1. Macroeconomic Impacts of Demographic Change in Scotland
Award Holders: Professor P McGregor, Professor R Wright, Professor J Swales - University of Strathclyde
Summary: This project considered the potential macroeconomic impacts of demographic change, based on the UK Government Actuaries Department (GAD) projections, using the Fraser of Allander's model of the Scottish economy (AMOS). The analysis focused on the predicted effects of demographic change on levels of economic activity, in particular its impact on the labour market (i.e. the size of the workforce and wages); the economic impact of alternative projections of net migration; and the likely effects of policies such as the Fresh Talent Initiative.
Status: End of Award Report released on ESRC website on 13 February 2007.
Links: ESRC website
Economic Impact of Scottish Demographic Changes Report
The analysis in the macroeconomic impacts of demographic change in Scotland was based on the 2004-based population projections for Scotland. The economic impact of Scottish demographic changes, published in September 2008, provides updated analyses to take account of the 2006-based population projections.
Link to the Report: Economic Impact of Scottish Demographic Changes