| Title | Value of Scotland's total exports, including trade with the rest of the UK. |
National Indicator/Target | To grow exports at a faster average rate than Scottish GDP in current prices over the term of this Parliament. |
Brief Description | The indicator is an estimate of the value of goods and services that Scotland exports to other countries, including to the rest of the UK. |
Strategic Objective(s) to Which Indicator Relates | This indicator will inform progress in relation to the Wealthier & Fairer Strategic Objective. Exports is an important indicator of long-term trends in economic performance and international competitiveness and should form part of any economic narrative. |
More Detailed Definitions | |
Definitions of Keywords | Exports are defined as the sale of goods or services by businesses located in Scotland to customers residing outwith Scotland. In accordance with National Accounting principles, the oil and gas sector are excluded from the analysis as this is not attributed to any one area of the UK - termed "extra-regio" activity. |
Evidence Source | Scotland does not have a customs border or a mandatory trade survey and is therefore not able to track trade with the precision that other countries can. The Scottish Government's Global Connections Survey ( GCS) estimates, which extend back to 2002, are based on a voluntary sample of Scottish business and are therefore subject to sampling variability. This is particularly acute for estimates of trade with the 'rest of the UK' (estimated to account for approximately 70% of total exports) as larger companies are often unable to break down their intra- UK trade. The international and Rest of UK exports figures are estimated using separate processes, and are released at different times. The GCS is the only export survey covering all sectors of the Scottish economy. GCS responses are supplemented with UK surveys and other data sources to account for non response before being weighted to reflect the entire population of Scottish business. Estimates are provided in current prices and in £ millions. The source for the GDP estimates will be the Office for National Statistics ( ONS) regional GVA estimates (Regional Accounts). These are current price estimates in basic prices and do not include "extra regio" activity. |
Baseline and Past Trends | The baseline for the target is 2006 (calendar year). Estimates of international and intra-UK trade for 2007 are currently available on the Scottish Government web site ( http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Exports/GCSData). In 2007, total exports grew at 4.8% compared to GDP growth of 5.6% - a gap of -0.8% points. Source: Global Connections Survey, ONS - regional accounts |
Methodology for Data Source | GCS survey responses are supplemented by other sources before being weighted to reflect the Scottish population. The sampling frame is the Inter Departmental Business Register - which is a list of UK businesses maintained by the Office for National Statistics ( ONS) and combines the former Central Statistical Office (CSO) VAT based business register and the former Employment Department (ED) employment statistics system. It complies with European Union regulation 2186/93 on harmonisation of business registers for statistical purposes. |
Data Ownership and Quality Assurance | The Global Connections Survey ( GCS) is a relatively new series (currently 5 years) and is not currently classified as National Statistics. However it is produced in accordance with National Statistics principles, with the survey quality continually improving over time. It is unlikely that these exports figures will be classified as National Statistics in the near future as the response rates are low and the survey is not mandatory. Estimates of exports to the rest of the UK are currently classed as "in development", and feedback is currently been sought on the methodology and resulting analysis with a view to developing this series further. GCS is conducted by the Scottish Government in association with Scottish Enterprise, therefore both organisations jointly own the survey responses. However the final estimates are supplemented with other data sources to account for non-response and therefore only the Scottish Government own the final estimates. |
Publication of Data | GCS estimates are published on the Scottish Government website. International GCS estimates for 2007 were published in early 2009, with estimates for exports to the Rest of the UK published in Spring 2009. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Exports/GCSIntroduction The GCS revisions policy incorporates new information into the export analysis which often reflect improvements made possible by the availability of additional years' survey responses. Therefore previously published estimates are subject to revision. GCS export estimates are also included in the annual compendium publication: Scottish Economic Statistics which is likely to be published in the summer. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/PubSES |
Methodology for Recent Change Arrow on Scotland | The evaluation is based on the gap between annual exports growth and annual GDP growth. Any difference in the gap within +/- 0.1 percentage points of last year's figure suggests that the position is more likely to be maintaining than showing any change. A decrease in the gap of 0.1 percentage points or more suggests the position is improving; whereas an increase of 0.1 percentage points or more suggests the position is worsening. |