7.1 Five of the eight police forces showed an increase in the total number of crimes recorded in 1999 when compared with 1998: Lothian & Borders (up 17 per cent), Fife (up 13 per cent), both Grampian and Northern (up 5 per cent) and Central (up 3 per cent) (Tables 4A and 5). The increases in recorded crime in Lothian & Borders and Fife seem particularly large but reflect the fact that both these forces introduced improved crime recording systems in 1999, which led to substantial increases in the numbers of crimes they recorded. For example, Fife Constabulary introduced changes to make it easier for the public to report crimes. Lothian & Borders introduced more rigorous recording practices to ensure a consistency of data across the full range of reported incidents, as recommended in the Primary Inspection Report by Her Majesty’s Chief Inspector of Constabulary which had found indications that there was an under-recording of crimes in some areas. Other reasons for the increase in recorded crime in Lothian & Borders include specific, pro-active operations on drugs (Operation Foil), car crime (Operation Impact), and crimes of violence (Operation Avalanche).
7.2 In contrast, there was a large decrease (6 per cent) in recorded crime in Strathclyde. In particular, the numbers of crimes of dishonesty fell due to the success of special efforts against housebreaking where intelligence led policing has been effective at targeting specific crimes. As a result of the fall in crime in Strathclyde, the proportion of all crimes in Scotland recorded in Strathclyde fell from 51 per cent in 1998 to 47 per cent in 1999. This proportion is much closer to the area’s share of 44 per cent of the Scottish resident population. The reduction in the numbers of recorded crime in Strathclyde did not completely offset the increases in the other forces, mainly because of the magnitude of the increase in recorded crime in Lothian & Borders. However, it is likely that, had the recorded crime figures not been affected by the changes in recording systems in Lothian & Borders and Fife, the increases in these areas would have been more than offset by the substantial decrease in crime recorded in Strathclyde. The overall crime figures in Scotland would then have fallen. Both Dumfries & Galloway and Tayside each recorded decreases of 2 per cent.
Chart 5 Total number of crimes recorded per 10,000 population in 19991 by police force area
chart 5
1. The mid-year population estimate for 1998 was used since, at the time of publication, the 1999 estimate was not available.
7.3 Because of the decrease in recorded crime in Strathclyde and the increase in Lothian & Borders and Grampian, Strathclyde no longer has the highest rate of crimes per 10,000 population (Tables 4B and 5). Lothian & Borders police recorded 941 crimes per 10,000 population in 1999 - the highest rate of all forces - and the second highest rate was in Grampian, at 915 crimes per 10,000 population. Northern Constabulary still recorded the lowest number of crimes per 10,000 population (464) in spite of the 5 per cent increase in recorded crime between 1998 and 1999 in that area. Crime rates for force areas include offending by non-residents as well as the resident population. Thus, the high rate of motor vehicle offences recorded in Dumfries & Galloway, 1,193, which is almost double the Scottish rate (690), may reflect the volume of traffic on trunk roads through the area. In addition, the crime rates will reflect local initiatives within forces, which affect the reporting and detection of crime from one period to the next.
7.4 In 1999, the Scottish forces had widely differing clear-up rates for crimes, partly reflecting the different characteristics of the areas, the profile of crimes committed within each force area and the success of special efforts at targeting specific crimes. The rates varied from 37 per cent in Grampian, 39 per cent in Lothian & Borders, 40 per cent in Tayside, 43 per cent in Fife to 45 per cent in Strathclyde, 55 per cent in Central, 57 per cent in Dumfries & Galloway and 59 per cent in Northern Constabulary.