| Introduction |
| The
1996 estimates of agricultural output, input and income
for the UK are described in ‘Agriculture in the
United Kingdom 1996’, published by HMSO on behalf of
the UK Agriculture Departments. The Scottish estimates
given in this section correspond to those in the above
publication. The aggregate income figures reflect the
estimated value of output and inputs to Scottish
agriculture over the whole of the calendar year. As gross
output includes the value of commodity subsidies and
other sundry payments to agriculture paid in the calendar
year 1996, these are incorporated in the income figures. |
| The
1996 estimates are forecasts - they are based on June
1996 census results and part-year data on prices and
volumes. Fuller data will become available during this
year and these will be used to revise the existing
estimates. As they stand, the 1996 estimates are subject
to some risk of error. |
| |
| Aggregate
Results |
| The
1996 forecasts for Scottish agricultural output, input
and income are shown in Table A1. The value of gross
output is expected to have fallen by around 3.5 per cent,
to stand at just over £2 billion, and gross input is
estimated at £977 million, 2 per cent above the 1995
value. Net product, or the return to land, labour,
capital and managerial factors, is forecast at £831
million, 10 per cent lower than in 1995. Total Income
from Farming (TIFF), which measures the return to the
farming family, is expected to have fallen by about 16
per cent to £519 million. Farming Income (FI), or the
return to the farmer and spouse, is forecast at £443
million, around 18.6 per cent below the previous year. In
real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) terms, the fall in TIFF is
equivalent to just under 18 per cent, while FI fell by
around 20.5 per cent. |
| |
| Farm
Crops |
| Output
from farm crops is expected to have fallen by around 10
per cent during 1996. A strong fall in the price of ware
potatoes, which returned to more normal levels,
contributed greatly to a forecast reduction in potatoes
output of around £78 million. This trend also took place
in other parts of the UK. The area grown to barley was
up, and most cereals yields improved on the previous
year, contributing to a record crop. Compared to the
previous year, cereals prices were weaker in 1996, while
Arable Area Payments declined marginally. Overall,
cereals output is estimated at £369 million, about 4.4
per cent higher than in 1995. |
| |
| Livestock
and Livestock Products |
| The
value of livestock and livestock products is forecast to
have fallen by around 2.8 per cent. The value of finished
cattle output is expected to have fallen by around 22 per
cent, due to lower marketings and prices. This excludes
animals in the Over Thirty Months and Calf Processing
Schemes; associated payments to Scottish farmers are
included in Other Direct Receipts. Price increases for
finished sheep are expected to have more than off-set a
fall in marketings, leading to a rise of over 15 per cent
in the value of output. Stronger prices for pigs have led
to an estimated 17 per cent increase in the value of
output. Both poultry volumes and prices increased during
1996 and are forecast to increase the value of output by
about 16 per cent. As in 1995, there was a small rise in
milk prices during the year and the value of output is
expected to be around 2 per cent higher. Increased
volumes and prices are forecast to have resulted in a
rise in the value of eggs output by around 6.6 per cent. |
| |
| Inputs |
| Total
expenditure on inputs rose by over 3 per cent in 1996,
largely due to higher prices. Feed and fertiliser/lime
costs are both forecast to rise by about 5 per cent.
Interest payments show a fall due to lower average
interest rates during the year. An increase in the hired
labour bill is forecast, due to higher wage costs. |
| |
| Balance
Sheet |
| The
value of total fixed assets are estimated to be up
slightly at £10.4 billion in 1996, following a good year
for investment in 1995. Current assets fell by about
£180 million to £1.4 billion, largely as a result of
falls in the values of trading livestock and crops and
stores. Overall, the total value of assets remained
virtually unchanged due to the small rise in fixed assets
offsetting the fall in current ones. |
| Long
and medium term liabilities are forecast to have remained
broadly unchanged but there have been increases in those
in the short term. The net worth of the industry
(calculated by subtracting total liabilities from total
assets) has continued to be stable at 88% of the value of
total assets. |
| |
