| Looking Ahead - Future Housing
Requirements |
| 1.29
Understanding both the past and present plays an
important part in providing the context for developing
housing policies, but they do not always provide a useful
guide to the specific needs of the future. This section
therefore looks at the demographic and some of the other
changes which we can expect to see over the coming years,
and the housing requirements that Scotland faces as a
consequence. |
| |
| Population and Household
Projections |
1.30 Demographic trends are one of the most
important influences on the volume and type of housing
required. In June 1996, Scotland had an estimated
population of just over 5.1 million people. The
population is projected to fall very slightly over the
next decade or so (to just under 5.1 million). In common
with many developed countries, the average age of
Scotland's population is projected to rise with the
continued increase in life expectancy and the decrease in
the number of births. Three demographic trends stand out:
- a decline in the
number of persons in their teens and 20s a decade
from now;
- an increase in the
number of people aged between 45 and 59 years;
and,
- a steady increase in
the number of older people.
|
| 1.31
Scotland's population is, therefore, relatively stable
but ageing. Yet the national picture masks distinct
regional and local demographic trends. The population has
steadily declined in the west and the south and increased
in the east, north east and some parts of the Highlands.
Government projections suggest that this trend will
continue over the next decade. In addition, the trend of
out-migration from urban centres to suburban and rural
areas continues. At the local level Scotland's population
mix varies greatly. For example, although only 1.25% of
the population in 1991 were from ethnic minorities the
overwhelming majority live in urban areas. |
| 1.32
At present, Scotland's five million people live in just
over 2.1 million households. The number of households is
projected to increase by 10% to 2.35 million by 2010,
with this increase almost entirely due to the growth in
the number of smaller households - single person
households and households with two or more adults and no
children (see Figure 1.3). Such households accounted for
over 70% of all Scottish households in 1996 and their
number is projected to rise to almost 80% by 2010. An
increasing proportion of these households will be headed
by a person aged 65 or over. The proportion of single
parent families is, in contrast, projected to remain
stable at 6% of all households in Scotland. |
| |
| Figure 1.3 |
 |
1.33
The projected growth in the total number of households
between 1996 and 2010 across Scotland hides a varied
regional picture, with West Lothian and Aberdeenshire
showing the largest projected increases of over 20% and
Dundee City, East Ayrshire, Glasgow City and West
Dunbartonshire showing the smallest projected increases
of between 2 and 4%. In Inverclyde, however, the number
of households is projected to decrease by 4% over the
same period. 1.34
Estimating the number of households in the future is a
far from straightforward process. The official
projections are based on past trends in household
formation amongst different sections of the population
based on data from the Census. Yet the decision to form
households is the result of a series of individual
choices made on the basis of economic, social and
cultural factors and, indeed, Government policy and the
availability of housing itself. There can, therefore, be
no guarantee that the projections will provide a reliable
guide to future household numbers but they, nonetheless,
provide a useful indication of possible future trends.
|
| Source: Scottish Office, Statistical
Bulletin (Housing Series), HSG/1998/5 |
| |
| Cost of Remedying House Condition
Defects |
| 1.35
The total bill for repairing and modernising the occupied
and vacant stock over the next 10 years is estimated,
through the 1996 Scottish House Condition Survey, to be
approximately £7.9 billion. Of this, £5.3 billion
relates to housing in the private sector (owner-occupied
and privately rented), almost £2.1 billion to public
rented housing and £0.2 billion to housing association
dwellings and the remainder on vacant housing where
tenure information was not available. The figure of £7.9
billion is, however, a minimum cost and Scottish Homes
estimates that the level of investment needed in the
stock over the next 10 years could be substantially
higher. The cost of tackling "urgent
disrepairs", i.e. those that need to be done
immediately if further deterioration is not to result or
those required to protect the health or safety of the
occupants, is estimated at £530 million. |
| |
| Future Housing Requirements |
| 1.36
The number of new socially rented houses built annually
in Scotland has fallen dramatically over the last 30
years. From a figure of 34,900 in 1970, the number of new
dwellings completed fell to 8,600 per annum in the late
1970s, approximately 4,000 per annum in the late 1980s
and early 1990s and 3,000 per annum in recent years.
Whereas in the 1970s, almost all new rented houses were
built by local authorities, New Towns or the former SSHA,
most new building is now undertaken by housing
associations with financial support from Scottish Homes. |
| 1.37
At first sight there might appear to be relatively little
need for further new local authority or housing
association rented housing in Scotland. As this chapter
indicated earlier, there is already a crude overall
surplus of housing in Scotland. Moreover, although the
total number of households is projected to increase by an
average of approximately 15,000 per annum in the period
from 1996 to 2010, the level of new housebuilding in the
private sector has resulted in between 17,000 and 18,500
completions per annum in recent years. Unless there is a
significant increase in demolitions, currently running at
approximately 4,000 houses per annum, or a reduction in
private sector building then, for Scotland as a whole,
the growth in the housing stock should match the
projected growth in households with relatively little
contribution to new building from the socially rented
sector. |
| 1.38
This very crude arithmetic provides a starting point for
considering new building requirements, but it is flawed
in a number of important respects. It takes no account of
the affordability of the housing provided. Nor does it
take account of local variations; many of the existing
local authority houses are in the wrong place or of the
wrong type. For example, there is a surplus in certain
parts of the west of Scotland and in Dundee with local
shortages of affordable rented housing in other areas
such as the north east and some rural areas. There are
also more general shortfalls of housing for community
care groups and, although there is scope for meeting some
of these needs through adaptations to the existing stock
and the provision of the right kind of support, there is
nonetheless likely to be a continuing requirement for
some new housing such as wheelchair housing or very
sheltered housing for the frail elderly. More
fundamentally, because of the low level of new building
in recent years, the average age of the publicly rented
stock has increased considerably. Over time, this may
well tip the balance increasingly towards demolition and
replacement as the most cost-effective option compared
with repair and modernisation. |
| |
| National Housing Needs Assessment |
| 1.39
Building on the results of the 1996 Scottish House
Condition Survey, the Scottish Office and Scottish Homes
are currently undertaking a detailed national housing
needs assessment in consultation with the Convention of
Scottish Local Authorities (COSLA), the Chartered
Institute of Housing (CIOH), Shelter Scotland and the
Scottish Federation of Housing Associations (SFHA) and
the results of this work should be available for the new
Scottish Executive in 1999. National estimates, however,
can only provide a very broad context to the
consideration of housing needs. The requirement for new
affordable rented housing and low cost owner-occupied
housing built with public subsidy, and the type of houses
required have to be assessed at the local level by local
councils working closely with Scottish Homes regional
staff and other relevant interests. However, it is clear
that despite the priority that must be attached at both
central and local government level to improving the
existing stock, there is a need for a continuing
programme of new building affordable rented accommodation
and low cost owner-occupied housing to meet the
requirements of the population. The national housing
needs assessment may help to clarify the scale and nature
of this future requirement, but in broad terms there
would appear to be a continuing requirement for a new
building programme over the next five to ten years of at
least current levels (some 5,000-6,000 houses per annum). |
| |
| Summary of Future Requirements |
1.40 From what we are able to forecast of
the future we need to take the following factors
particularly into account:
- current projections
suggest that the number of households in Scotland
will increase by 10% by 2010, although there are
considerable local variations. Households will
tend to be smaller and, on average, older than in
the past;
- there is a continuing
need for significant levels of expenditure on
housing in Scotland, and this will need to come
from both public and private sectors, as well as
from individual owners and tenants;
- there is likely to be
a continuing requirement for a new building
programme of affordable rented housing and low
cost owner-occupied housing built with public
subsidy of at least 5,000-6,000 houses per annum;
and,
- the national housing
needs assessment will provide more information
about the nature and scale of Scotland's housing
requirements over the coming years.
|
| |
| Public
Investment in Housing |
| 1.41
Although this chapter has already made clear that there
will be an on-going need for private owners and the
private sector generally to contribute financial
resources to meeting Scotland's future housing
requirements, nonetheless much of the necessary finance
will still need to come from the public purse in one form
or another. |
| 1.42 Public support for housing is broadly
of two types: so-called "bricks and mortar"
expenditure on the provision of housing itself and
"personal subsidies" which provide assistance
to households to meet their housing costs. These two
forms of support are outlined in more detail below: a. "Bricks and mortar"
expenditure by local authorities on their own stock
through the Housing Revenue Account (HRA), Housing
Support Grant (a subsidy paid to those local authorities
which, on the basis of certain assumptions, would have a
deficit between income from rents and expenditure on
their housing stock) and Scottish Homes expenditure
funded through its grant-in-aid. This is usually known as
"net housing expenditure". In addition, there
will also be capital expenditure funded from resources
generated by local authorities or (in the past) Scottish
Homes - for example from receipts from sales - and local
authority expenditure on grants and loans to the private
sector.
b. "Personal
subsidies" usually refers to State subsidies on
housing expenditure by households (principally Housing
Benefit which can meet all or part of tenants' rents and
Income Support for Mortgage Interest which meets the
mortgage interest payments of those home owners who are
eligible for Income Support benefit). It also refers to
Mortgage Interest Tax Relief (or MIRAS) which provides
home owners with tax relief on the interest of their
mortgage.
|
| 1.43
The Government inherited net spending plans of
£464million for 1997-982. It is a measure of
the importance that this Government accords to housing
that significant extra resources of £66 million (for New
Housing Partnerships, the Empty Homes and Rough Sleepers
Initiatives and for energy efficiency measures) have
already been made available for housing in Scotland since
May 1997. In the event, total net housing expenditure in
1997-98 was £517 million. In addition, self-generated
local authority expenditure amounted to just over £130
million and authorities used £56 million for expenditure
on private sector grants and loans. A further £1.2
billion was in the form of personal subsidies, of which
Housing Benefit accounted for just over £1 billion. |
| 1.44
In addition an extra £300 million is to be devoted to
housing and regeneration in Scotland over the three years
(1999-2002) following the Comprehensive Spending Review.
By the end of this period, therefore, net public sector
housing expenditure in Scotland is expected to be around
£640 million a year, or almost 40% above the planned
level inherited in 1997/98 (excluding receipts). |
| |
| Conclusions |
| 1.45
This chapter has provided the context for the policy
proposals which are set out in the remainder of this
Green Paper. The overview of housing in Scotland - past,
present, and future - reveals that the nature of the
problems and opportunities which we need to face up to
has changed considerably over time and can be expected to
change again. The past century has seen a variety of
approaches by Government, both central and local. Some
approaches have worked better than others, but it is
clear that what is needed now is a new approach and new
solutions which will deliver modern housing appropriate
to Scotland in the 21st century, will tackle and meet the
needs of the socially excluded, and will promote a more
pleasant and sustainable environment. |
| |
| Footnotes |
| 1
This is as defined in the General Household Survey. The
SHCS bedroom standard calculates the minimum number of
bedrooms required by the people resident in a dwelling,
taking into account their ages and the nature of their
relationships as far as is possible. It then compares
this number with the number of bedrooms available in the
dwelling. |
| 2
Further details of housing expenditure can be found in
The Scottish Office, Serving Scotland's Needs which is
published annually. |
