| 1. Introduction |
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1.1 This
bulletin presents 1996-based household projections produced by The Scottish Office
Development Department. These update the 1994-based projections published in August 1997
in Statistical Bulletin HSG/1997/5 and incorporate the 1996-based population projections. |
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1.2 These
household projections are calculated by applying trends in household formation observed in
the 1971 and 1991 Censuses of Population to the 1996-based population projections prepared
by the Government Actuary's Department and the General Register Office (Scotland). It
is important to note that the projections should not be treated as forecasts but as an
indication of what might happen in the future if past trends were to continue. No account
is taken of trends in household formation since 1991. |
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Chart 1 |
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| Notes and
definitions |
| Notes |
| 1. Individual figures in the
tables have been rounded to the nearest 100. The totals shown may therefore not be equal
to the sum of the constituent parts. |
| 2. Only the selected projection
years have been shown due to the limited printing space available. Projected household
information for other years is available on request. |
| Definitions |
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| 1. Private household
population refers to the population excluding those who live in communal establishments,
such as defence establishments, educational establishments, nursing homes, etc. |
| 2. Where children are
included in a household type, although they mainly consist of children aged 1-15, they may
also include a number of 16-18 year olds classified as dependent children in the Census
(mainly people still at school). |
| 3. Average household size, that
is, the average number of persons in private households, is calculated by dividing the
private household population by the number of households. |
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| 2. Summary of main
points from the projections |
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The main
points to emerge from the projections are: |
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- The total number of households in Scotland is projected to increase by 10 per cent
(210,000) from 2,136,000 in 1996 to 2,346,000 in 2010.
- One person households accounted for an estimated 30 per cent of all households in 1996,
and are projected to increase to 34 per cent by 2010.
- Lone adults with children account for only around 6 per cent of all households
throughout the projection period.
- The private household population is projected to fall by around 71,000 from 5.02 million
in 1996 to 4.95 million in 2010, in line with the projected fall in total population.
- The average household size is projected to fall from 2.4 persons in 1996 to 2.1 persons
in 2010.
- The projections for West Lothian and Aberdeenshire show the largest percentage increase
in total households between 1996 and 2010 at over 20 per cent each.
- Dundee City, East Ayrshire, Glasgow City and West Dunbartonshire have the smallest
projected percentage increase in total households at between 2 and 4 per cent.
- Inverclyde is the only area projected to have a decrease in total households (4 per
cent).
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3.
Short description of the methodology |
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Household
projections are produced approximately every 2 years. Their purpose is to give an
indication of possible future numbers of households if trends observed in the past
continue. It is important to realise that projections are NOT forecasts. The
calculation of projected household numbers involves using the following two main sources
of information: |
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- Data on households from previous Censuses of Population can be used to identify trends
which have taken place in household formation in the past. Census information is available
for the years 1971, 1981 and 1991. This historic information is used to project possible
future trends. For this set of household projections, the 1971 and 1991 Censuses of
Population have been used (see Annex A.4 for details of other methods tried).
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- Population projections produced by the General Register Office for Scotland give an
indication of possible future trends in population. Estimates of the numbers of persons
living in communal establishments are subtracted from the total population figures to
produce projections of the numbers of person living in private households.
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The household
projections are then calculated by applying projected trends in household formation,
derived from the first of these sources, to projections of the numbers of persons in
private households, derived from the second source. |
