| Introduction |
|
| This publication presents
statistics, for 1997 and earlier years, of the numbers of injury road accidents (that is,
road accidents in which one or more people are injured or killed) which were recorded by
the police in Scotland. Each accident is classified according to the severity of the
injury to the most seriously injured casualty who was involved in the accident. |
| Following this Introduction, this
publication has three parts. The first is a commentary, which includes sections on the
trends in the numbers of road accidents and casualties, more detailed analyses (of the
numbers of accidents, of the statistics about motorists, and of the numbers of casualties)
and comparisons of the Scottish figures with those of some other countries. The second
part consists of the charts and statistical tables. The third part includes a number of
annexes, such as a calendar of events affecting road traffic, some notes on the collection
of road accident statistics, the definitions of various terms used in the returns and in
the analyses, and background information about the changes to the trunk road network.
There is also an Index, and some information about some other Scottish Office
publications. |
|
| Main changes in this edition |
|
New tables have been
included to show:
- international comparisons by age groups (Table F)
- drink-drive accidents and casualties (Table 26)
- casualties by speed limit, mode of transport and severity
(Table 37)
|
|
Three tables which
were included in the 1996 edition have been dropped, because the information that they
contain can be obtained from other tables (either directly, or by calculation from the
figures in other tables):
- 1996's Table 7, because the information could be obtained
from 1996's Table 8
- 1996's Table 10, because the information could be obtained
from 1996's Table 9
- 1996's Table 38, because the information could be obtained
from 1996's Table 37
|
|
In addition, the
following tables have been modified to provide more information:
- Table 14: a breakdown by type of road has been added
- Table 18: a breakdown by junction detail and type of vehicle
has been added
- Table 22: numbers of car drivers have been added
- Table 29: "Car" has been separately identified
|
|
| In some cases, some percentages
or changes between years (which can be calculated from other figures in the table) have
been dropped to make room for the additional information. |
|
| The status of the statistics |
|
| The data from which the
statistics in this publication were compiled were extracted from the Road Accidents
statistical database towards the end of July 1998. The statistics given here may therefore
differ slightly from the statistics published elsewhere (such as in the statistical
bulletin "Key Road Accident Statistics") because they were extracted from the
database on a different date, and the database may have changed between the two dates due
to (eg) late returns, or due to late corrections being made to returns which had been
received earlier. For similar reasons, the statistics given in this publication for 1996
and earlier years may differ slightly from the previously-published figures for those
years. |
|
| The years covered in the
tables |
|
| Some tables have figures for
several individual years (eg for each year from 1993 to 1997) so that any trends in the
key statistics can be seen. However, the more detailed tables provide figures only in the
form of 5-year annual averages (for the years 1993-97), and do not give figures for the
latest single year. If readers need versions of the detailed tables for single years, they
can be provided on request (a charge may be made). |
|
| Some of the detailed tables in
earlier editions have not been repeated since because, in most cases, the statistics do
not vary significantly between years. A list of statistics covered in more detail in
previous editions can be found at the end of the Index. It is not known whether any of
these tables will be updated in subsequent editions. Readers may request updated versions
of such tables (for which a charge may be made). |
|
| Some of the tables giving the
numbers of drivers who were breath-tested have figures for 1985 and 1986, then a gap of
several years, and then figures for the latest few years. The years 1985 and 1986 were
included in these tables because, in December 1985, the Scottish Police authorities
introduced a policy of breath-testing all drivers involved in an accident, wherever
possible. |
|
| The Government's target for
reducing Road Accident casualties by the year 2000: comparisons with the annual averages
for 1981-85 |
|
| In many of the tables, the
figures for 1997, or the annual averages for 1993 to 1997, are compared with the annual
averages for 1981-85. This is done because, in 1987, the Government adopted the target of
reducing the number of road casualties by one third from the 1981-85 average level by the
year 2000. One way to assess progress towards this target is to compare actual casualties
in each year after 1987 with an indicative line starting at the actual number of
casualties in 1987 (the year of adopting the target), and assuming a constant percentage
reduction in each subsequent year, down to the target figure for the year 2000. On this
target line, total casualty numbers for the year 1997 should be about 28% below the
1981-85 average. |
|
| This "target line" is not
a straight line, because each year's fall is calculated by applying a constant percentage
reduction to the target line's number of casualties in the previous year (which reduces
each year). The total number of casualties in the year 2000 would be two-thirds of the
1981-85 average level if there were a constant reduction of about 2.38% (compound) each
year after 1987. The calculation of the 2.38% is as follows: |
| 1981-85 average total number of
casualties |
27,142 |
| 1987 total number of casualties |
24,748 |
| Target for year 2000 (two-thirds
of 1981-85 average) |
18,095 |
| percentage of number in 1987 |
73.1% |
| percentage reduction required
from 1987 to 2000 |
26.9% |
| Implied annual percentage
reduction in each of 13 years |
2.38% (compound) |
|
| The calculation of the 1997
"target line" figure is as follows. As 1997 is ten years after 1987, the 1997
"target line" figure is found by applying a compound reduction of 2.38% per year
for ten years to the 1987 figure of 24,748. The result is a 1997 "target line"
figure of 19,451 which is 28.3% below the 1981-85 average of 27,142. |
|
| Repeating this calculation for
different types of casualty gives different annual percentage reductions. This is because,
in each case, the 1987 actual figure, which is the "starting position" for the
line, represents a different percentage of the 1981-85 average level. It follows that one
needs a different value for each type of casualty for the constant compound percentage
reduction each year after 1987 in order for its year 2000 figure to be two-thirds of the
1981-85 average level for that type of casualty. |
|
| Local Government
re-organisation |
|
| The reorganisation of local
government established new Councils with effect from 1st April 1996, to replace the former
Regions, Districts and Island Areas. Statistics back to 1981 for the areas covered by the
new Councils were derived in three ways: |
| a. in the case of the former
Island Areas, by allocating all the accidents which occurred in each Island Area to the
relevant Council. b. in those cases where a whole
District fell in a new Council's area, byallocating all the accidents which occurred in
that District to the area of the new Council.
c. in the case of accidents occurring in the five Districts
which had major parts falling in several new Councils' areas, by a special exercise, which
used the grid reference recorded for each individual accident to allocate it to the area
of one of the new Councils, using a computer mapping system. This was successful for 99%
of accidents for these five Districts, consistently over all years from 1981. The
remaining 1% of the accidents in the five Districts were assigned to the new Council in
which the majority of the District's accidents fell.This should cause only a very small
error (considerably less than 1%) for any of the new Councils, in any year. |
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