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1.3 Casualties
As the numbers of accidents have fallen, so have the numbers of casualties. Therefore, this section does not repeat the previous section’s detailed analysis of the way in which the numbers have changed over the past 30 years.
Numbers fatally injured
The number of people fatally injured in road accidents in Scotland in 1998 was 385. Although this was eight (2%) more than in 1997, it is the fourth lowest number for at least 50 years. The only years which had fewer road deaths than 1998 were 1994 (363 deaths), 1996 (357) and 1997 (377). With a few exceptions, there has been a fall in each year since 1978, and for most of that period the figures show a clear, steady long-term downward trend, particularly between 1982 and 1994. However, it appears that the numbers have now levelled-off: the 1998 figure of 385 is slightly higher than the
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average for the previous five years (381), and the figures for each of the years from 1993 are all within 6 or 7% of that average.
The 1998 figure was 40% below the 1981-85 average number of fatalities per year, and therefore the Government’s target of a one-third reduction by the year 2000 has already been reached.
Numbers seriously injured
There were 4,066 people recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 1998: 19 (0.5%) more than in 1997. This is the third lowest number since records of the numbers of serious injuries began in 1950. The only years with fewer serious injuries than 1998 were 1996 (with 4,041) and 1997 with (4,047). Once again, the long term trend shows that the numbers were falling, but they now have levelled off: the figures for the latest three years show very little change, all being between 4,040 and 4,070.
The 1998 figure is 51% below the 1981-85 average, so this target has been reached before the year 2000.
Numbers slightly injured
There were 18,006 people recorded as slightly injured in 1998: 199 (1%) less than in 1997. This is well below the most recent short-term peak level (which was over 20,000 in 1990) having fallen in each of the following five years it has also fallen over the longer term: the 1998 figure was lower than most recorded in the past 40 years. However, there is a suggestion that the numbers may now be levelling-off, or rising slightly: there has been a 7% increase from the 1995 figure of 16,855 (which was the lowest value in the past 40 years).
The 1998 figure is only 1.3% below the 1981-85 average, and so is considerably above the year 2000 target.
Total numbers of casualties
The total number of casualties (of all severities) in 1998 was 22,457, 172 (1%) less than in 1997. This represented the fourth lowest figure in the past 40 years: the three years with lower figures were all in the preceding five years. The total number of casualties has fallen markedly from the level of the most recent "short-term" peak (which was over 27,000 in 1989 and 1990) but appears now to have levelled off: the figures for each of the years from 1993 are all within about 600 (3%) of the average of 22,331 for those six years.
The 1998 total was 17% below the 1981-85 average, and therefore above the target line.
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