| 1 population, vital statistics and
elections |
|
| Introduction |
| 1.1 The Registrar General for Scotland is
responsible for collecting statistics of population and vital events (i.e. births,
marriages and deaths). The census which is held every ten years is the main source for
population statistics. The information on births, marriages and deaths is obtained from
the civil registration system. |
|
| Population estimates |
| 1.2 The mid-1997 population estimates
presented in section 1A are based on the number of residents counted in the 1991 Census
(adjusted for definition differences and under counting) with allowances for subsequent
births, deaths and migration. The population is defined to include all persons usually
resident in Scotland whatever their nationality. Members of United Kingdom and non-UK
armed forces stationed in Scotland are included. Armed Forces stationed outside Scotland
are excluded. Students are treated as being resident at their term-time address. |
| 1.3 Population projections in table 1A1 for Scotland are prepared at regular intervals by the Government
Actuary’s Department. The Registrar General is consulted about these. The latest
projection, which was based on estimates for mid-1996, used the following assumptions : |
| 1.3.1 The fertility rates were based on
assumptions on the average completed family size of successive generations of women. It
was assumed that this would continue to fall from the current figure of over 2 children
per women for those now in their forties, to 1.69 for those born in 1970, before rising
again to 1.75 for those born in 1982 and later. The annual number of births is projected
to fall below 60,000 in 1996-97 and remain so for the rest of the projection period. |
| 1.3.2 The mortality rates (or death rates)
for the first year of the projection, 1996-97, were based on the available information
about actual deaths in that period. The mortality rates for the later years were based on
the long-term trends up to 1996-97. Generally, mortality rates were assumed to fall,
though at some young adult ages it was assumed that the rates would continue to increase
for some years to come. In line with long-term trends, it was assumed that mortality rates
for Scotland will continue to be higher than those for England and Wales. |
| 1.3.3 It is assumed that net migration into
Scotland will decrease from a loss of 6,000 people in 1996-97 to a loss of 3,000 people a
year to the end of the projection period. The assumptions were based on analyses of trends
in civilian migration to and from the United Kingdom and between Scotland, England,
Northern Ireland and Wales. It should be noted that in the longer term migration
assumptions may be substantially different from what actually occurs. |
|
| Electors |
| 1.4 Statistics on electors are based on
returns from Electoral Registration Officers summarising the register of electors
published each year in February. The total number of electors includes
‘attainers’ - persons who reach 18 years of age during the life of the register. |
