The Scottish Government

Public perception of the general crime rate in the local area.

Associated Targets

To increase positive public perception of the general crime rate in the local area.

Brief Description

Estimates the proportion of people who have a positive perception of the general crime rate in their local area as measured by the Scottish Crime and Victimisation Survey ( SCVS).

Strategic Objective(s) to Which Indicator Relates

This indicator informs progress in relation to:

Safer and Stronger

More Detailed Definitions

Definitions of Keywords

Public: Respondents to the SCVS, a representative sample of the adult Scottish population

Local area: within 15 minutes walk of the respondent's house

Positive perception: where people believe that crime has stayed the same or reduced in the past 2 years

General crime: the SCVS question used for measurement asks about "crime in general"

Evidence Source

The Scottish Crime and Victimisation Survey (SCVS)

Scotland's crime survey, the SCVS, provides a direct measure for this indicator by asking respondents who have stayed in their local area for 2 years or more about their perception of the crime level in the area over that period. The survey is conducted using a representative sample of the Scottish population.

The crime survey in Scotland was conducted as part of the British Crime Survey in 1982 and 1988. From 1993 to 2003 a Scotland specific survey was conducted under the title 'Scottish Crime Survey' ( SCS) and then as the 'Scottish Crime and Victimisation Survey'( SCVS) in 2004 and 2006. From 2008 the crime survey in Scotland will run continuously under the title 'Scottish Crime and Justice Survey' ( SCJS) with a larger sample size, providing data annually at Police Force level from 2008/09.

Scottish Crime Survey ( SCS)

1993: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/1999/01/66575548-b5a9-441f-834a-da44182da2af

1996: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/1998/12/5d2711f3-543b-4a34-9973-05bbba9e202e

2000: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2002/05/14407/1405

2003: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/12/20379/48077

Scottish Crime and Victimisation Survey ( SCVS)

2004: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2007/01/16115536/0

2006: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2007/10/12094216/0

Scottish Crime and Victimisation Survey (SCVS) Technical Report

http://www.data-archive.ac.uk/doc/5784/mrdoc/pdf/5784technicalreport.pdf

Scottish Crime and Justice Survey ( SCJS)

First publication expected in October 2009

Baseline and Past Trends

The most recent data from the Scottish Crime and Victimisation Survey 2006, provides the baseline. The 2006 survey estimated that almost two thirds (65%) of respondents thought that crime in their local area had stayed the same or reduced in the past two years. This represented an improvement from 2000 and 2003 estimates, when a little over a half of respondents (55%) thought this.

Past trends are set out in the Table 4.1 of the Main Report from the 2006 Scottish Crime and Victimisation Survey ( http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2007/10/12094216/0)

The graph on Scotland Performs draws on data from a number of Scottish Crime Surveys:

2000 Scottish Crime Survey n= 4,512
2003 Scottish Crime Survey n= 4,443
2006 Scottish Crime and Victimisation Survey n= 4,433

Please refer to the section: Evidence Source for details of relevant publications for each of the surveys.

Methodology for Data Source

The SCVS used a pre-selected sample which aims to be representative of households in Scotland and the sample size is approximately 5,000 interviews. Interviews were conducted face-to-face using CAPI and CASI for sensitive topics.

The estimated confidence interval for this indicator at Scotland level is +/- 1.5% taking into account a standard design effect of 1.2 in this calculation.

Full details are available in the SCVS Technical Report 2006, available upon request.

Data Ownership and Quality Assurance

The evidence source is currently designated as Official Statistics in the Scottish Government The SCJS is an externally commissioned social research project. The ownership of the research materials and of the reports lies with Scottish Ministers.

Publication of Data

Overall public perception of crime in the local neighbourhood from 2008 onwards will be measured by the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey and be available annually from Summer 2009. Reports will be available from the publications section of the Scottish Government website: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/Recent. The SCJS dataset will be held on the UK Data Archive http://www.data-archive.ac.uk

Methodology for Recent Change Arrow on Scotland

This evaluation is based on: any difference within +/- 1.0 percentage points of previous survey suggests that the position is more likely to be maintaining than showing any change. An increase of 1.0 percentage points or more suggests the position is improving; whereas a decrease of 1.0 percentage points or more suggests the position is worsening.

Future issues or reviews

Baseline data is from the SCVS 2006. From September 2009 onwards, data for this indicator will be provided by the SCJS at national, police force area and community justice authority levels.