should be stabilised, nor on the related and the more contentious issue of what is an acceptable level of climate impacts on society.

1.21 The IPCC has made considerable efforts to explore the likely global climate that would result from different atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Their work also provides evidence of how greenhouse gas emissions must change through time to stabilise atmospheric gas concentrations at specified levels (Figure 1.1). It is apparent that to stabilise concentrations at a given level, higher emissions in early decades require lower emissions later on (IPCC, 1995).

1.22 In this context, efforts by countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol can be seen as simply the first step towards further, more stringent mitigation policy that will be required subsequently to avoid human-induced climate change with an unacceptable level of impact on society.

Figure 1.1 Examples of different carbon dioxide emission profiles through time that lead to stabilisation in the atmosphere at concentrations of 450, 550, 650, 750 and 1000ppmv. There are numerous possible pathways (grey dashed and solid lines) for emissions profiles to reach specific stabilisation levels, but in all cases the higher the emissions early on the larger the reduction in emissions required later on. The solid black line marked IS92a indicates the emissions profile resulting from the IPCC IS92a population and economic scenarios for the world from 1990-2100, which assume no implementation of specific measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

Source: IPCC, 1995

Climate Impacts and Adaptation

1.23 In planning an effective response to the threat of climate change, society must consider both the likely direct impacts on social, economic and environmental systems and possible means of adapting to future climate. Climate change resulting from human-induced interference is expected to have widespread consequences, including:

• sea level rise;
• changes in rainfall patterns;
• temperature increases;
• changes in the incidence of climate extremes, such as storminess.

1.24 The European Union has suggested that a 'sustainable' target for climate change is an increase in average global temperature of only 2° C above the pre-industrial level by 2100 (EEA, 1999). This is consistent with the UNFCCC-suggested limit for acceptable change of 0.1° C per decade. Observations suggest that global temperatures have already risen by 0.3-0.6° C since the latter part of the nineteenth century (Fig. 1.2). In Europe similar increases in temperature have been observed though natural variation amongst regions is considerable.

1.25 The IPCC has led the work on global climate change impacts through its periodic Assessment Reports in 1990 and 1995 (IPCC, 1995). Its Third Assessment Report is due in 2001. While the IPCC provides a global overview of climate change impacts, it is apparent that national climate strategies require a focus on local socio-economic and environmental factors. The attention on climate impacts and adaptation has consequently shifted to national Governments and regional institutions.

Figure 1.2 Observed deviations in the annual mean temperature for the World and for Europe from 1856 to 1998.

Source: CRU, Hadley Centre 1999

UK developments on climate change

Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

1.26 Under Kyoto and EU burden sharing agreements, the UK must reduce its baseline emissions of a basket of 6 greenhouse gases in 1990 by 12.5% from 216 MtC (million tonnes carbon equivalent) to 189 MtC per annum averaged over 2008-2012. In addition, the UK Government has a voluntary domestic goal to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions to 20% beneath the baseline.

1.27 The UK Government responded to the Kyoto Protocol by consulting widely to stimulate debate on how the UK might meet its Kyoto and EU burden-sharing targets and the UK Government's domestic target. Following devolution, greenhouse gas inventories for component countries of the United Kingdom were calculated separately ('disaggregated') for the years 1990 and 1995. This disaggregation allows the development of separate regional projections for future emissions and will enable a better understanding of the effects of reserved and devolved policy measures. Disaggregated emissions will be published annually starting with data for 1998.

1.28 Measures on how best to use economic instruments to improve the industrial and commercial use of energy and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases were considered in Lord Marshall's 1998 report, Economic instruments and the business use of energy (Marshall, 1998). While there was consensus on the need for economic instruments, there was little agreement on how best to implement them. The main conclusions were that a mixed approach of the economic instruments of tradable emissions permits and/or taxes, coupled to existing regulations and voluntary and negotiated agreements, was the appropriate way forward. Similarly, the Advisory Committee on Business and the Environment's eighth progress report agreed on the need for a long-term partnership between Government and business, and the need for business to be more involved in stimulating innovation, new technology, and harnessing the future commercial opportunities.

1.29 The UK Government responded to the climate mitigation debate by publishing a draft Climate Change Programme in March 2000 setting out an integrated package of policies and measures that aim to deliver the UK's Kyoto and domestic targets and move the UK towards a lower carbon economy. In parallel, the Scottish Executive published its draft Climate Change Programme in March 2000.

Climate Impacts and Adaptation

1.30 The potential effects of climate change on the UK were assessed in 1996. This review suggested climate change could benefit some sectors, such as tourism, forestry and parts of the agriculture industry, but could be detrimental and costly to many others, particularly those reliant on a good water supply. Economic effects of climate change were considered in an analysis of the unusually warm year of 1995. The study suggested that the UK economy is sensitive to the weather and so would be affected by climate change (Palutikof et al., 1997).

1.31 In 1997, the Department of Environment, Transport and the Regions (DETR) established the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) to provide advice to public and private-sector organisations about climate change impacts. The UKCIP has produced scenarios of climate change, based on work by the Hadley Centre, and socio-economic development in the UK (Hulme and Jenkins, 1998). By involving key stakeholders, the UKCIP has been instrumental in improving understanding of the vulnerability of the UK to climate change, through regional and sectoral studies.

1.32 The DETR has also published a set of 34 indicators of climate change and its impacts for the UK. These indicators show that the first effects of climate change are already being observed in the UK. It is clear that the work on adapting to climate change is at an early stage, though a report has just been published assessing potential UK adaptation strategies (ERM, 2000).

Scottish Developments on Climate change

1.33 Scotland has a devolved administration within the United Kingdom. Actions to attain the Kyoto Protocol agreed targets must be equitably spread across the UK. The devolution legislation therefore includes powers that could be used to ensure that the devolved administrations contribute to the UK's target through action in policy areas for which they are responsible.

1.34 In 1998 the then Scottish Office organised and reported on two workshops addressing the Scottish implications of climate change. The first considered the direct impacts of climate change on Scotland and the necessary information required for decision-makers to plan appropriate responses (Text Box 1.2). The second addressed the actions that might be needed to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland. One outcome of these workshops was the letting of a contract to scope the implications of climate change for Scotland, the results of which were reported in Climate Change: Scottish Implications Scoping Study (Kerr et al. 1999).

1.35 The Climate Change: Scottish Implications Scoping Study examined the implications of climate change for six socio-economic sectors by interviewing stakeholders and analysing their responses. The results suggest that climate change is not the primary driver of change in any sector but it has wide-ranging implications in virtually all sectors. The key climate concerns across the different sectors in Scotland are the changing precipitation patterns and the potential for increased flooding, along with the possibility of increased storminess. The sectors most at risk are those providing services across wide geographical areas, such as transport and energy transmission companies and local authorities.

1.36 The work also suggested that policies for emission reductions are a much higher priority in most sectors over the next few years than strategies for adapting to climate change. The links between drivers of change in different sectors and forthcoming emission reduction strategies points to some mutually beneficial 'win-win' situations. These occur when the driving changes in a sector force a reduction in emissions without prior intent; for example, policies to enhance social inclusion such as improving public housing result in houses with better thermal and energy efficiencies, which also reduce emissions from the housing sector.

1.37 A wide consultation process by the Scottish Executive informed the development of the Scottish Climate Change Programme (Scottish Executive, 2000), which was published for consultation during March 2000 in conjunction with the full United Kingdom draft Climate Change Programme. A summary of the existing and proposed actions within the Scottish Programme is included in Table 1.3.

Table 1.3 Proposed Scottish measures in the draft Climate Change Programme 2000

Source: UK Climate Change: Draft UK Programme (p.144)

1.38 Other related work has included seminars focusing on the implications of climate change for forestry (Institute of Chartered Foresters, 2000); the future of the Scottish environment (Scottish Natural Heritage/Royal Society of Edinburgh, 2000); and the role of local authorities in Scotland (Scottish Executive et al., 2000). Several climate studies commissioned by the Scottish Executive are also in progress:

• A more detailed examination of regional climate scenarios for Scotland;
• An assessment of the impact of climate change on snowfall patterns in Scotland;
• A review of the level of protection offered by existing flood prevention schemes;
• An assessment of the implications of the UKCIP climate change scenarios for flooding in Scotland.

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