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REVIEW OF THE SCOTTISH CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAMME: A CONSULTATION

UK AND SCOTTISH GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

UK emissions trends

15. The emissions estimates provided in this report are disaggregated by source category. NETCEN (a division of AEA Technology plc), which compiles emissions data on behalf of the Department for Environment and Rural Affairs and the Devolved Administrations, also provide estimates of CO₂ emissions for the UK by final user but these are not available for Scotland. To provide estimates by final user a simple pro rata method is used to re-allocate estimated emissions from power stations and other fuel processing industries to final users of delivered energy. This method does not take into account higher emissions from increased coal and oil-fired generation used to meet peak domestic demand for electricity. Hence emissions by final user are subject to more uncertainty than those by source and should only be used to give a broad indication by sector. As an example, figures for the UK show that the "residential" sector accounts for 16% of CO2 emissions by source, and approximately 27% by final user.

16. Total UK greenhouse gas emissions in 2003 are provisionally estimated to have fallen by 14% compared to 1990. Emissions of CO₂ for 2003 are estimated to have been about 7% lower than in 1990¹⁴. Figure 1 shows emissions of carbon dioxide and the basket of greenhouse gases over the period 1990 to 2003.

Figure 1: UK GHG emissions against targets

17. The reduction in UK greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 has mainly been driven by the restructuring, especially in the energy supply industry, energy efficiency, pollution control measures in the industrial sector, and other policies to reduce emissions of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases. Without these, it is estimated that UK business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions in 2003 would have been about 16% higher, rather than 14% lower, than in 1990.

Latest projections

18. The UK Government is updating its projections for emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Details of these projections will be available in the UK Government’s consultation paper on the review of the UK Programme. See paragraph 23 for details about ongoing work on Scottish projections.

Scottish emissions trends

19. Greenhouse gas emissions data, disaggregated for the four countries of the UK, are available for the years 1990, 1995 and annually from 1998: 2002 is the latest published data. Such data allow the Executive to identify emissions levels in Scotland and their sectoral split. It also provides base data for evaluating Scotland’s contribution to the UK Programme and for monitoring the impact of Scottish policies. The Greenhouse Gas Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: 1990-2002¹⁵ were published on 29 November 2004 and summary data from this is summarised in tables 1 and 2¹⁶.

Table 1: Sectoral greenhouse gas emissions for Scotland (1990-2002) in Equivalent Mass of CO₂¹⁷ ( kt)

*totals do not sum to 100% due to rounding. Source: NETCEN

20. The emission estimates provided in this report are disaggregated by source category. NETCEN also provider estimates of CO₂ emissions for the UK by final user but these are not available for Scotland. To provide estimates by final user a simple pro rata method is used to re-allocate estimated emissions from power stations and other fuel processing industries to final users of delivered energy. This method does not take into account higher emissions from increased coal and oil-fired generation used to meet peak domestic demand for electricity. Hence emissions by final user are subject to more uncertainty than those by source and should only be used to give a broad indication by sector. As an example, figures for the UK show that the "residential" sector accounts for 16% of CO2 emissions by source, and approximately 27% by final user.

21. The latest regional inventories show that in Scotland overall emissions of greenhouse gases fell by 5.7% between base years¹⁹ and 2002. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, fell by 3.5% between 1990 and 2002, despite over a 25% growth in the Scottish economy over the same period. Scottish emissions of methane fell by 27.8% between 1990 and 2002, while emissions of nitrous oxide fell by 17.6% over the same period. Emissions of hydrofluorocarbons increased by over 400% (from 0.04 MtC to 0.2 MtC) between 1995 and 2002, while combined emissions of perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride increased by 14% over this period. Scottish emissions overall accounted for 11% of UK emissions in 2002.

22. The accuracy of regional inventories is improving year on year and there have been significant changes to the methodology used to calculate emissions from key sources in the 2002 edition.

23. The Executive is currently working with Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and the Department for Trade and Industry (Dti) to evaluate the effectiveness of existing policies and to provide updated greenhouse gas emissions figures and CO₂ projections. This work should be completed in time to inform the revised Scottish Programme.

The issue of Scottish emission reduction targets

24. On the issue of adopting a separate Scottish emissions reduction target, the Scottish Programme stated:

"We acknowledge the importance that many people place on having a separate Scottish reduction target. However, it is also fair to say that others, responding to the climate change consultation [in 2000], did not support it, recognising the practical difficulties that exist. This Programme demonstrates the complexities involved in seeking to reduce emissions and the wide range of policies involved. Many of these policies — devolved and reserved — are closely linked and it will be difficult in many cases to unravel their effects on a policy by policy basis. When we have a more robust set of data we will reassess the position and seek to interpret the inter-relationship between the effects of devolved and reserved policy measures. At that stage we will consider whether the setting of a separate Scottish target would be an appropriate part of our response measures."

25. Since the Scottish Programme was published in November 2000, we have produced carbon dioxide emissions projections for Scotland²⁰. These projections suggested that Scottish emissions totals are extremely sensitive to potential investment changes in the electricity generation market. Due to this sensitivity, the study concluded that it was difficult to predict the impact of the UK and Scottish Climate Change Programmes on Scotland; estimates for their combined effect ranged from a 4.7% reduction on 1990 emissions by 2010 to a 16.6% reduction over the same period. This difficulty in establishing robust emissions projections, which results from the small number of large power stations in Scotland (which have considerable influence on Scottish emissions), makes determining a Scottish target more complicated than is the case at the UK level, where the larger number of power stations makes the energy generation market more predictable.

26. The determination of a Scottish target is also complicated by the fact that the Executive only has full leverage over areas devolved to it, with UK Government policy decisions having a significant influence over Scottish emissions. The setting and delivering of a Scottish greenhouse gas reduction target would be correspondingly more difficult without the use of direct regulation of power emissions — a policy which would be peculiar to the Scottish economy in UK and European terms. While the EU Emissions Trading Scheme provides a form of regulation, it operates on a cap and trade basis, allowing emissions reductions to be made in the most cost-effective way. Therefore, installations covered by the Scheme are entitled to increase their emissions above their cap so long as they purchase enough emissions allowances from installations operating below their cap to offset the rise. Both of these factors mean that a number of key influences over our ability to deliver a Scottish target are effectively outwith the control of the Executive.

27. Beyond the discussion on whether we should introduce a Scottish target, the type of target (see paragraph 31 for more information) and the level at which different targets could realistically be set also need to be considered. The UK’s target under the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated at the EU level when the Community’s collective target of an 8% reduction against base years was divided between Member States. If Scotland had been negotiating its own target at this stage, separately from the UK, we would have been unlikely to have agreed the same target. Apart from the comments above, this is because direct comparisons between Scotland and the rest of the UK, in terms of emissions per capita, are not straightforward and these and other matters would have been taken into account in any such negotiations. For example, differences in geography and energy generation must be taken into account. Scotland has a disproportionate share of the UK’s carbon-rich organic soils, which results in substantially higher emissions from land use change in Scotland than elsewhere in the UK. Scotland did not experience the significant shift from coal to gas generation experienced elsewhere in the early 1990s - a policy pursued for reasons unconnected with the environment — and Scotland already has a less carbon intensive energy base with a significant proportion being supplied by hydro and nuclear power.

28. Scotland also exports a significant proportion of the electricity it generates to other parts of the UK, though the emissions associated with its generation are attributed to Scotland. While this brings economic benefits to Scotland, it means that Scotland’s energy supply emissions are higher than required to meet the country’s energy usage. This issue and those above need to be taken into account in determining the viability of a Scottish emissions reduction target, while any baseline used to support such a target would need to be set at a level appropriate for Scottish circumstances.

29. To date the Executive has not considered an emissions reduction target necessary as the Kyoto target is on the UK as a whole, with reductions being met by working in partnership with the UK Government. The Executive is also working in partnership with the UK Government to achieve the UK domestic goal of a 20% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2010. Our approach to date has been based on a commitment to make an equitable contribution to UK climate change commitments - we are matching action being taken by the UK Government on climate change, or exceeding it in some cases (e.g. a more ambitious renewables target, tighter building regulations), where we have the devolved powers to do so. However, the review of the Scottish Programme provides an opportunity to reassess our position and to seek views on whether Scottish stakeholders believe a Scottish emissions reduction target is now a practicable proposition.

30. There could be benefits associated with introducing a Scottish target. To some it would demonstrate a greater commitment to tackling climate change and perhaps provide the stimulus for more ambitious climate-friendly policies across the Executive. In addition, some form of target, with milestones, could prompt more regular reviews of the effectiveness of the Executive’s overall strategy and encourage a more coordinated framework for action.

31. Different types of targets are available. An overall target could be introduced to require a reduction in emissions by a particular deadline (perhaps in line with the first Kyoto commitment period) and against particular base years. Rolling targets could be introduced so that a particular year’s emissions are required to be a certain percentage below the previous year’s emissions. Non-carbon-specific sector targets covering action, building on existing such targets, for example, to stabilise road transport at 2001 levels by 2021, or to generate 40% of Scotland’s energy from renewable sources by 2020, could be used as a means of helping to deliver carbon reductions and of measuring the Executive’s performance it has set for itself in each of the sectors. We have yet to assess fully the implications of each of these options and would therefore welcome comments on them.

Box 2: Consultation questions on the viability of a Scottish GHG emissions reduction target

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