| Commentary |
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| 1. Trends in the numbers of Road Accidents and
Casualties |
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| 1.1 Main Points |
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| Table 1 provides figures for the population
of Scotland, the numbers of vehicles licenced, the total road length in Scotland, the
numbers of injury road accidents, the numbers of vehicles involved and the numbers of
casualties. The numbers of injury road accidents were first recorded separately in 1966,
while the numbers of casualties are available back to 1938. Information on the severities
of the accidents, and of the injuries suffered by the casualties, is provided in Table 2.
The trends since 1966 in the numbers of injury road accidents and the numbers of
casualties are illustrated in Figures 1 and 2. Figure 3 shows how the numbers of
casualties have changed since 1981, and how they compare with the average for the period
1981-85. Figure 3 also indicates how much progress has been made towards the Government's
target of reducing the number of casualties by one-third from the 1981-85 average level by
the year 2000. |
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| The numbers of injury road accidents have
fallen in most of the past few years. However, there was an increase in 1997. The number
of fatal accidents rose slightly to 340, but this number was still the third lowest on
record. The number of serious injury accidents (3,311) was the lowest since the records of
the numbers of injury road accidents began, having fallen by more than 50% since 1980. The
number of "slight injury" accidents (12,990) in 1997 was slightly higher than
the level of the previous few years. |
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| The number of people fatally injured in road
accidents in Scotland in 1997 was 377, the third lowest number recorded for at least 50
years. The figures show a clear long-term downward trend. The 1997 figure was 41% below
the 1981-85 average number of fatalities per year. |
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| There were 4,046 people recorded as seriously
injured in road accidents in 1997. This is the second lowest number since records of the
numbers of serious injuries began in 1950, and is 51% below the 1981-85 average level. |
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| In 1997, 18,197 people were recorded as
slightly injured. This is lower than most of the figures recorded in the past 40 years.
However, it was 5% more than in 1996, and is only slightly below the 1981-85 average
level. |
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| The total number of casualties in 1997 was
22,620, which was 4% more than in 1996, but was still the fifth lowest figure in the past
40 years. It was 17% below the 1981-85 average level. |
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| The reductions in the numbers of accidents
and casualties compared with the 1981-85 annual averages are even more significant given
that the number of vehicles licensed in Scotland in 1997 was around 35% higher than the
1981-85 average, and traffic on major roads in Scotland in 1997 was estimated to have
grown by around a third since 1987. |
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| 1.2 Accidents |
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| In 1966 there were just over 23,200 injury
road accidents and the annual total remained around this level until 1973. Numbers then
dropped considerably in 1974 and 1975 to about 20,600. This was the time of a fuel crisis
when a national speed limit of 50mph was introduced and the volume of traffic in Great
Britain fell by 3% in 1974. Accident numbers increased again in 1976 and reached a peak of
nearly 23,100 in 1979. |
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| In the early 1980s numbers began to fall, and
did so particularly sharply in 1983 when the total number of injury accidents fell by 7%
in a single year to 19,400, serious accidents fell by 13% to just over 6,400, and fatal
accidents fell by 11% to 568. The year 1983 was when the 1981 Transport Act came into
force and changed the law relating to drink driving, with the introduction of evidential
breath testing. Compulsory front seat belt wearing and new procedures for licensing
learner motor cyclists were also introduced in 1983. After 1983 the total number of injury
accidents increased again to over 20,600 in 1985, and the number of serious accidents rose
to just over 6,500 while fatal accidents continued to fall. |
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| In 1987 the Government adopted a target to
reduce road casualties by one third from the 1981-85 annual average by the year 2000 (see
the Introduction). The 1981-85 annual average for the total number of injury accidents was
just under 20,500, for serious accidents it was just over 6,800, and for fatal accidents
it was 581. |
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| By 1987 the total number of injury accidents
had fallen to under 18,700, 9% less than the 1981-85 average, but in 1989 it was up again
to just over 20,600, just above the 1981-85 average. |
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| 1989 was the most recent peak in the total
number of injury accidents. (In contrast, in 1989, serious accidents, at just over 5,800,
and fatal accidents, at 496, were both 15% less than the 1981-85 average.) Since 1989, the
total number of injury accidents has fallen in 6 out of 8 years, and in 1996 it was at the
lowest level ever recorded. The 1997 figure of 16,641 was 3.6% more than in 1996, but 19%
less than the 1981-85 annual average. |
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| In recent years, the numbers of fatal
accidents have fallen considerably: from the 1981-85 average level of 581 to 316 in 1996
which was the lowest ever recorded. In 1997, there was a rise of 8% to 340, but this is
the still the third lowest figure ever recorded, and 41% below the 1981-85 average. |
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| For serious accidents, the trend has also
been downwards, from just over 6,800 for the 1981-85 average. The 1997 figure of 3,311 is
the lowest ever recorded, and is 52% below the 1981-85 average. |
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| The numbers of slight accidents have not
changed so much over the years: while sometimes rising and sometimes falling, they have
remained between 12,000 and 15,000 since 1970. The 1997 figure of 12,990 was the highest
since 1992, and was only slightly lower than the 1981-85 average of almost 13,100. |
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| 1.3 Casualties |
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| As the numbers of accidents have fallen, so
have the numbers of casualties. Therefore, this section does not repeat the previous
section's detailed analysis of the way in which the numbers have changed over the past 30
years. |
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| Numbers fatally injured |
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| The number of people fatally injured in road
accidents in Scotland in 1997 was 377. This is the third lowest number for at least 50
years. With a few exceptions, there has been a fall in each year since 1978. The figures
show a clear, steady long-term downward trend, which is occasionally interrupted in a year
like 1997, when there was an increase over the previous year. For that reason, the
increase of 6% in one year between 1996 (when there were 357 deaths) and 1997 is not a
typical annual change. |
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| The 1997 figure was 41% below the 1981-85
average number of fatalities per year, and therefore the Government's target of a
one-third reduction by the year 2000 has already been reached. |
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| Numbers seriously injured |
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| There were 4,046 people recorded as seriously
injured in road accidents in 1997. This is the second lowest number since records of the
numbers of serious injuries began in 1950. |
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| The 1997 figure is 51% below the 1981-85
average, so this target has been reached before the year 2000. |
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| Numbers slightly injured |
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| There were 18,197 people recorded as slightly
injured in 1997. This is 5% more than in 1996 but, the number of people with slight
injuries is well below the most recent short-term peak level (which was over 20,000 in
1990) and it has also fallen over the longer term: the 1997 figure was lower than most
recorded in the past 40 years. |
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| The 1997 figure is only 0.3% below the
1981-85 average, and so is considerably above the year 2000 target. |
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| Total numbers of casualties |
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| The total number of casualties (of all
severities) in 1997 was 22,620, was 4% more than in 1996. It has however, fallen markedly
from the level of the most recent "short-term" peak (which was over 27,000 in
1989 and 1990). |
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| The 1997 total was 17% below the 1981-85
average, and therefore above the target line. |
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