1. Introduction

1.1 The tables that follow provide a summary of the trends in passenger and freight transport in Scotland since 1975. The series are repeated in index form to facilitate comparison of the trends for the different modes.

2. Main Points

2.1 The volume of car traffic on major roads has more than doubled, from an estimated 9,300 million vehicle kilometres in 1975 to 19,600 million vehicle kilometres in 1997. It is estimated to have risen in every year apart from 1979 (when the estimates suggest a slight fall). (Table 1)

2.2 The number of passenger journeys on local bus services has almost halved, from 891 million in 1975 to 467 million in 1996-97. There were falls in every year apart from 1985, 1987 and 1988, when it appeared that the fall in patronage might be levelling-off. (Table 1)

2.3 The number of rail passenger journeys has also fallen, from 66 million in 1975 to an estimated 54 million in 1996-97. In the past ten years, passenger numbers have fluctuated between 50 million and 55 million per year. (Table 1)

2.4 The volume of air passenger traffic has more than tripled, from 4.2 million passengers in 1975 to 14.4 million in 1997. There have been increases in every year apart from 1982, 1985 and 1991. (Table 1)

2.5 The amount of freight carried by road has fluctuated over the period, rising to 172 million tonnes per year and falling to 128 million tonnes per year. The total of 162 million tonnes in 1996 was slightly less than the 1975 figure. (Table 2)

2.6 The volume of rail freight traffic fell from 16 million tonnes in 1975 to 5 million tonnes in 1994, and is estimated to have risen to 7 million tonnes in 1996. (Table 2)

2.7 Coastal shipping rose rapidly, from 5 million tonnes in 1975 to 34 million tonnes in 1980. Since then, the total has fluctuated, rising to 37 million and falling to 29 million. In 1996, 36 million tonnes were carried. (Table 2)

2.8 With a few exceptions, the annual total freight lifted on inland waterways has been around 10-11 million tonnes. (Table 2)

2.9 The amount of oil carried in pipelines rose rapidly to 23 million tonnes in 1977, and has fluctuated since then between 21 million tonnes and 30 million tonnes per year (26 million tonnes in 1996). (Table 2)

3. Notes, Sources and Further Information

3.1 In general, notes and definitions of these statistics, and details of the sources of the statistics and where further information may be found appear at the start of the chapter on each topic. This section, therefore, only covers matters which are not dealt with there.

3.2 Passenger Traffic

3.2.1 Car Traffic: Chapter 6 describes the methods used to estimate the volume of car traffic in Scotland for 1983 and subsequent years. As those methods cannot be used to estimate car traffic in Scotland for earlier years, The Scottish Office had to make ad-hoc estimates for the years from 1975 to 1982. These ad-hoc estimates were calculated using the rate of change in the volume of traffic for Great Britain as a whole, adjusted to take account of changes in the number of vehicles licensed in Scotland relative to the number for Great Britain as a whole. The estimates for 1975 to 1982 therefore indicate the likely level of traffic in Scotland in those years, and may well be less accurate than the estimates for later years.

3.2.2 Bus Passengers: Chapter 2 describes the method used to collect these statistics with effect from the 1985-86 financial year. A different method was used for 1984 and earlier years: the figures relate to calendar years and, prior to 1986, the term "stage services" was used (rather than "local services").

3.2.3 Rail Passengers: See Chapter 8. The statistics relate to financial years with effect from 1985-86. The figure for 1984 is derived from a total for the fifteen-month period 1 January 1984 to 31 March 1985, by scaling this down to an estimate for a twelve-month period. The figures for 1983 and earlier years are for calendar years.

3.2.4 Air Passengers: Chapter 9 describes these statistics.

3.3 Freight Traffic

3.3.1 Road Freight: Chapter 3 describes these statistics. There is a small discontinuity between the figures for 1986 and 1987: the former exclude freight whose destination is Northern Ireland, and the latter include such freight. As Table 3.1 shows, the amount involved is a very small percentage of the total.

3.3.2 Rail Freight: See Chapter 8. The statistics relate to financial years with effect from 1985-86. The figure for 1984 is derived from a total for the fifteen-month period from 1 January 1984 to 31 March 1985, by scaling this down to an estimate for a twelve-month period. The figures for 1983 and earlier years are for calendar years.

3.3.3 Coastal shipping: covers Scottish coastwise shipping plus UK coastwise shipping with destination Scotland, less double counting of freight at both origin and destination ports. Coastal shipping excludes foreign and "one port" freight shipping. The coverage of coastal shipping is different from the water transport statistics provided in chapter 10, where domestic water transport covers coastwise and "one port" freight shipping, and does not exclude double counting of freight at origin and destination ports. There is a small discontinuity between 1981 and 1982, due to a change in definitions.

3.3.4 Inland Waterway: See Chapter 10. Unfortunately, figures for 1979 and earlier years are not readily available.

3.3.5 Pipeline: covers the total carried by all pipelines which are in excess of 50km in length and which carry crude oil. Pipelines which are less than 50km long are excluded.