Population Estimates

1.2 The population estimates for 1991 presented in this section are based on the 1991 Census counts of residents. However, they incorporate adjustments to allow for differences in timing and in definition of residence (i.e. for students), and for estimated under counting of residents in the census. The estimates for 1992 onwards take account of subsequent births, deaths, and migration. Estimates for 1982 to 1990 have been revised to take account of the final census based estimates for 1991. The population is defined as including all persons usually resident in Scotland regardless of their nationality. Members of HM and non-UK armed forces stationed in Scotland are included; HM Forces stationed outside Scotland are excluded. Students are treated as being resident at their term time address.

Household Estimates

1.3 Table 1.2 was supplied by the Housing Statistics Unit of the Scottish Office. Further details are available in the series of statistical bulletins Housing Trends in Scotland.

Population Projections

1.4 Population projections for Scotland are prepared at regular intervals by the Government Actuary's Department in association with the Registrar General. The latest projection was based on the Registrar General's population estimates for mid 1994 (latest projections available at time of compilation of this publication). The assumptions on fertility, mortality, and migration used in this projection are described below:

Fertility: The fertility rates used were based on assumptions about the average completed family size of successive cohorts of women. It has been assumed that the average completed family size will continue to decline from the current figure of over 2 children per woman for those now in their forties, to 1.81 for those born in 1965, before rising to 1.90 for those born in 1975 and later. The annual number of births is projected to rise slightly initially, but to fall below 60,000 in 2004-2005 and remain so for the rest of the projection period.

Mortality: The mortality rates for the first year of the projection, 1994-95, were based on estimates of the numbers of deaths in that period that were available in the Autumn of 1994. The mortality rates for later years are based on trends in the years up to 1994-95 in England and Wales. However, it has been assumed that the mortality differentials between Scotland and England and Wales, as shown by their experience in 1989-1991, will continue unchanged. For males aged between 23 and 42, it is assumed that mortality rates will increase for about 15 years. There is also initially very little reduction for women in their 20s.

Expectation of Life

1.5 The latest figures in table 1.9 are calculated on the mortality rates experienced during 1996 and the estimated population at 30 June 1996. At each age shown, the expectation of life is the average number of years of life left to persons aged X who are subject to the 1996 mortality rates from age X onwards.

Sources: