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Climate Change: North Atlantic Comparisons

Executive Summary

Introduction

1. This Report was commissioned to gain a clearer understanding of possible opportunities for future co-operation and links on climate change issues with countries of a similar socio-economic and environmental character to Scotland. The study countries are Scotland, Ireland, Northern Ireland and the Nordic Countries comprising Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Iceland.

2. The study was undertaken between January and August 2000 as a predominantly desk-based review of information produced by the study countries and international agencies. The work also included short visits to meet key contacts in some of the study countries. The report begins with a review of climate policy developments in Scotland, the UK, and Europe, and briefly considers the socio-economic and environmental context of the study countries. The socio-economic issues that impinge on climate policy are detailed on a country-by-country basis. This information is synthesised into a regional comparison of climate policy within different socio-economic sectors. Finally, the opportunities for links and future co-operation between Scotland and the study countries are developed from this regional comparison.

The Study in context

3. Scotland, Northern Ireland, Ireland and the Nordic Countries, which comprise the northern and north-western flank of Europe, have historical links stretching back to the Viking era from 800 AD. The Norse settled in Shetland, Orkney, Caithness and the Hebridean Islands of Scotland, while Norse traders founded many of the major Irish towns, such as Dublin, Cork and Limerick. Norse settlers from Scandinavia, bringing Celtic people from the British Isles, founded Iceland in the ninth century.

4. Today the study countries have many similarities in their economic, social and environmental profiles. They also share a common regional political driver. Scotland, for example, is turning increasingly to the regional dimension within the European Union, exemplified by the recent Wexford Conference of Regional Ministers and Political Leaders, and links with the Irish and Nordic periphery of Europe. At a time when the study countries are developing their National Climate Programmes, it is appropriate to explore linkages between the countries to inform the development of local, national and regional climate policies in Scotland and the UK.

Climate impacts and adaptation

5. Regional climate scenarios suggest that the study region faces increasing and more changeable patterns of precipitation in conjunction with rising temperatures. The west of the study area is likely to see the wettest climate while models suggest it will be drier in the more sheltered eastern parts of Sweden and Finland. Wide seasonal and geographical differences in the changing temperatures are expected, particularly where associated with fluctuations in ocean currents. Studies of climate impacts in the Nordic region and Ireland have been hindered thus far by the lack of reliable regional climate scenarios. Similarly, studies of adaptation to climate change in the study countries remain at an early stage.

6. Model results suggest a divergence in climate between the increasingly wet northwestern fringe of Europe and the increasingly continental climate of Southeast England and northern mainland Europe. As a result, this study recommends that the Scottish Executive integrates more closely the results from regional models being developed by National Climate Programmes in the Nordic Countries with those being developed for Scotland by the UK Hadley Centre. The similar climatic context of the study countries also suggests a need to co-ordinate the further development of climate change indicators across the study countries to observe regional trends. Similarly, since the vulnerability of the study countries to the expected climate impacts is likely to be similar, it is recommended that the outputs of national projects exploring adaptation strategies should be shared between the study countries.

Mitigations of Greenhouse Emissions

7. Climate Change Programmes to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions have been or are being developed by all the study countries. Greenhouse gas emissions from all the study countries apart from the United Kingdom have risen since 1990. Of these, the percentage change in emissions from the UK, Iceland and Ireland is within the targets set by either the Kyoto Protocol or the European Union burden-sharing agreements, but all other countries in this study are currently on course to miss their targets.

8. While these national Climate Programmes focus on national or local issues, there is scope for further collaboration on matters of regional interest, particularly in the energy and business sectors. In the energy sector, the ongoing liberalisation of the energy markets within the Nordic Countries and between the UK and Ireland will play a vital role in determining national strategies for meeting Kyoto targets. In the business sector, the development of national emission trading schemes, the trial of Kyoto flexible mechanisms in the Baltic region, and the ongoing implementation of energy or carbon taxes provides a useful benchmark against which to compare the success of similar UK schemes. A recommendation of this study is that the Scottish Executive should contribute to UK involvement and collaboration with the Nordic Council of Ministers on matters of:

• Energy market liberalisation;
• The use of energy and carbon taxation;
• The development of emission trading schemes.

Energy Sector

9. The key regional issues of relevance to climate policy include:

• The liberalisation and interconnectivity of the energy market between the Nordic Countries and between the UK and Ireland;
• The extensive use of energy and carbon taxes in the study countries to influence behaviour of energy generators and consumers;
• The wide variety of energy resources in the study countries. Iceland produces 100% of its electricity and 98% of its space heating from its renewable resources; Norway produces 70% of its stationary energy requirements from renewable resources; Ireland, Northern Ireland, Denmark and Finland use fossil-fuel rich resources; Scotland and Sweden have many similarities with their use of nuclear, hydropower and fossil-fuels.
• The extensive development of combined heat and power (CHP) and district heating schemes in Denmark, Sweden and Finland;
• A feasibility study for exporting 5000GWh of electricity derived from renewable resources through a submarine cable from Iceland to Scotland.

10. Scotland has a similar target for the generation of renewable energy to that of Denmark and the two countries could usefully evaluate each other’s approach to meeting their targets. Likewise, Sweden’s energy sources are similar to those of Scotland. Sweden is intending to decommission its nuclear power stations over the next few years, which will affect national greenhouse gas emissions, so Scotland could usefully gauge these developments in preparation for a reduction in its nuclear capacity in coming decades. The reported feasibility study of a large submarine electricity cable from Iceland to Scotland is of great interest for the future energy market in Scotland. A recommendation of this study is that the Scottish Executive should develop links with Denmark, Sweden and Iceland and appraise these developments in their energy sectors, since they impinge on matters affecting Scottish and UK targets for renewable resources and greenhouse gas emissions.

Transport Sector

11. None of the study countries has found a solution to reduce the growing emissions of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, from the transport sector. There are three main options to limit the growth of greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector: reduce mobility, improve the energy efficiency of each transport activity, or change the fuel mix in transport.

12. The key transport issues of relevance to climate policy in the study countries are:

• Road is the main form of transport in the large rural areas and there are few or no alternatives to car use in these areas;
• There are a number of existing or planned urban transit schemes to reduce car use in the larger conurbations, such as Dublin, Copenhagen and Stockholm;
• High fuel taxation exists in most of the study countries;
• Land-use planning is seen as a crucial means to reduce reliance on the car;
• Countries are reliant on European-wide pressure on vehicle manufacturers to improve fuel economy and continue the introduction of alternative fuels.

13. Local authorities in Scotland developing urban transit schemes could usefully exchange ideas with local authorities in Ireland and the Nordic Countries involved in schemes such as the Dublin Transport Initiative, and schemes in the Copenhagen and Stockholm areas. The common problems found in a number of the study countries, particularly Sweden, concerning the impact of high fuel prices in rural areas suggests that the Scottish Executive should explore whether other countries have adopted approaches to mitigate the resulting adverse effects on rural communities.

14. The main instrument for minimising greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector in all the study countries is by the use of fuel taxation, which is a reserved power in Scotland for the UK Government. Evidence from the study countries suggested that increasing the marginal rates of fuel taxation would reduce emissions from the transport sector, but at an insufficient rate to offset the increasing vehicle traffic forecast over the next few years.

Business Sector

15. Options available to national Governments to influence business behaviour towards mitigating greenhouse gas emissions are financial instruments, regulation, voluntary agreements, and subsidies to support non-market benefits.

16. The key regional climate-related issues in the business sector were:

• The use of financial instruments in the form of energy or carbon taxes by the study countries, some of which are amongst the highest in the world;
• The development of emissions trading schemes within the Nordic Countries and the UK;
• The implementation of the EC IPPC Directive;
• National strategies for waste minimisation, recycling, and landfill gas recovery.

17. Recently, the Norwegian Commission on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading has advised a major shift in climate policy away from taxation and towards a national trading scheme in greenhouse gas emissions. Norway is also likely to push for full use of the flexible mechanisms in the Kyoto Protocol in order to meet its emissions targets under the Protocol. Similarly, the Nordic Council of Ministers are considering testing the Kyoto flexible mechanisms, such as Joint Implementation (JI) and emissions trading, on a project in the Baltic and former East European countries. Respondents to this study suggested that the Nordic Council of Ministers might encourage the participation of neighbouring countries, such as the UK.

18. National waste policies are broadly similar in the study countries and include measures to increase the level of responsibility on producers for dealing with waste, such as waste paper packaging, tyres and cars.

Domestic Sector

19. Attempts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in the domestic (and commercial) sector focus on the efficiency with which energy, in the form of electricity and space heating, is used. Policy instruments focus on improving the energy efficiency of buildings and, at a European level, the electrical efficiency of appliances.

20. Comparison with the study countries suggests that improving energy and thermal efficiency in domestic and commercial buildings is the most important climate-related action available to the Scottish Executive. In this area, the Nordic Countries provide a useful benchmark. The climate in their populated southern regions is close to that of Scotland, but the thermal efficiencies of buildings are much higher. Denmark, in particular, has followed aggressive policies for improving energy efficiency in buildings. The enforcement of energy audits and ratings of existing households appears to have led to increased awareness of energy issues. The Nordic Countries use their full range of financial instruments within the energy sector to recycle tax revenue towards improving energy efficiency. A recommendation of this study is that the Scottish Executive should continue to develop the Scottish Building Regulations to meet Nordic standards and raise awareness of energy issues, such as energy audits of buildings, by exploring the approach adopted by Denmark.

21. Regional and local energy companies dedicated to improving energy efficiency are common in the Nordic countries. Information awareness on energy and energy efficiency issues in Ireland benefits from the one-stop shop approach adopted by the Irish Energy Centre. A recommendation of this study is that the Scottish Executive should develop a similar one-stop shop approach to energy and energy efficiency information akin to the Irish Energy Centre.

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Sector

22. Agriculture is a significant source of emissions of methane and nitrous oxide. None of the study countries have specific policies for mitigating emissions from the agricultural sector, but experience has shown that policies aimed at other objectives have also tended to reduce emissions. There is clearly scope for integrating the objective of mitigating emissions with other agricultural policy objectives and fully exploiting possibilities for 'win-win' situations. Areas where collaborative possibilities exist are the control of nitrate pollution, with relevant agencies in Ireland, Norway and Sweden, and the promotion of biomass energy plantations and organic agriculture in Sweden and Denmark.

23. Forests represent significant sinks for carbon dioxide. While developing national forestry policies to meet the full range of economic, social and environmental objectives, opportunities for enhancing carbon sequestration are being taken. However, there is a lack of fundamental knowledge about the balance of greenhouse gas uptake and emissions from trees and soil, particularly where trees are grown on peaty soils. Relevant research is being conducted in Finland and it is a recommendation of this study that the Scottish Executive examines the relevant research outputs as it develops its forest strategy.

24. The possible impact of climate change on ocean circulation and fisheries is a major cause for concern, particularly to Iceland and Norway. A recommendation of this study is that the Scottish Executive strengthens its co-operative links on ocean climate monitoring and modelling with Norway and Iceland, particularly through the forthcoming joint UK-Norwegian research programme on rapid climate change.

Opportunities for future co-operation

25. The political driver for increasing regionalisation within Europe provides exciting opportunities for collaboration both at the UK level and, increasingly, for the Scottish Executive. Developing links with those countries that have similar social, economic and environmental profiles on the north and north-west margin of Europe will helpfully inform the development of local, national and regional climate policies.

26. This study suggests that opportunities for future co-operation and information exchange lie in three areas. Firstly, the Nordic countries have well-developed links on climate change matters associated with energy markets, many of which are expressed through the work of the Nordic Council of Ministers. Matters discussed at the Nordic Council of Ministers involve issues that are often reserved to the UK Government under the devolution legislation in Scotland, but issues such as the testing of Kyoto flexible mechanisms in the Baltic region are of interest to both Scotland and the UK.

27. Secondly, at national levels, the Nordic countries should provide a benchmark against which to focus Scottish policies for improving thermal and energy efficiency of its housing. Similarly, links could be beneficially developed on issues concerned with increasing the proportion of renewable energy and the combined heat and power capacity in Scotland. Ireland's Energy Centre provides a helpful template for developing information awareness campaigns on energy use in Scotland. Research programmes, such as the Norwegian and UK initiative on ocean currents, should lead to a closer understanding of respective national climate impacts.

24. Thirdly, there are opportunities for co-operation and exchange at local authority level with counterparts in Ireland and the Nordic countries concerned with land use planning and urban transport schemes.

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