[SEETLLD CSFSG-P05]

REVIEW OF SCOTLAND'S COLLEGES

STEERING GROUP: COLLEGES' LONG TERM STRATEGIC FUTURE

WORKSHOPS ON DRIVERS AND SCENARIOS

(To download a pdf version of this document click here)

Purpose

1. To seek the steering group's views on a possible approach to workshops to identify and prioritise drivers and to develop scenarios. The main purpose of today's meeting is to agree how best to approach the first of these workshops, although it may be prudent to consider both.

Background

2. The evidence gathering stage of the RoSCo Futures work has been extended to ensure that all Principals and a number of other stakeholders - such as the trades unions and business organisations - are given the opportunity to contribute.

3 The next stage is to prioritise drivers and to develop scenarios through planned workshops. An earlier meeting of this steering group agreed that they would consider the need for external facilitation expertise.

Consideration

4. The views of the College Principals and Chairs summarised in paper PO3 as well as the Open Space report (both circulated) provide the basis for moving to the next stage. A suggested approach for the drivers workshop is outlined in Annex A, and a possible scenarios workshop at Annex B. These suggest a purpose for both workshops, as well identifying preparatory work required of all participants in order to make the workshops productive.

5. These workshops will require effective facilitation. It might be possible to use an external facilitator, although notice is now short. It might be possible to identify an experienced facilitator from one of the stakeholder organisations involved in RoSCo. There might also be an option to invite someone involved in the First Minister's Futures work to help us think about the wider context.

Action

6. The Steering Group is invited to comment on this approach.

Reviews Team:

Review of Scotland's Colleges

June 2006WORKSHOP TO PRIORITISE DRIVERS

27 JULY 2006

Purpose - to identify and to prioritise the key drivers of change[1]in the College sector over the next 15 years.

Preparation

Read summaries of Principals, Board Chairs and other conversations, the Open Space reports, as well as First Minister's Futures lecture, supporting strategic audit and trends papers.

In the light of these, and general experience/knowledge, come prepared with a list of the main drivers for change in the College sector over the next fifteen years. From this list pick:

• your top positive driver that will be most important for the College sector in 2020; and
• your top negative driver.

On the day

09.30-09.45 Introductions and purpose of session

09.45-10.15 Drivers discussion

• Divide into groups of 4 or 5 people to consider "What will be the main drivers of change dictating where the College sector might be in 2020?" Start with a long list and agree the three most significant drivers of change - and why.

10.15-10.45 Feedback

• One person from each group feed back to the group what the three main drivers will be and why, in no more than 3 minutes. Each of the drivers to be written up on a flipchart.

10.45-11.00 Coffee (list of drivers written or typed up during break for each group)

11.00-11.30 Connections, trends and issues

• Divide into different groups of 4 or 5.
• Each group take the list of drivers (written or typed up) and identify the connections, trends, and issues that come from them.

11.30-12.00 Feedback

• Feedback from each group in no more than 3 minutes each.
• Discuss output, including implications for drivers, such as scope to combine / reword any drivers.

12.00-12.05 Prioritisation

• Individuals invited to vote on what are the most important drivers for change in the College sector overall.

12.05-12.15 Closing discussion

• Clarify output - what are the top 10 drivers?
• Discuss implications
• Clarify next steps

12.15 CloseWORKSHOP TO DEVELOP SCENARIOS

14 SEPTEMBER 2006

Purpose - to identify a range of possible scenarios[2]based on those key drivers with a high impact and high likelihood.

Preparation

Review output from drivers workshop and consider both the level of likelihood and level of impact of each of the top 10 drivers.

On the day

09.30-10.00 Introductions

• Purpose of session
• Recap from last session - what were the top 10 drivers identified?

10.00-10.45 Impact and likelihood

• Divide into groups of 4 or 5 to discuss top 10 drivers
• What are the factors affecting the impact and likelihood of each driver?

10.45-11.00 Coffee

11.00-11.15 Feedback

• Each group feed back on factors affecting the impact and likelihood of each driver

11.15-11.45 Impact and likelihood

• Introduce impact / likelihood matrix
• Agree as plenary and by consensus the location of each driver in matrix as appropriate
• Discuss implications - what does it mean for drivers in each quadrant?

11.45-12.15 Scenario options and development

• Which drivers (high impact and high likelihood) provide basis for scenarios? (Try some alternatives.)
• Agree four scenarios based on two pairs of opposing drivers
• Identify 4 groups - one for each scenarios

12.15-12.45 Description of scenarios (part 1)

• Each of four groups develop a story or narrative around their scenarios - what would things look like in 2020 based on this scenario?

12.45-13.45 Lunch

13.45-14.15 Description of scenarios (part 2)

• Four groups continue to develop story or narrative ready for feeding back at plenary

14.15-15.00 Feedback and discussion

• Each group feeds back their story to describe each scenario in plenary.
• Are the scenarios plausible?
• How challenging or different are they from today - and why?
• Which scenarios are most favourable to learners? And to businesses?
• How best can the College sector respond to each of these scenarios?

15.00-15.10 Further work

• Agree what further work is required

15.10-15.15 Closing remarks, including clarification of next steps

15.15 Close

[1] Drivers are the key forces which are driving and shaping change in relation to the policy area or aspects of the future you are considering. The extent to which we are able to influence those key drivers will vary significantly, e.g. we will not be able to influence the rise of new global players like China or India, but we can make efforts to influence traffic levels in Scotland. While we may not be able to influence some key drivers, what will remain important is how we prepare and/or respond to them.

[2] Scenarios are alternative descriptions or stories of how the future might unfold. They compile information about divergent trends and possibilities into internally consistent images of plausible alternative futures. They are designed to systematically explore future challenges and opportunities and to aid in strategy development. You end up with a set of several different scenarios or pictures, and typically you would come up with 4 different images of the future. They can aid in the evaluation of strategies by posing several alternative sets of conditions that strategies can be tested against. Each strategy can be evaluated to assess whether it is robust enough to work in most or all of the scenarios.

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