Key 1999 Road Accident Statistics: Trn/2000/2

1. Introduction

1.1 This bulletin presents some key statistics on injury road accidents (that is, road accidents in which one or more people are injured or killed) in Scotland in 1999. The figures in this bulletin are provisional, because they were extracted from the Road Accidents statistical database towards the end of May 2000. More detailed analyses of the final figures for 1999 will appear later, in the publication "Road Accidents Scotland 1999". They may differ slightly from the figures here, because they will have been extracted on a later date, and the database may have changed between the two dates due to (eg) late returns and amendments. For similar reasons, the figures given here for 1998 and earlier years may differ slightly from those published previously.

1.2 In this bulletin, the figures for 1999 are compared with the annual averages for the period 1981-85. This is done because, in 1987, the Government adopted the target of reducing the number of road casualties by one third from the 1981-85 average level by the year 2000. One way to assess progress towards this target is to compare actual casualties in each year after 1987 with an indicative line starting at the actual number of casualties in 1987 (the year of adopting the target), and assuming a constant percentage reduction in each subsequent year, down to the target figure for the year 2000. On this target line, total casualty numbers for the year 1999 should be nearly 32% below the 1981-85 average. (A note on the derivation of this figure is given in section 8.4.)

1.3 On 1 March 2000, the UK Government, the Scottish Executive and the National Assembly for Wales announced new GB road safety targets for the year 2010, together with a strategy for achieving them. These new targets will be shown in Road Accident Statistics publications in due course.

2. Main Points

2.1 The provisional total number of people fatally injured in road accidents in Scotland in 1999 was 310: a decrease of 75 (19%) over the figure for 1998. This represented the lowest number of deaths since current records began, more than fifty years ago. The 1999 figure was 52% below the 1981-85 average number of fatalities per year.

2.2 There were 3,732 people recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 1999, 336 (8%) less than in 1998. This was the lowest figure since records of the numbers of serious injuries began in 1950, and was 55% below the 1981-85 average.

2.3 There were 16,795 people recorded as slightly injured in 1999, 1,215 (7%) fewer than in 1998. This was the lowest number since 1957, and was 8% below the 1981-85 average.

2.4 The total number of casualties in 1999 was 20,837, which was 1,626 (7%) lower than in 1998. This was the lowest figure since 1954 and was 23% below the 1981-85 average.

2.5 Accidents on roads in non built-up areas accounted for more than two thirds of all fatalities in Scotland, compared with two fifths of the total number of casualties, presumably because average speeds are higher on such roads.

2.6 A total of 12,805 car users were injured in road accidents in 1999, 169 of whom died (54 less than the previous year). There were 3,734 pedestrian casualties including 89 fatalities. Because of their greater vulnerability, 30% of all pedestrian casualties were either fatally or seriously injured, whereas only 19% of all road user casualties were killed or seriously injured.

2.7 There were 3,247 child casualties in 1999, including 27 fatalities: five deaths fewer than in 1998. This number is 61% below the 1981-85 average level. The total number of child casualties was 33% below the 1981-85 average level.

3. Numbers of Accidents (Table 1)

3.1 Table 1 shows the numbers of injury road accidents recorded by the police in 1999 and some earlier years. As noted earlier, the figures relate only to those accidents in which one or more people were killed or injured. Each accident is classified according to the severity of the most seriously injured casualty who was involved in it.

3.2 Following the trend of most years since 1989, the numbers of injury road accidents have fallen, in particular those accidents in which someone was killed or seriously injured. The number of fatal accidents in 1999 (285) was 54 fewer than the figure for 1998 (339). This is 31 fewer than the previous lowest number recorded, which was 316 in 1996. The number of serious injury accidents in 1999 (3,178) fell by 138 from the figure for 1998 (3,316), and the number of "slight injury" accidents in 1999 (11,840) was 8% less than the figure for 1998 (12,863).

4. Numbers of Casualties by Severity (Table 2)

4.1 Numbers fatally injured

The provisional total number of people fatally injured in road accidents in Scotland in 1999 was 310. This was 75 (19%) lower than the figure for 1998, and was the lowest number since the current records began more than 50 years ago (information about road accident fatalities prior to 1947 is not readily available). With a few exceptions, there has been a fall in each year since 1978, and for most of that period the figures show a clear, steady long-term downward trend, particularly between 1982 and 1994. From that point, the numbers had appeared to be levelling-off, but the 1999 figure represents a substantial decrease from the level of the previous five years.

The 1999 figure was 52% below the 1981-85 average number of fatalities per year, and therefore the target of a one-third reduction by the year 2000 has been reached and surpassed.

4.2 Numbers seriously injured

There were 3,732 people recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 1999: 336 (8%) less than in 1998. This is the lowest figure since records of the numbers of serious injuries began in 1950. Since the early 1980s, the long-term trend has generally been downward, although there was an apparent levelling-off when the figures for 1996, 1997 and 1998 showed very little change, all being between 4,040 and 4,070.

The 1999 figure is 55% below the 1981-85 average, so this target has been reached before 2000.

4.3 Numbers slightly injured

There were 16,795 people recorded as slightly injured in 1999: 1,215 (7%) fewer than in 1998. Recent years' figures had suggested that the fall between 1990 and 1995 in the number of people with slight injuries had been followed by a levelling-off above the 1995 figure, but it has now fallen below that level.

Although the lowest since 1957, the 1999 figure is only 8% below the 1981-85 average, and so is still 4,627 above the year 2000 target of 12,168.

4.4 Total numbers of casualties

The total number of casualties (of all severities) in 1999 was 20,837, which was 1,626 (7%) lower than in 1998. This represented the lowest number of casualties since 1954. The total number of casualties has fallen markedly from the level of the most recent "short-term" peak (which was over 27,000 in both 1989 and 1990), and had looked to be levelling off before the drop this year: the figures for each of the years from 1993 to 1998 were all within 600 (3%) of the average of 22,330 for those six years.

The 1999 total was 20,837, 23% below the 1981-85 average, and therefore above the target line for a reduction of one third by the year 2000.

5. Casualties by Type of Road (Table 3)

5.1 In 1999, "non built-up" roads (see the definition in section 8.3) accounted for about two-fifths of the total number of casualties (41%: 8,482 out of 20,837). However, presumably because average speeds are higher on non built-up roads than elsewhere, they accounted for two-thirds of fatal injuries (68%: 210 out of 310) and for almost half of the total number of fatal and serious injuries combined (49%: 1,987 out of 4,042).

5.2 Compared with the 1981-85 average, the fall in the total number of casualties has been much greater for "built-up" roads (29%) than for non built-up roads (13%). The difference between the two types of road is greater when one compares the falls from the 1981-85 averages for the numbers killed (down by 64% for built-up roads compared with 42% for non built-up). However, since the start of the 1980s, some traffic will have been transferred away from built-up roads by the opening of city and town bypasses, and by the construction of unrestricted roads with higher average traffic volumes. Therefore, these figures do not provide an accurate measure of the comparative change in the road safety performance of "built-up" and "non built-up" roads.

6. Casualties by Mode of Transport (Table 3)

6.1 Car users

A total of 12,805 car users were injured in road accidents, representing three-fifths of all casualties (61%: 12,805 out of 20,837). Of these people, a total of 1,983 were either fatally or seriously injured, 169 of whom died. Non built-up roads accounted for a little over half of all car user casualties (53%: 6,769 out of 12,805). Presumably because average speeds are higher on non built-up roads, they accounted for much higher percentages of the total numbers of car users who were fatally injured (85%: 143 out of 169) or were fatally or seriously injured (71%: 1,410 out of 1,983).

The number of car user fatalities in 1999 was 24% lower than in 1998, and was 39% below the 1981-85 average level. The number who were fatally or seriously injured fell by 17% from 1998, and the total number of casualties (of all severities) was 7% less than in the previous year. The total number of car user casualties was 4% higher than the 1981-85 average level.

6.2 Pedestrians

There were 3,734 pedestrian casualties in 1999: a fifth of all casualties (18%: 3,734 out of 20,837). Of these, 1,137 were fatally or seriously injured (89 died). Presumably because of the greater vulnerability of pedestrians, 30% of pedestrian casualties were fatally or seriously injured (1,137 out of 3,734) compared with 19% of all casualties (4,042 out of 20,837). About 95% of pedestrian casualties occurred on built-up roads (3,543 out of 3,734). Perhaps because of higher average speeds on non built-up roads, 59% of the pedestrian casualties on such roads were serious injuries or fatalities (113 out of 191) compared with 29% on built-up roads (1,024 out of 3,543).

The number of pedestrian casualties in 1999 was 8% less than in 1998, and 43% below the 1981-85 average. The numbers of pedestrian fatalities, and of fatal and serious injuries, in 1999 were respectively 62% and 57% less than the 1981-85 average levels.

6.3 Other casualties

Together, all other modes of transport accounted for a fifth (21%) of casualties in 1999, and for similar proportions of the numbers of fatalities and serious injuries (23%). There were 1,017 pedal cyclist casualties in 1999, including 189 (17%) fatal or serious injuries (8 died). In 1999 there were 1,015 motor cycle casualties, 39 (4%) more than 1998, of whom 425 (42%) suffered fatal or serious injuries. The total numbers of fatally and seriously injured motorcycle casualties have increased for both built-up and non built-up areas by 19% and 12 % respectively. A total of 912 bus and coach users were injured, of whom 82 suffered fatal or serious injuries (1 died) - these low proportions presumably being due to the greater protection of their passengers by buses and coaches. Although the number of bus and coach user casualties on non built-up roads increased from 138 to 197 (43%) in 1999, the overall number of bus and coach casualties fell by 5%.

The number of motor cycle casualties in 1999 was 71% below the 1981-85 average, and the total of the numbers fatally or seriously injured was 70% below the 1981-85 level. Although there was an increase in motorcycle casualties in 1999, the overall fall in motor cyclist casualty numbers of 71% from the 1981-85 average is considerably greater than the reductions for other modes of transport.

7. Child Casualties (Table 4)

7.1 Child casualties

There were 3,247 child casualties in 1999, representing under a sixth of the total number of casualties of all ages (16%: 3,247 out of 20,837). Of the child casualties, 629 were fatalities or serious injuries, of whom 27 died. This was a decrease of 5 fatalities compared to 1998. These numbers were all considerably below the 1981-85 average levels: the number of casualties was 33% lower, and the number of deaths was 61% below the 1981-85 average level.

7.2 Child pedestrians

There were 1,637 child pedestrian casualties in 1999. They accounted for 44% of all pedestrian casualties of all ages (1,637 out of 3,734). Of the child pedestrian casualties, 432 were fatalities or serious injuries (17 died). The number of fatalities was 1 less than 1998, and the numbers of fatal and serious injuries and all casualties were less than in 1998 (5% and 7% respectively). These figures were considerably below the corresponding 1981-85 averages: the number of fatal and serious child pedestrian casualties and the overall number of child pedestrian casualties were, respectively, 58% and 43% below the 1981-85 average level.

7.3 Children in cars

In 1999, there were 985 child casualties in cars, 8% of the total number of car user casualties of all ages (985 out of 12,805). Of the child casualties in cars, 111 were fatalities or serious injuries (8 died). While the number of child car user fatalities and serious injuries was 38% below the 1981-85 average, the total number of child car user casualties (of all severities) was 10% above the 1981-85 average.

7.4 Other child casualties

In 1999, there were 379 child pedal cycle casualties (37% of the total of 1,017 pedal cycle casualties of all ages), 166 child bus and coach user casualties (18% of the total of 912 of all ages) and 80 other child casualties. The child pedal cycle casualties included 68 fatalities and serious injuries, of whom one died. The total number of child pedal cycle casualties in 1999 was 50% below the 1981-85 average, and the number of child bus and coach user casualties was 1% above the 1981-85 average.

8. Sources and definitions

8.1 The sources of the data

The statistics in this bulletin were compiled from returns made by police forces, which cover all accidents in which a vehicle is involved that occur on roads (including footways) and result in personal injury, if they become known to the police. The vehicle need not be moving, and need not be in collision - for example, the returns include accidents involving people alighting from buses. "Damage only" accidents are not included in this definition.

8.2 The definition of "severity"

For the purposes of the Road Accidents statistical returns:

a fatal injury is one which causes death less than 30 days after the accident;

a fatal accident is an accident in which at least one person is fatally injured;

a serious injury is one which does not cause death less than 30 days after the accident, and which is in one (or more) of the following categories:

(a) an injury for which a person is detained in hospital as an in-patient

or (b) any of the following injuries (whether or not the person is detained in hospital): fractures, concussion, internal injuries, crushings, severe cuts and lacerations, severe general shock requiring treatment

or (c) any injury causing death 30 or more days after the accident;

a serious accident is one in which at least one person is seriously injured, but no-one suffers a fatal injury;

a "slight" injury is any injury which is neither "fatal" nor "serious" - for example, a sprain, bruise or cut which is not judged to be severe, or slight shock requiring roadside attention;

a "slight" accident is one in which at least one person suffers "slight" injuries, but no-one is seriously injured, or fatally injured;

Over the years, improvements in vehicle design, and the provision and use of additional safety features, together with changes in the law (eg on the fitting and wearing of seatbelts), will have all helped to reduce the severity of the injuries suffered in some accidents. Road safety measures should also have reduced the levels of injuries sustained - for example, if traffic calming schemes reduce average speeds and hence reduce the speeds at which collisions occur. In addition, the distinction between "serious" and "slight" injuries could be affected by factors such as changes in hospitals’ admission policies. For example, all else being equal, the number of "serious injury" cases would rise, and the number of "slight injury" cases would fall, if it became standard procedure for a hospital to keep in overnight, for precautionary reasons, casualties with a particular type of injury (section 2.3 of the 1995 bulletin explained that part of the increase in "serious injury" cases in 1994 was due to hospitals admitting more child casualties for overnight observation). There could also be changes in hospitals’ procedures that would reduce the numbers of "serious injury" cases. In addition, there is anecdotal evidence that changes in procedures for assigning severity codes may affect the categorisation of injuries. For example, different severity codes might be assigned by a police officer who was at the scene of an accident and by a clerk who bases the code on a police officer’s written description of the accident. Therefore, it is possible that some of the changes shown in the figures for "serious injuries" and "slight injuries" may be affected by changes in administrative practices, which may have altered the proportion of accidents which is categorised as "serious".

8.3 Some other definitions

Built-up roads: accidents which occur on "built-up" roads are those which occur on roads which have speed limits of up to 40 miles per hour (ignoring temporary speed limits on roads for which the normal speed limit is over 40mph). Therefore, an accident on a motorway in an urban area would not be counted as occurring on a "built-up" road, because the speed limit on the motorway is 70mph. An accident on a stretch of motorway with a temporary speed limit of 30mph would not be counted as occurring on a "built-up" road, because the normal speed limit is 70mph.

Children: people under 16 years old.

Pedestrians: includes people riding toy cycles on the footway; people pushing or pulling bicycles or other vehicles; people leading or herding animals; occupants of prams or wheelchairs; people who alight safely from vehicles and are subsequently injured.

8.4 The calculation of the "target line"

The "target line" referred to in paragraph 1.2 is not a straight line, because each year’s fall is calculated by applying a constant percentage reduction to the target line’s number of casualties in the previous year (which reduces each year). The total number of casualties in the year 2000 would be two-thirds of the 1981-85 average level if there were a constant reduction of about 2.38% (compound) each year after 1987. The calculation of the 2.38% is as follows:

The calculation of the 1999 "target line" figure is as follows. As 1999 is twelve years after 1987, the 1999 "target line" figure is found by applying a compound reduction of 2.38% per year for twelve years to the 1987 figure of 24,748. The result is a 1999 "target line" figure of 18,536 which is 31.7% below the 1981-85 average of 27,142.

Repeating this calculation for different types of casualty gives different annual percentage reductions. This is because, in each case, the 1987 actual figure, which is the "starting position" for the line, represents a different percentage of the 1981-85 average level. It follows that one needs a different value for each type of casualty for the constant compound percentage reduction each year after 1987 in order for its year 2000 figure to be two-thirds of the 1981-85 average level for that type of casualty.

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