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REVIEW OF THE SCOTTISH CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAMME: A CONSULTATION

OVERVIEW

Evidence for climate change

9. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, made up of the world’s leading scientists, observed in its Third Assessment Report¹⁰ that "there is now stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities." Levels of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, have risen by more than a third since the industrial revolution and are now rising faster than ever before. Some examples of how our climate is already changing include:

• All of the ten warmest years since records began have occurred since 1990, including each year since 1997;
• Winter storms have doubled in the UK over the past 50 years;
• Spring plants are blooming earlier in Scotland (on average three weeks earlier since 1978¹¹).

10. Indicators of Climate Change in the UK¹², revised in January 2004, provides a list of 34 climate change indicators covering climate, socio-economic and environmental factors, e.g., temperature, precipitation, the Scottish skiing industry (number of snow days), health, and plant and animal phenology. This set of indicators is designed to raise awareness of how our climate is changing, at what pace it is changing and how it is altering the fabric of our natural and man-made world.

Expected impacts of climate change at global, UK and Scottish levels

11. The impacts of climate change in the second half of this century could be enormous unless we take urgent action to mitigate the extent of climate change through greenhouse gas emissions reductions. A concerted global response is required to tackle this global problem, with the burden of responsibility on the developed world to lead by example by cutting its emissions and to develop the technologies that will help developing countries achieve sustainable development. But, due to the nature of the climate system and to past and present levels of greenhouse gas emissions, some climate change is now inevitable, with the change over the next 30-40 years effectively determined. Therefore, it is vital that we also adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change.

International action

12. The international community has put in place a framework for action through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol, which was adopted in 1997. Implementation of the Protocol will reduce global emissions by 1-2% below business as usual by 2012. The Kyoto Protocol covers a basket of six greenhouse gases¹³.

13. The Kyoto Protocol required ratification by 55 Parties representing 55% of total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 from Annex I Parties for it to enter into force. Following Russia’s ratification of the Protocol (ratification was confirmed by President Putin on 5 November 2004), the Protocol will now enter into legal force on 16 February 2005 (90 days after Russia submitted their ratification instrument to the UN Headquarters in New York).

UK climate change commitments

14. The UK’s target under the Kyoto Protocol is to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 12.5% below base years by 2008-2012. The UK is comfortably on course to meet this target. In addition, the UK Government has a domestic goal to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 20% by 2010 (which it first set out in the UK Climate Change Programme, published in 2000) and has also pledged (in the 2003 Energy White Paper) to put the UK on a path to cut its carbon dioxide emissions by some 60% by about 2050, with real progress by 2020.

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