| Title | Sustainability - greenhouse gas emissions. Purpose Target. |
Associated Targets | To reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the period to 2011. To reduce greenhouse emissions by 80% by 2050. |
Brief Description | The global imperative to address climate change demands a focus on harmful emissions. The sustainability indicator on reducing emissions sets an ambitious numerical target over the long term and provides for the setting of an accompanying short term target. These targets support UK, EU and world action to address the challenge of climate change. Sustainability is one of Government's desired characteristics of growth, as set out in the Government Economic Strategy. The Sustainability 'golden rule' is to ensure that economic growth is sustainable. The indicator aims to monitor the contribution that Scotland is making to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. The short term target is a comparative measure of reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions which occur during the term of this Government to 2011. The long term target is an 80% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions from a baseline of 1990, mirroring the requirement of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. |
Strategic Objective(s) to Which Indicator Relates | This indicator informs progress in relation to all five strategic objectives: Greener;
Wealthier and Fairer;
Healthier;
Safer and Stronger; and
Smarter. The indicator informs progress towards a Greener Scotland by measuring greenhouse gas emissions. Both the long and short term targets are mandatory, based on the targets established in the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. The indicator also informs progress towards a wealthier and fairer Scotland since Scottish businesses will benefit by being leaders in the technology to mitigate against climate change. The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 introduces the target framework and new powers which support this indicator. Global action to stem emissions will also lead to progress towards a healthier, safer and stronger and smarter Scotland. |
More Detailed Definitions | |
Definitions of Keywords | For this target, as for the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, the greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and the F-gases - hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride. "Emissions" include domestic emissions allocated to Scotland together with emissions allocated to Scotland from international aviation and international shipping as published on the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory website. Here "net" emissions, means those emissions taking account of trading in carbon as detailed in the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. |
Evidence Source | Both targets will use the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory disaggregated greenhouse gas inventory and estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from international aviation and shipping as the main evidence source. Information on trading in carbon units under the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme are collected by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and the Environment Agency (EA). |
Baseline and Past Trends | For both targets, a time series, including the most up-to-date data, is available on the Scotland Performs website.
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/scotPerforms/purposes/sustainability In common with international requirements and the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, for the long term target 1990 will be used as the base year for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, and 1995 for all other gases. The short term target is intended to reflect the emission reductions made during the lifetime of this administration. 2006 will be used as the baseline year for the short term target for all gases. (In accordance with the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, a statutory target for 2011 will be announced by June 2010.) |
Methodology for Data Source | The indicator will use the sum of the greenhouse gas emissions allocated to Scotland in the disaggregated greenhouse gas inventory (taking account of any removals such as those resulting from afforestation) together with emissions from international aviation and shipping, expressed as tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Changes to the estimation methodology may result in changes to the published emission figures for previous years. This figure will be adjusted depending on the number of carbon units traded. In addition to units allocated to individual sites, Scotland will also take responsibility for a share of any UK allocation that is auctioned. Until a formal method has been agreed, the share to be used will equate to: Allocated units to Scottish sites/Allocated units to UK sites. The allocated units to be used will be those allocated for the year in which the auction takes place. For Phase I of the ETS, where a small amount of unused units from the New Entry Reserve were auctioned in 2007 (and where DECC have allocated the sales equally over the period 2005-2007), the units to be used will be those allocated for the whole of Phase I. Regulations under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, detailing the accounting method to be used will be published by June 2010. For the present, net emissions are defined thus:
Net greenhouse gas emissions =
greenhouse gas emissions + units allocated - units surrendered |
Data Ownership and Quality Assurance | The inventory data are those currently published by AEA (Environment) under contract to DECC, SG, WAG and DOENI. AEA conduct detailed quality assurance. The disaggregated data are not National Statistics but the UK data on which the disaggregations are made are National Statistics. Detailed data on carbon units traded in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme are collected by the Environment Agency. |
Publication of Data | Statistics will be published in the environment statistics section of the SG website:
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Environment The emissions figures are those published in the disaggregated greenhouse gas inventory on the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory website. Detailed data on allocations and carbon units traded in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) are published on the UK Emissions Registry operated by the Environment Agency and the European Union. Figures on carbon amounts auctioned under the EUETS in Phase II are published by the Debt Management Office. |
Methodology for Recent Change Arrow on Scotland | This evaluation is based on the % change in the tonnage of emissions. If the change is less than ±1% of the previous years figure, this suggests that the emission levels are more likely to have been maintained, rather than showing change. A decrease in the tonnage of >1% suggests that the position is improving; whereas an increase in the tonnage of >1% suggests the position is worsening. We are currently in discussion with the contractors regarding providing an uncertainty figure for Scotland for the short term trend. The contractors have looked at this issue but report that "the correlations between activity data and emission factors between adjacent years are not currently well understood, and it has therefore not been possible to produce a meaningful estimate at this time". The contractors have provided an estimate for the uncertainty of the long term trend in GHG emissions excluding international aviation and shipping and not taking account of trading in the EUETS. The contractors estimate that the 95% confidence interval for the change between the 1990 base year and 2007 in such GHG emissions for Scotland lies between -9% and -29%, with a central estimate of -20%. |
Future issues or reviews | The methodology used to estimate greenhouse gas emissions is under continuous review and each year any changes introduced are applied to the whole time series. The changes might also include additional routes of emissions that were not previously identified. |