6.1 Vessel Replacement
CalMac vessels servicing the Gourock/Dunoon route are either close to, or have passed, their 20 year design life. Although all are in good condition, they could be considered as technically obsolete. In order to improve the service, it would be desirable to replace them.
All modem vehicle ferry vessels are designed on the drive-through (bow and stem loading) principle and all those to whom we have spoken during this study consider that any replacement vessels on the Gourock/Dunoon route should be designed with this principle in mind. If the replacement vessels used fewer crew than the nine required for CalMac's existing vessels, costs savings would also be generated.
CalMac is planning its vessel replacement programme for Gourock/Dunoon on this basis, and its 1996 corporate plan indicates a desired vessel investment programme which would cost £ 16.5 million over the period 2001-2005 to replace three vessels on the Upper Clyde at a cost of £5.5 million each. In addition, £2 million would be required to finance improved linkspans at Dunoon and Rothesay, and £0.5 million would fund the demolition of the pier at Gourock.
As CalMac is currently not generating an operating profit, this funding would have to be made available from Scottish Office or other external grants if the programme is to be realised. Ideally, CalMac would like two new ro-ro vessels for the Gourock/Dunoon route, at an estimated cost (new) of £3 million each, together with any necessary alterations to Dunoon Pier to enable the Pier to take front-loading vessels.
Western Ferries considers that its present five ships should last, under its existing maintenance regime, for some time to come, but is planning one ship replacement within the next two years, which will add 9% additional deck capacity to its total capacity. This will enable Western Ferries to accommodate continuing modest growth in the market, as evidenced by the trends of the early and mid 1990s discussed in the previous section. This increase in deck capacity could enable Western Ferries to meet the entire market demand.
Western Ferries is also planning to undertake upgrading at Hunter's Quay and to continue maintaining McInroy's Point.
In summary, the desired vessel replacement programmes of the two operators considered separately would probably exceed £20 million in capital expenditure (including piers) over the next ten years. Even if the programme is cut back significantly below this level, say, to £ 14 million, it would still equate to approximately £ 10 for each of the 1.4 million passengers one way (borne across all traffic types) currently carried by the route each year, or more than twice the currently quoted tariff for a standard adult return ticket on the route. This suggests that it is doubtful whether such an investment programme would be affordable using commercial finance. The fundamental reason for this is that there is too much capacity on the route, relative to current and likely future traffic levels, and the capital expenditure necessary to sustain this capacity is large.
6.2 Terminal Upgrading and Replacement
In Dunoon, the need to accommodate bow and stem loading ferries can be achieved by various means:
Detailed cost estimates of these options have yet to be prepared, but initial estimates suggest that the costs of upgrading Dunoon Pier, and extending the breakwater to give greater protection to vessels entering and leaving the harbour, could be in the region of £4 - £5 million.
The former Strathclyde Regional Council produced outline designs for the existing Dunoon terminal incorporating a stem ramp and a breakwater (Figure 6.1 overleaf). Its unitary successor, Argyll & Bute Council, favours this option for a number of reasons, not least its wish to attract passengers to Dunoon itself.
It should be noted that if this option is chosen, a bow and stem loading vessel for the Gourock/Dunoon route would not be able to operate in and out of Rothesay unless this terminal was also modified to allow drive through. However, this option has been allowed for in the design of the Rothesay terminal.
The proposals would have to be considered in terms of their effects on traffic congestion in Dunoon.
Figure 6.1: Design for new pier at Dunoon
fig 6.1
Source: Argyll & Bute Council
6.3 Conclusions
In deciding which option to pursue for both the terminal and vessel investment programmes, key criteria will include the cost-effectiveness and affordability of service delivery.
In the next section, we set out a financial analysis to help inform the options appraisal on these criteria.