Bus and Coach Statistics: 1997-98

1. Introduction

1.1 This Bulletin describes the trends in Scottish bus and coach services over the past tenyears, from 1987-88 to 1997-98, using statistics which were provided by the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions. A summary table provides some key figures over a longer period, including 1985-86, the last full year prior to the deregulation of bus services outside London, which took place during 1986-87. The tables include, in many cases, comparable statistics for Great Britain and/or for "Great Britain outside London", where this is more appropriate.

1.2 The commentary generally focuses on the latest year (1997-98) and compares it withthe previous year, and with trends over the past ten years. The commentary also compares some trends for Scotland with the corresponding trends for Great Britain (or for Great Britain outwith London).

2. Main Points

2.1 Scottish bus and coach services:- travelled 557 million vehicle kilometres in 1997-98, 4% more than in the previous year. travelled 18% further than in 1987-88, compared with a 14% rise for Great Britain as a whole.

2.2 The distance travelled by local bus services in Scotland:- was 368 million vehicle kilometres in 1997-98, the same as in the previous year. has increased by 12% in ten years, the same as the increase in Great Britain. per head of population in 1997-98 was 56% higher than Great Britain. on subsidised services has increased by 21% over the past 10years, compared with 4% in Great Britain outwith London.

2.3 The total number of passenger journeys on local bus services in Scotland:- was 438 million in 1997-98, 6% less than in the previous year. fell by 32% between 1987-88 and 1997-98, compared with 18% in Great Britain and 26% for Great Britain outwith London. represented 86 journeys per head of population in 1997-98, 13% higher than the corresponding figure for Great Britain.

2.4 In real terms, fares on local bus services in Scotlandwere 4% higher in 1997-98 than in the previous year. They increased by 16% over the past ten years, compared with 19% in Great Britain. Over the same period, motoring costs rose by only 3% in real terms.

2.5 Passenger receipts from Scottish bus and coach services totalled £412 million in 1997-98, in real terms 3% more than the previous year due to a rise in income from non-local services. However, in real terms, they were 7% less than ten years earlier. Local bus passenger receipts in Scotland in 1997-98 were £296 million and, in real terms, fell by 15% over the past ten years, compared with no change for Great Britain, and a fall of 7% for Great Britain outwith London.

2.6 Public transport support for local bus services in Scotland in 1997-98 at £28million was 15% less in real terms than in 1987-88, compared with falls of 57% for Great Britain, and 36% for Great Britain outwith London.

2.7 In Scotland, over the past ten years, the number of 17-35seat buses has increased from an estimated 800to 1,500, and staff numbers have fallen by 15%. In consequence,operating costs per vehicle kilometre were 38% lower in real terms than ten years earlier.

3. Commentary

3.1 Distance travelled - by type of service (Table 1.1)

Scottish bus and coach services travelled 557 million vehicle kilometres in 1997-98, 4% more than in the previous year. There was an increase of 18% since 1987-88, compared with a 14% rise in the corresponding figure for Great Britain as a whole.

The distance travelled by local bus services in Scotland in 1997-98 was 368 million vehicle kilometres, the same as in the previous year, and 12% higher than in 1987-88.The increase in distance travelled over the past ten years in Great Britain was also 12%.

The distance travelled by other (non-local) Scottish bus services in 1997-98 was 189 million vehicle kilometres, 14% more than in the previous year. Over the past ten years, the distance travelled by other (non-local) Scottish bus services rose by 30%, which is more than the 18% increase in other (non-local) bus services in Great Britain as a whole.

3.2 Local bus services - distance travelled per head of population (Table1.2)

The distance travelled by local bus services per head of population has been consistently higher in Scotland than Great Britain.In 1997-98 it was 72vehicle kilometres per capita in Scotland compared with 46 in Great Britain, and so is 56% higher in Scotland.

3.3 Local bus services - Commercial and Subsidised services’ distance travelled (Table 1.2)

The distance travelled by commercial local bus services in 1997-98 was similar to that of the previous year, and was 10% higher than in 1987-88.

The distance travelled by subsidised local bus services in 1997-98 increased by 3% on the previous year, making it the highest level since these records began, 21% higher than in 1987-88.The corresponding rise in "Great Britain outside London" since 1987-88 was 4%, a much smaller increase than in Scotland.

The subsidised local bus services’ share of the total distance travelled by all local bus services in 1997-98 was about 16% in Scotland, with a similar share in "Great Britain outside London".

3.4 Passenger journeys - local bus services (Table 2.1)

The number of passenger journeys on local bus services has continued to fall. In Scotland, there were 438 million passenger journeys on local bus services in 1997-98. This was 6% less than the previous year, a greater fall than the 0.3% decrease for Great Britain as a whole. Since 1993-94, passenger numbers have declined more rapidly in Scotland (down 17%) than in Great Britain as a whole (down 1%). The Scottish total for 1997-98 was 32% less than in 1987-88. The corresponding fall over the past ten years in Great Britain of 18% was less than in Scotland, as was the fall for "Great Britain outside London" of 26%.

The number of passenger journeys on local bus services in Scotland in 1997-98 represented 86 journeys per head of population, compared with 76 per head of population for Great Britain, and so is 13% higher in Scotland. However, the difference between Scotland and Great Britain as a whole has been reducing: in 1993-94 the Scottish figure was 32% higher than the figure for Great Britain.

3.5 Passenger Fares (Table 3.1)

Bus passenger fares on local services in Scotland in 1997-98 increased in real terms by 4% over the previous year, compared with a 2% increase in Great Britain. The increase in fares in real terms over the past ten years in Scotland was 16%, which is less than the 19% rise for Great Britain.

3.6 Passenger price indices for different modes of Transport - in Great Britain (Table 3.2)

While fares for local bus services in Great Britain have risen by 19% in real terms since 1987-88, and on rail by a similar 20%, motoring costs in Great Britain have, in real terms, increased by only 3% over the period.(A corresponding range of price indices for Scotland is not available.)

3.7 Passenger receipts (Tables 4.1 and 4.2)

The total of Scottish bus and coach service passenger receipts, from local and other services was £412million in 1997-98, in real terms 3% more than the previous year, but 7% less than ten years earlier.

Passenger receipts on local bus services were £296 million in 1997-98, a slight fall in real terms on the previous year and of 15% over ten years.However, the picture was different for other (non-local) bus and coach services, for which passenger receipts in 1997-98 were £116 million, in real terms 14% higher than the previous year, and 27% higher than in 1987-88.

The fall in real terms in local bus service passenger receipts over the past ten years was much greater in Scotland than in Great Britain and, to a lesser extent, Great Britain outwith London. In Scotland, the fall in real terms since 1987-88 was 15%, in Great Britain outwith London 7%, and in Great Britain the passenger receipts were similar to that in 1987-88.

3.8 Public Transport Support - Local Bus Services (Table 5.2)

The public transport support for local bus services in Scotland in 1997-98 was £28million, in real terms a 7% decrease on the previous year, and 15% less than ten years earlier. In Great Britain, the fall in support over the period was 57% in real terms (36% for Great Britain outwith London).

3.9 Concessionary Fare Reimbursement - Local Bus Services (Table 5.3)

Concessionary fare reimbursement on local bus services in Scotland in 1997-98 was £43million, in real terms 4% less than the previous year, and 33% less than in 1987-88.In Great Britain there was a decrease of 6% in real terms over the past ten years.

3.10 Operating costs per vehicle kilometre- local bus services (Table 6.1)

The estimated average operating cost (excluding depreciation) of local bus services in Scotland, was 68pence per vehicle-kilometre in 1997-98, in real terms 2% less than in the previous year, and 38% lower than tenyears earlier.

The corresponding estimated average operating cost (excluding depreciation) for Great Britain was 82pence per vehicle kilometre, and the fall in real terms over the past ten years was 33%.

3.11 Operating costs per passenger journey - local bus services (Table 6.2)

The estimated average operating cost (excluding depreciation) per passenger journey for local bus services in Scotland in 1997-98 was 57pence, in real terms a 2% increase on ten years ago.

The operating cost per passenger for Great Britain was 50 pence, less than in Scotland, and had fallen by 8% over the past ten years.

3.12 Number of buses and coaches (Table 7.1)

The number of buses and coaches in Scotland in 1997-98 was about the same as in the previous year, and the overall total was 7% higher than ten years earlier.

Over the period since 1987-88, there has been a substantial increase in the number of 17-35seat buses: in 1997-98 there were 1,500compared to an estimated 800 ten years earlier. In contrast, the number of double deckers fell from 3,000 in 1987-88 to 2,100in 1997-98.

In Great Britain, the 6% increase in the total number of buses over the past ten years was similar to Scotland’s 7% rise.The number of 17-35seat buses in Great Britain rose by 74%, and in Scotland by around 88% (calculated from the rounded estimates). The number of double deckers in Great Britain fell by 29% in ten years, and by 30% in Scotland.

3.13 Staff Employed (Table 8.1)

There were 17,000staff employed by bus and coach operators in Scotland in 1997-98, a similar number to the previous year, and 15% fewer than in 1987-88. The 15% reduction in staff in Scotland was greater than the 9% fall in Great Britain over the same period.

In both Scotland and Great Britain there was a slight increase in the number of "platform staff" (including drivers, conductors and other on-vehicle staff), and the drop in numbers occurred in maintenance and other staff.The fall in maintenance staff in Scotland in 1997-98 was 7%, making a total reduction in maintenance staff of 30% over ten years.

3.14 Local bus services: Longer term trends (Table 9.1)

Some key statistics are available for local bus services for years from 1982. However, due to changes in methods of collecting the data, figures for years prior to 1985-86, which was the last full year prior to deregulation, may be less reliable than those for later years.

While the distance travelled (vehicle kilometres) by local bus services in Scotland has increased by 28% since 1982, the number of passenger journeys has decreased by 37% over the same period.

For Great Britain as a whole, the distance travelled (vehicle kilometres) rose by 25%, and the number of passenger journeys fell by 21%.

4. Notes and Sources

In the tables, ".." indicates "not available", and "-" indicates "nil or negligible".

Where figures are rounded, a total which was calculated by adding together the "unrounded" versions of the underlying numbers, and then rounding the result, may appear to differ from the sum of its parts. Similarly, there may appear to be minor discrepancies in the case of percentages calculated from "unrounded" underlying numbers.

"Local" bus service: one which is available to the general public, where passengers pay separate fares and travel a radial distance no greater than 15 miles / 24 kilometres from the point of boarding. (For the earliest years, these figures are for the former category of "stage" services. The definitions of the types of service changed on 6 January 1986, when the term "local service" replaced the former term "stage service".)

"Other services": include contract, private hire, express journeys, excursions and tours which are not registered as local services.

Passenger journeys: each trip made by a passenger on one vehicle on one route counts as a separate journey. Return tickets therefore count as two passenger journeys. The numbers of passenger journeys using season tickets or travel passes may be estimated by operators.

Vehicle kilometres: estimates include some categories of empty running of buses (eg between garage and terminus) but exclude driver instruction and vehicle testing.

Local bus fare indices: Information about the size of each fares change is supplied by a panel of large operators. Indices are obtained by averaging charges using weights based on receipts from passengers (excluding concessionary fare reimbursement from local authorities). In theory, therefore, the index measures the change in the average charge to the fare-paying passenger.

Commercial services: are those run without direct financial support from a local transport authority. They are still eligible for central Government subsidy in the form of fuel duty rebate and (where applicable) for concessionary fare reimbursement from local transport authorities.

Subsidised services: are those considered socially necessary and run under contract to local transport authorities with some direct subsidy. They include a few services subsidised without competitive tendering, under Section 91 of the Transport Act 1985 (‘de minimis’ arrangements).

Concessionary fare reimbursement: Local authorities and PTAs are able to provide concessionary fare schemes for groups such as elderly people and disabled people and (since 26 October 1986) children. Authorities reimburse operators for revenue lost as a result of their participation in the schemes, after taking into account income from the extra travel generated. The reimbursement by authorities should be seen as a subsidy to the passenger, not to the operator. These schemes should not be confused with the reductions offered to children, for example, by many operators on commercial grounds.

Staff employed: Platform staff comprise drivers, conductors and any other on-vehicle staff; maintenance staff include all employees engaged on cleaning, repair, service or maintenance of vehicles, while other staff include administrative staff. There may be some duplication of functions, particularly amongst the smaller operators.

The Public Service Vehicle Operator Annual Return

The basis for most of the statistics in this Bulletin is the annual returns which a sample of Public Service Vehicle operators make to the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions (DETR). Further information is contained in the DETR publications "Transport Statistics Great Britain" and "Focus on Public Transport" (the latter has replaced DETR’s annual "Bus and Coach Statistics Great Britain", with effect from the 1997-98 edition). Enquiries regarding the statistics should be made to Paul O’Hara of DETR (tel: 0171 890 3076).

With effect from the 1997-98 survey, the sample includes all operators who are licensed to run 30 or more vehicles, plus random samples of smaller operators (selected with probabilities depending upon their numbers of vehicles - eg 5% of those with one vehicle, 20% of those with five vehicles, 40% of those with 10-14 vehicles).

The survey’s design aims to achieve the required coverage for Great Britain as a whole. The sampling is based purely upon the size of the operator’s fleet (in terms of the number of licence discs) and takes no account of where in Great Britain the operator is based. The figures for Scotland for non-local services are derived from the returns made by the operators who are based in Scotland, and so will include services into England which are run by operators based in Scotland, and will exclude services into Scotland which are run by operators based in England. (NB: a large group, such as Stagecoach, is not treated as a single operator: there will be a separate statistical return for each of its subsidiary companies.)

Estimation of certain breakdowns, in cases where the survey does not collect information for smaller operators

In order to reduce the burden on respondents to the survey, the smaller operators receive a simplified questionnaire, which does not ask for certain pieces of information. For example, smaller operators supply only an overall total figure for their income from local services: unlike the larger operators, they do not provide a breakdown between "passenger receipts", "public transport support", "concessionary fare reimbursement", "contract payments" and "fuel duty rebate".

In order to produce overall totals for the different types of income from local services, DETR must estimate the breakdown of local service income between these headings for the smaller operators. DETR does this by assuming that, for each small operator which responds to the survey, the percentage breakdown of income between these headings is the same as the overall national (GB) percentage breakdown of such income for all the large operators taken together. Thus, if "passenger receipts" accounted for (say) 80% of the total local service income of all large operators in GB, DETR would assume (for the purposes of estimating the overall totals) that passenger receipts accounted for 80% of the local service income of each of the smaller operators who responded to the survey.

The survey obtains, from the larger operators, information about their expenditure (operating expenditure on local services and on other services, administration expenditure and depreciation). It does not ask the smaller operators to provide this, but the effect of this on the calculation of costs per vehicle kilometre and per passenger journey is thought to be small.

Estimation of totals for all smaller operators, by "grossing-up" the returns from the smaller operators

The figures for each smaller operator (including those income breakdown figures which DETR estimated - see above) are "grossed-up" using a grossing-up factor which is the inverse of the achieved sampling fraction. For example, as roughly 5% of the smallest operators respond to the survey, the grossing-up factor for them will be about 20. (While the aim may be to sample 1-in-20 of the smallest operators, the survey is unlikely to obtain returns from exactly 1 in 20 of them: for example, if there were 250 such operators, and 12 of them were chosen for the survey and made returns, the grossing-up factor would be 250 divided by 12, which is about 20.8).