Published on 16th July 2014, the latest Supply, Use, Input-Output Tables and Multipliers for Scotland relate to 1998 to 2011. The tables are available in the downloads section of this site. These tables are consistent with UK Blue Book 2013 based Supply and Use Tables and Regional Accounts estimates.
Input-Output Classifications (IOC)
The industry / product detail has reduced from the previously published 104 Input-Output Classifications to 98. They continue to be on a Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities 2007 (SIC(2007)) basis. This affects construction, TV and broadcasting, oil extraction, waste management, social work and residential services.
Construction, TV and broadcasting, social work and residential care have been collapsed in line with UK Blue Book 2013 consistent Input-Output tables.
For oil extraction; historically this was a near zero output industry in Scotland. Nealy all activity was offshore and therefore classed as 'extra-regio' within the UK National Accounts. Recent onshore extraction activity within Scotland has data disclosure implications, as a result we must now add this category to ‘other mining’. Finally, ‘Remediation and waste management’; very small GVA and COE estimates generate some very high multipliers. For the 1998-2009 publication these were supressed, it seems more sensible to merge this industry with ‘Waste’.
The full list of changes is as follows:
|SIC 2007 code ||Old IOC ||Old Description ||New IOC ||New Description |
|61 to 72 ||IOC104_007 ||Oil & gas extraction, metal ores ||IOC098_007 ||Oil & gas extraction, metal ores & other |
|81 to 89 ||IOC104_008 ||Other mining |
|38 ||IOC104_050 ||Waste ||IOC098_049 ||Waste, remediation & management |
|39 ||IOC104_051 ||Remediation & waste management |
|41 ||IOC104_052 ||Construction - buildings ||IOC098_050 ||Construction |
|42 ||IOC104_053 ||Construction - civil engineering |
|43 ||IOC104_054 ||Construction - specialised |
|59 ||IOC104_067 ||Film video & TV etc ||IOC098_063 ||Film video & TV etc; broadcasting |
|60 ||IOC104_068 ||Broadcasting |
|87 ||IOC104_095 ||Residential care ||IOC098_090 ||Residential care and social work |
|88 ||IOC104_096 ||Social work |
Non-resident household expenditure in Scotland
Historically this has appeared next to the household final consumption expenditure column in the Use, Industry by Industry and Product by Product Tables. Since this expenditure is technically an export, the column has been moved to be alongside the rest of UK and rest of world exports columns, and is now included within 'total exports'.
Previous estimates were based upon ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings based Scottish employment shares. This has now changed to Scottish shares of UK banking data based on fees, commission and interest spread. These data are sourced directly from ONS and are consistent with GDP(O) short term indicator banking data.
Insurance and pensions
Previous estimates were based upon ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings based Scottish employment shares. These estimates are now based on insurance and pensions data from ONS Survey MQ5, Investment by Insurance Companies, Pension Funds and Trusts.
HHFCE and imputed rent
In line with the UK Supply and Use Tables, dwellings maintenance expenditure by households now crosses from household final consumption expenditure into imputed rent and will appear as off diagonal expenditure within that column.
Agriculture Gross Capital Formation (GCF)
The estimates for GCF for the agriculture industry are now taken directly from the Total Income from Farming data. Previously the Scottish to UK Gross Operating Surplus proportions were applied to UK agriculture estimates of GCF.
Industry by Industry Table methodology
Discussed at the Input-Output Expert Users Group Meeting in November 2013, we have changed the way we produce the symmetric Industry by Industry table to bring the methodology more in line with the recommendations within The Eurostat Manual of Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables. We have moved from a mixed technology assumption model to a fixed product sales structure model. The former is based on the approach described as Model E in the Eurostat manual (see Table 11.27), but the fixed product sales structure (Model D) is strongly preferred for IxI tables. More discussion about the methodology can be found in this Input-Output Users Group paper and Industry by Industry Tables produced using the old (Model E) methodology are available upon request.
UK Regional Accounts constraining
As with previous tables, the GVA figures are broadly equivalent to the raw SIC(2007) section level Regional Accounts figures published by the Office for National Statistics, the latest available being published in December 2013. These latest tables detailed 13 sub-sections within the manufacturing SIC(2007) section rather than the whole section estimates provided in Blue Book 2012 Regional Accounts. Please note that due to the combining of SIC(2007) 19 'Coke and petroleum' with SIC(2007) 20.14, 20.16 and 20.17 'Petrochemicals' within the Scottish Input-Output Classification system, the Regional Accounts sub-manufacturing category D 'Coke and refined petroleum products' and E 'Chemicals and chemical products' must be combined before constraining.
The final Supply and Use table estimates are based upon triangulation of ONS Regional Gross Value Added (income approach) and the full range of data sources available to the Supply Use system; Scottish National Accounts Project, quarterly GDP(O) systems and, after extensive data cleaning, the Annual Business Survey data. These other sources include data received directly from companies and other organisations. The table below highlights where Scottish Use Tables differ from the UK Blue Book 2013 consistent Regional Accounts.
Further information about the move away from full consistency with UK Regional Accounts for Scotland can be seen below under "Publication of Input-Output Tables and Multipliers for Scotland 1998-2007".
Difference between ONS Regional Accounts raw GVA estimates and published Scottish Use table values Published SUT estimate minus Regional Accounts raw estimates (£m)
note - only showing Regional Accounts categories where changes have been made
|Regional Accounts Category ||1998 ||1999 ||2000 ||2001 ||2002 ||2003 ||2004 |
|A: Agriculture, forestry and fishing || || || || || || || |
|CA: Manufacture of food etc ||-130 ||-90 || || || || || |
|CDE: Manufacture of petroleum and chemicals etc || || || || ||99 ||100 ||100 |
|CF: Manufacture of pharmaceuticals || || || || || || ||-100 |
|CH: Manufacture of basic metals and products || || || || || || || |
|CL: Manufacture of transport equipment || || || || || || || |
|D: Electricity, gas etc ||-600 ||-280 ||-250 || || || || |
|E: Water supply; sewerage, waste etc || || || || || || || |
|F: Construction ||74 ||195 ||316 ||170 ||293 ||541 ||420 |
|J: Information and communication || || || || || || || |
|Q: Human health and social work activities || || || || || || || |
|R: Arts, entertainment and recreation || || || || || ||-141 || |
|Regional Accounts GVA ||64,257 ||64,850 ||67,520 ||72,442 ||75,844 ||80,148 ||85,703 |
|Scottish Use Table GVA ||63,598 ||64,673 ||67,584 ||72,610 ||76,234 ||80,646 ||86,122 |
| || || || || || || || |
|Regional Accounts Category ||2005 ||2006 ||2007 ||2008 ||2009 ||2010 ||2011 |
|A: Agriculture, forestry and fishing ||60 ||50 ||47 ||-7 ||118 ||249 ||304 |
|CA: Manufacture of food etc || || ||178 ||241 ||467 ||630 ||605 |
|CDE: Manufacture of petroleum and chemicals etc || || ||75 ||74 ||50 || || |
|CF: Manufacture of pharmaceuticals ||-200 ||-380 ||-420 ||90 ||180 || || |
|CH: Manufacture of basic metals and products || || || ||150 || ||200 ||145 |
|CL: Manufacture of transport equipment || || || ||104 ||147 ||119 ||83 |
|D: Electricity, gas etc || || || ||500 ||351 ||480 ||766 |
|E: Water supply; sewerage, waste etc || || || ||-127 || || || |
|F: Construction ||541 ||408 ||664 ||408 ||722 ||667 ||722 |
|J: Information and communication || || || || || ||299 ||299 |
|Q: Human health and social work activities || || || || || ||365 || |
|R: Arts, entertainment and recreation || ||-91 || || ||-166 || ||-170 |
|Regional Accounts GVA ||90,394 ||96,826 ||99,720 ||103,896 ||102,652 ||102,275 ||105,943 |
|Scottish Use Table GVA ||90,796 ||96,812 ||100,263 ||105,331 ||104,520 ||105,280 ||108,690 |
A: Agriculture, forestry and fishing
The fall in GVA seen in Regional Accounts (RA) data from 2005 onwards is not seen in Scottish Government Agriculture Output, Input and Income Statistics. Following advice from Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services and the UK Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs the Supply and Use Tables are constrained to the Scottish Government data.
CA: Manufacture of food etc.
The Annual Business Survey (ABS) and other data sources suggest stronger growth from 2007 onwards.
CDE: Manufacture of petroleum and chemicals etc.
ABS and other data sources suggest some deviation from Regional Accounts estimates.
CF: Manufacture of pharmaceuticals
Regional Accounts strong growth in 2004 to 2007 is not seen in the ABS.
CH: Manufacture of basic metals and products
ABS data suggests higher GVA in 2008, 2010 and 2011.
CL: Manufacture of transport equipment
Negative Gross Operating Surplus in UK data is not seen in the ABS data.
D: Electricity, gas etc.
ABS and other data sources show no fall in GVA estimates between 1998 to 2000 and suggest higher growth from 2008 onwards.
E: Water Supply; sewerage, waste etc.
Regional Accounts Gross Operating Surplus spike in 2008 is not seen in the ABS data.
ABS and other data sources suggest higher overall GVA, these are closer to Blue Book 2012 based Regional Accounts estimates.
H: Transportation and storage
Blue Book 2013 based Regional Accounts estimates more in line with our previously published GVA, the old adjustment is no longer required.
J: Information and communication
The large spike seen in Blue Book 2012 based Regional Accounts estimates for 2007 no longer seen in 2013 based estimates, the old adjustment to 2007 is no longer required. ABS data suggest no fall in GOS in 2010 and 2011.
K: Financial and insurance activities
Blue Book 2013 based Regional Accounts estimates are more in line with our previously published GVA, the old adjustment is no longer required.
Q: Human health and social work activities
Large drop in Regional Accounts GOS estimate in 2010 is not seen in the ABS and other data sources.
R: Arts, entertainment and recreation
Blue Book 2013 based Regional Accounts have introduced large spikes in GOS in 2003, 2006 and 2009, these and a spike in Compensation of Employees in 2011 are not seen in the ABS.
Scottish I-O Team